Aussie Millions $1100 Turbo event prelim (okay technically post lim but w/e.) The blinds aren't turbo, it simply means players have 20 seconds to make their decision.

I'm at a fairly new table. On the first hand two players in MP limped for 150 to me on the button. I raised to 750 and when it folded back to the second limper he limp reraises to 3500 and i folded (we were about 7k effective.) He then showed 22. That's my only history with him, and the rest of the time at the table he's played fairly normal and accumulated well. He's a youngish guy, i'd guess mid 20's, and while I'm not sure I think he might be Euro, but I have no idea what kind.

The BB in this hand is a huge mega donk station that does a TON of calling. I would imagine the probable Euro is aware of this having played with him for a while. Giant station.

My stack: ~8k
CO: ~ 15k
BB: ~12k

Blinds 100/200. I hold T9 on the button.

Preflop: Folds to MP1, MP1 limps for 200, folds to CO, CO limps, I limp on the button, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: K T 9 (Pot 1000)
Checks around to me, I bet 800, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 folds, CO quickly calls.

Turn: 3 (Pot 3400)
BB checks, CO checks, I bet 2100, BB calls, CO calls.

River: 7
BB checks, CO leads 6500, hero?

i just think theres so many more combos of 1 pairs/combo draws turning into bluffs than exactly j8 that i dont see myself folding here

bet more on turn... river is gross, i dont see him bluffing here, but wtf can he have...J8dd i guess.

Fold. Just seems like he understands that the BB is a mega station and he sees no reason to raise if you'll keep betting and the BB keeps coming along. But now his turn flat looks absurdly strong and he's probably afraid you'll check back a ton of hands on the river. After river bet you're praying he had something like AJdd/AQdd and even these seem really really unlikely.

Geoff/charder what about QJ?

He doesnt at least raise the turn with the mega fish in the pot? Or at least check the river!? relative position ftw.

I suppose he'd raise turn if the BB was the hugest station ever, even braindead Aussie live players have to realise raising this turn is stupidly strong. Guess river depends on how wide he thinks Bond is value shoving

Def. pot the turn, and now fold

Bigger bet on turn, and with mega station in hand this should never be a bluff. Our perceived range is probably a K+, and a good hand has to fear we're checking river IP rather than trying to be greedy and going for 3 streets of value. I think J8 and QJ are at the top of his range. With 2 pair or set, I beleive he'd of had to raise with all the draws here either on flop or turn. So I fold

bond oh bond, i like mixing my play up here and maybe raising preflop if im playing fearless, which i tend to do on occasion, make it like 750-900. but as played i think flop bet is perfect as is turn(which will allow you to fold river). i think thats exactly what it does because i dont think this kid is trying to squeeze us off the best hand with kjd or something of that nature, if i didnt put in raise preflop id prolly just move on and keep chopping these ppl out.

If villain has a clue, your line should look pretty strong and it's pretty nuts to try to bluff you and the described bb here.

wow tuff spot man he should show qj everytime but a guy who 4 bets 22 for half his stack .... i prob spite call the asshat and feel owned on all sorts of levels

+1

I bet the turn bigger and fold the river while swearing on the inside.

he had 97dd, got you to fold the best hand, and had the other guy call him with worse.

Umm Fist pump call. I don't understand how you guys think it is a fold? How exactly do you think that 7 helps? K7? J8? QJ? You are not deep enough to fold this.

Seriously, there are just so many things that you beat and very few that can have you beat.

Easy fold in my opinion. What mikeJ said.

How do you figure its an easy fold? given the description of the villain, I just don't see how you can fold. Is he really bad enough to open limp with J8s? I would think his hand is much more likely to be something like KJ, KQ, JT, J9, etc.

If he had 2 pair or a set or a flopped straight, he would probably checkraise you on the turn to get more money in. Maybe raise it to something a bit bigger (Maybe a minraise).


I think the fact that bond is posting this hand, must mean he lost the hand. Because I just don't see anyone posting any convincing arguements for folding. The only arguement someone has made is "You've shown strength, it would be crazy to bluff."

There are so many things we beat??

It's closeish because villain is possibly euro and we're getting decent pot odds. I think this is a case where there isn't much that beats you but there isn't much you beat either. Like if you're ahead, it's vs a pretty discounted range of like KQ/KJ/97dd (inconsistent line, loose peel), if you're behind it's vs. a discounted range of K7s/QJ (expect K7s to bet flop usually and QJ to put in a raise somewhere before river) and J8s, where J8s honestly makes the most sense for his line. Like 0.1% of the time he's bluffing.

The CO overlimped, and it's not that bad of an overlimp with J8s.

Results?

I say it is an easy fold because I'm a station and they always show me nuts here. Forget logic, forget ranges, the gut tells me HE'S GOT IT.

this is an absurd assumption, no way your average 20 something euro knows what relative position is

i think riv is close and id just soul read the guy

Given the information as described I would call expecting to be shown one pair/missed draw type hands most of the time. The reason I say this is because you specifically noted that "CO quickly calls" on the flop. I just never see someone with set, top 2 or str8 ever making a quick call in a live game.

It would be interesting to know how quickly he acted on the turn and river and I'm sure there was live tell information that you haven't described here that might sway your decision, but I generally feel that his bet timing tell on the flop is likely to be the decisive one unless he shows up with some miraculous river-made hand such as J8s or K7s