We're like 30 something effective to start the hand, villain in question appears to be some online kid, however I get the impression he's mostly just clicking buttons. A quick view of his hendon mob suggests hes had one significant score a few years back but nothing much since. Didn't know his online name. No significant history between us, we played a bit together on day 1 and I didn't get out of line or anything. I haven't played many pots to showdown, and the one time I did, I had it vs some massive drooler. Were still a while to the money, less than 2 hours into day 2. He opens EP 9 handed, I flat 9c9d in MP, didn't think I could 3b/c and there were reshove stacks behind etc. Everyone else folds, flop 665ss he bets I flat, turn ks completing flush draw, he checks.

My quick thoughts were that his range is super capped when he checks the turn, didn't think he'd ever check boats/flushes so he mostly has air planning to give up or kx/some mid pair planning to c/c turn c/eval rivers. I didn't think I could ever get value from anything by checking back turn and vbetting rivers, nor did I ever expect him to check turn and bet rivers with air, so I planned to bet two vs a range I largely expect him to c/c turn and c/f rivers unimproved with (hands that have me crushed - kx, tt-qq), as well as hands I have crushed (77,88). I thought this line would maximize EV vs his turn check/call range (as mentioned I don't think I can ever get anymore value, can fold out parts of his range that have me crushed OTT by him c/cing turn and c/fing river, plus it seems evident there are lots more combos of hands that have me crushed when he c/c turn than hands I have crushed). River is an off suit 5 and I obviously rip it in.

Thoughts? I've talked to 2 HS regs I respect about the hand, 1 didn't like it and 1 did. I've been thinking about the hand a lot and I still think I like my line, just thought I'd post it up here for discussion.

Forgot to mention he covers

The most standard play is to check back turn, and then call pretty much any blank depending on sizing. 99 is a fairly good bluff catcher too.
Betting on the turn will lead to getting called by Kx,TT++,6x (unlikely), and maybe 77,88 with a spade. so fairly -EV if u ask me.

Did u actually check back the turn (you didn't say). If so the river shove is pretty spewy and you will never get called by worse, but might be looked up by marginally better hand like Kx

Yes, I bet the turn. My plan was to get better hands to fold otr, as I clearly explained in the OP

I suck at posting. He c/c turn, he checks river and I rip

You are basicly repping a spazz and you have a perfectly fine hand for a showdown, and yeah I forgot unreg pre. Might have liked it from the BB where you can rep boats but this is not a good move as tony G would have said.

feels like we're just making assumptions about his range w/o really having a read...

i don't think he has to be capped ott, your range doesn't contain much 6x or Kx so he can check turn strong thinking he won't often get three streets of value from worse and that you might start bluffing.

somewhat optimistic otr where you basically only rep nut flushes and he can have blockers to them, KxQs, KxJs, KxTs, etc., also if he thinks you can have 98s 87s pre he'd be quite tempted to bluffcatch w/a blocker.

good post and the assumptions holding up are vitally important here. Essentially, there are 2 - that he doesn't check his flushes/boats ott, and flowing from this, that he c/c turn and c/f rivers unimproved with (kx,tt-qq). In a vacuum and vs me in game, I assumed he'd just bet his blades ott instead of c/cing them. Not going to post results yet but once I ripped river he went into the tank for a long time...

This was one of the slowest softest tournaments ever and you decide to go crazy and try to bluff a button clicker off a good size pair.

With your image he's going to think you're clicking buttons too and convince himself to call pretty much his whole turn range.

Pick a better spot.

Where did I say anything about my image?

i like the turn bet to deny him whatever stray equity he may possess but just check back the river

Just check

I think the biggest factor in this hand are perceived preflop ranges.

At 30 BB eff stacks his EP open is usually going to be on the tighter side and your MP call contains a lot of middle pairs 55-JJ along with some AJ/AQ/AK hands and maybe random suited connector type hands (not sure how you play)

I presume he is going to lead this flop with his entire range. Now, ott, if he checks I am usually going to take complete air (w/ out a high flush card) out of his range as his only chance of winning the pot is to bet right there and have you fold a middle pair or AJ/AQ type hand and possibly barrel the river as well hoping you stick around with a flush draw or middle pair.

I think his turn check doesn't actually include a lot of hands that you beat and/or will make fold with a turn and river bet. It's not b/c his range is so nutted but rather that you don't have a lot of flushes and 66/55/KK (almost no KK) in your range here. I think he will call ott here with 10s+ and QK/AK usually as well as his flushes. When the river bricks out and he checks I do think his range is usually going to be more capped here and not have a lot of boats / nut flushes BUT he can still think a ton of his range is the effective nuts against his perceived preflop range of you and make a 'hero' call. He has to be thinking, if you have a monster here do you really expect a call from his range almost ever when you shove?