Was perplexed as to why DNegs didn't gii preflop against buttons range with A4.

Folded to CL (McKeehen) on the button and he opens to 800k on 200/400k 50k.

Pot is ~1.8M preflop, Daniel has 5.8M, meaning Daniel can increase stack by 30% if he generates a fold and is ahead of V's button raising range and will sometimes be ahead even when called. Gii > Fold > Call here imo

http://www.wsop.com/m/updates/?grid=...rr=5&curpage=2

Thoughts??

Hard to disagree.

Smallball tho.

Lolz +5.8M hahah

Although shoving pre is more profitable than flatting, it is still a higher variance line. Given the huge payjumps and icm considerations, i think he wanted to reduce his chance of busting as much as possible.

shoving pre less variance than ck shoving flop

Not in Daniel's mind -- I really think his line here is to decrease his risk of busting. I think he might actually be c/c some flops here (gutshot, ace high on dry boards, pair of fours).

Both calling and shoving are +EV, it's just a matter of which one is more +EV. I'm sure shoving is if you ran some deep calcs. Also got to think that the button will fold some marginally +EV calls for himself because he is the absolute dream scenario for a chip leader to abuse ICM, so with the ~90% opening range from button he will fold enough to probably shove here a wide range, even given the two huge pay jumps coming up.

But I think DN busts here a lot less by calling because he is only shoving with a solid piece and not just any piece (which makes calling less +EV overall, as well).

Choicecentor>ev calculator

Even though A4o is way ahead of chipleader's opening range, A4o does very poorly against a calling range when he does get looked up. So while it's definitely +cEV to shove, it's way less variance to take a flop. Especially when there are a few other very short stacks as well, and you still have some decent chips if you call and fold to a whiffed flop. That being said, since chipleader was opening pretty much every single hand, it would be hard to fault him for shoving. Maybe he read him as a bit stronger than normal, I don't know. I thought it was pretty standard.

Nope

i'd say shove > call > fold tho

I feel like flatting here and only playing back at V on A high boards is really bad with this stack size. Also, if V is opening -~80-90% of hands in this spot, how can we confidently call raises or c/r all in on the flops against such a wide range? If I am McKeehan I am double barreling a lot here with ICM and putting a lot of pressure on Negreanu as he either has middling Broadway hands/ connectors or really weak aces in this spot with slight chance of AA-QQ.

For discussion purposes, what is your 3B shoving range here if you are Daniel? I feel like we have significant FE here as we are shoving 16.5BB over a 2BB raise even tho he has heaps. Yes, it's true that we don't do well against his calling range with A4o.

I think in game I am folding here preflop. I'd probably have a gii range here of something like...

A8s+,A10o+, 55+ ish , wug?

i'm not saying shoving pre is less variance than taking a flop, i'm saying shoving pre is less variance than check shoving flop

shoving pre w/ A4o is less variance than taking a flop imo

villain is opening 100% and calling BB's shove with maybe 15%... villain has a lot of incentive to keep the bubble going so likely isnt raisecalling 44 or KT or A6

compare that to taking a flop with a large decision tree of outcomes where you have to fight against a 100% range with a hand that is often outside the threshold of showdown equity but often has hotcold equity.

this hand ended up being a cooler but DN gonna have to peel a bunch of rando flops and get into weird turn/river spots... i think that's more variance'y than just picking up the free preflop monies.

fwiw i dont hate daniels logic in peeling lots of hands preflop, but A4o just fits much better into a preflop shove. so hard to realize that equity postflop and villain is a strong player.

Daniel was BB right? I would go a lot wider, but I dont know how tight overall we need to be with the payjumps. Button was opening 90% at least prob 100%. I go 22+, KJo+, any ace, for starters. Id have trouble folding QJs JTs here.

definitely jamming the smaller pairs and crappy aces cuz they play poorly postflop

a lot of those playable hands you can make the argument for peeling, ie peel the QJs as well as peel the J5s and maybe even peel the JJ-AA. BTN's on 100% so i think potodds pre are good enough with a huge portion of range even w/ ICM considered... would have to do ICM calcs and I'll leave that for the pros

only comment I'll make is that on a side note think it's pretty obvious to a lot of people (he confirmed himself) that he essentially doesn't rly care about icm at all. he wants to win. although he probably cares a little about November 9 (?) so joe would be making a mistake by opening that wide as say 100.

wonder if there's merit to flatting the cbet...
guessing mckeehen's cbetting range is polarized to ax, kq/kj/qj/q10/k10, FDs, and then all unpaired low cards; would guess he's checking back bare jx, qx, 10x, low kx. so his equity isn't that great when his shove is called, and he's mostly folding out air. yes, draws+air may three barrel and give him trouble, but he can eval as it goes

lmao if he wants to win, then ****ing shove

i don't think his reasoning for flatting is icm, it's because he feels/thinks it's lower variance and/or has postflop edge, stuff like that. against the 'extreme' case of 100pc opening range shoving is not anywhere near as high variance as it may seem to some

by flatting daniel gave joe a chance to hit the flop which he did big time.. i know daniel likes to play small ball but he should definitely shove the ace 5 handed.. joe folds j3dd.. he's still the best..

Even if he thinks he has postflop edge, which is a tougher argument OOP against a competent table CL with ~3M in tracked MTT live earnings, it does not seem like a good spot with a 16 BB stack. I think it's a different situation when he has 30+ BB and can check/call down several streets w/out putting tourney life on the line. V is obv likely to put a lot more pressure on Daniel's stack size as well.

Actually, I don't completely disagree with poster who said there was some merit to letting a card peel on the flop and just giving up if fl/str draw comes in ott. Reason being is you can gii on dry turns and not necessarily give
Joe odds to call off. (If for instance he only had a flush draw or straight draw)

Seems like a spot where Negreanu either wins a little or losses a lot most of the time. Honestly, I think V isn't getting it in on the flop much worse than a coinflip very often (he was 48% here).

If we are calling A4o out of the BB (when we are deeper), our plan should be something like the following.

- C/C low/dry looking boards and those with an A with plan to lead ott
- C/C single high card (non-A) w/ plan to either lead or give up on turn.
- c/r wet boards with an A
- c/c low/mid connected boards with plan to lead ott
- c/f flops that hit a lot of his Broadway / mid connector range like 109K and the like

Flatting will be better if villain opens a normal frequency, but as he starts to get out of line you really need to jam to just make him fold all the BS hands that have tons of equity vs A4.

Crai on that board tho?
Seems like the easiest cc of all time

^^ +1.

Would much rather shove pre and call on the flop.