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My Busto Hand in the Bellagio 25K - opinions? My Busto Hand in the Bellagio 25K - opinions?

04-23-2008 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by montanad12
The most important factor that strikes me here is how do Dario and Amir percieve you at the current time. You didn't talk about this at all. I really like you're play if they percieve you as a tight nit. If they see you as an aggressive tough player, I prefer a shove.
I'm presuming that you believe they will respect a good re-raise on the flop from him and he will therefore know where he stands. However, given his stack size I think they would gamble on the flop and call any re-raise with a wide range. The only chance he has of them respecting a re-raise is preflop, but the range will still be high for the re-raiser ahead of him.

Also, I'd give chip value some consideration here. Perhaps my EV is greater with a call than a shove, but the pot is big enough that given chip value I'd be prepared to take it down now if I could.
04-23-2008 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBeeks


MY EQUITY FOR CALLING PREFLOP:

I’m going to assume (for ease of calculation) that Dario will never smooth call when I call Amir, but will only shove or fold. Also, I am assuming Dario will shove a slightly wider range when I call than he would have called if I shoved, and Amir will overcall slightly tighter. (Feel free to comment on this assumption).

Dario’s shoving range: TT+,AQs+,AKo (3.8%)
Amir’s calling range if Dario shoves: QQ+ (1.4%)

Dario is aggro but not stupid. He will weight your range as KK+ after you flat the reraise and he will assume that he has no fold equity. He is not shoving TT,JJ,QQ,AK,AQ after this action... and if he does shove Amir is definitely folding QQ and maybe KK.


Quote:
For the cases where Dario folds and I take the flop, I make the following assumptions (regardless of the flop texture):

Amir will c-bet half the pot 80% of the time, and call my shove 60%...
I also vehemently disagree with this assumption. I think that you are turning your hand face up more than you realize with your flat call and I think that Amir is usually shutting down completely on flops he misses (unless he has QQ as an overpair that he cant get away from or has AK that flops a K or something like that) Even if Amir is as sloppy as you seem to think there is no way that he is betting EIGHTY PERCENT of his range after you show this tremendous strength with your flat call.
04-23-2008 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBeeks
so if I three bet Amir I think it's likely I take the pot down here, as I think my hand becomes pretty transparent.

wait wait, you called to avoid your hand becoming transparent?
04-23-2008 , 02:58 PM
For the random, semi-unknown player in these big buyin tourneys, I would put the range of a button shove in this situation as QQ+, AK. I would put the range of a button call as JJ+, AQs+, AK. But hey, that's only my opinion given my experience. And I'm not saying that those ranges are optimal, just an observation from actual play, right or wrong. If this were the Sunday Million, no question that the range of a button shove is wider than that of a call. I totally agree that a button call here SHOULD indicate more strength, but in these tourneys, in this particular spot, I don't always think it does, because so many satellite qualifiers and nits just dont want to go bust on a weaker push that might get called.

p.s. By the way, I'm going to conceed the better play was to shove rather than call (based on overwhelming market reaction). But it still seems like a close decision.
04-23-2008 , 07:43 PM
a lot of people underestimate how much better it is to get your whole stack in with aces since a lot of their hands they'd get it in with you pre will be scared off on the flop.

      
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