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Nightly 162 - Big draw close to the Bubble Nightly 162 - Big draw close to the Bubble

03-30-2016 , 06:38 PM
3 to the $$$, no major history with Villain.
What would you do here? Flatting and c/f if the turn bricks, or raising?

What do you think about jamming, as it puts max pressure on villain, and he can only call with the top of his range (flushes, sets/two pair, TP+flushdraw) and may fold hands which are currently ahead (1 pair w/o diamond)?

Disadvantage of flatting is that we will only see 1 card, as villain is probably going to double barrel the turn with any of his value hands...



[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $150 Buy-in (350/700 blinds, 85 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37287299

BTN: 34,183 (48.8 bb)
SB: 13,336 (19.1 bb)
BB: 24,021 (34.3 bb)
UTG+2: 7,024 (10 bb)
MP1: 41,118 (58.7 bb)
Hero (MP2): 25,906 (37 bb)
MP3: 17,989 (25.7 bb)
CO: 40,262 (57.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A Q
2 folds, Hero raises to 1,400, 4 folds, BB calls 700

Flop: (3,830) 5 J 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,800, BB raises to 5,285, Hero ?
03-30-2016 , 06:54 PM
Definitely not jamming here, I would flat and see a turn. I dont think V would play top pair this way unless you had a good read on him.
03-30-2016 , 07:00 PM
Checking the flop is underrated.
03-30-2016 , 10:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrudge
Checking the flop is underrated.
That.

BB's range smashes that board way more than yours does. Although our hand is one of the fewer ones we can safely c-bet you can definitely check back here some % of the time especially with two overs.
03-30-2016 , 10:27 PM
'smashes that board'
03-31-2016 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by senorbb
'smashes that board'
if you can't see how bb's range is much stronger on that board than ours than you are ******ed, mate
03-31-2016 , 12:00 PM
damn, guess im ******ed then
03-31-2016 , 05:37 PM
there's def hands to check back with on the flop and i dont think this is one of them
04-01-2016 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson
damn, guess im ******ed then
Me too.

First instinct was jam. Running it through a FE calculator he has to fold more than 30% of the time to show a profit (assuming we have 33% equity against a bet-calling range of {JJ,55,22, dd, 52s, QdJ, KdJ, JTd, J9d}). So jamming probably isn't profitable against a nit, but is probably profitable (or close) against someone who has a c/r-fold range here.

Also, if we lose we still can prob stall into the mincash.

      
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