Hoping someone will be interested enough to figure this out.

Last night in Sun Million, 250 ppl left from 8900 starting, I have 522k at the 7.5/15k don't remember ante level. Avg stack is 323k I believe.

Power outage. I'm down for almost an hour, come back and I have 302k with 175 ppl left and average at 505k.

I end up busting in 128th blah blah 4.5/1 but who cares about that, I just want to know what the power outage concievably cost me in real life EV, assuming things just continued as they had been prior to power outage (dumb assumption, w/e, also not the point of the thread).

Anyone who cares to help is appreciated, thanks.

I am not sure what you mean by if the power hadn't gone out what ev did you lose "assuming things just continued as they had been prior to power outage". Do you mean assume that you have the same percentage of chips in play (equity)? Do you mean you have the same number of BBs? Or the same stack size compared to the average stack size?

I guess you could just calculate your equity before your power went out (what money you would expect to make given your stack size, if you ignored skill level), calculate the same for your equity after the power outage, and then figure out the difference.

couple hundred dollars if you're neutral EV
but yeah do what pgh said if you really want a true answer it is not hard

I estimate you lost about 2k equity.

I guess I mean that yes, let's assume my stack would be worth the same relative value AFTER the outage as it was prior. AND then let's take that value and apply it to an ICM model to figure out what my chips are worth in equity at the after point described. I'm admitting outright that I don't know how to do the math and wondering if anyone who does would care to show me.

Thanks.

You could try this:

http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html

You can probably also get an approximate answer by doing this calculation before and after outage:

(your_chips / total_chips_in_play) * prize_pool_remaining

(Not sure how accurate that is.)

Even this simple model confuses my even yet simpler mind.

Here are the numbers I got from the link I posted above:

Before
Stack equity : $4709.12

After
Stack equity : $3236.62

Difference: $1472.50

wtf, get in your car and drive to the nearest place that has wifi / power. If this happened to me I would grab my laptop, sprint for the car, and get somewhere as quickly as humanly possible. Go to your neighbor's house and tell him you'll give him $500 to plug into his power outlets or something.

I live in the woods. Literally. And going to a neighbors house at 11pm to hook to their wi fi is not gonna happen. I only have 3 neighbors who even know me to begin with.

Does anyone else think this thread belongs in the WHINES and brags section of the forums?

350 (tm Zima LLC all rights reserved)

lol do you want to sue your power company for the amount or wtf do you care about this?

also: you should request the hand history from stars and when you see that you had AA ten ****ing times in that hour, yikes you can party

Move on.

Probably you gained some extra money being blind out for that long.

masochism