Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Interesting hand in WPT Regional ME (00 entry, 150k gtd) Interesting hand in WPT Regional ME (00 entry, 150k gtd)

10-27-2013 , 11:22 AM
Lolll live poker. Great call vs described villian. Unlucky.
10-27-2013 , 12:44 PM
snap call, ul
10-28-2013 , 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish Taco
Yea I thought so. Played with him before and wasn't impressed.

I'm wondering if we really need to be flipping a coin at this point when we still have a big stack? Doesn't the whole thing of not taking flips if we feel we have an advantage come into play? If you fold we come back on day two at 2k with 65bb's and well above average so is it really worth risking our tournament life on a flip?
No, you take the small edge with the dead money. This is not the WSOP ME, you aren't going to find a lot of spots where you will have a huge edge. An opportunity presents itself where you have an edge, you take it!

A lot of amateur poker players so grossly overestimate their edge these days. You have got to first accept the fact although you may have an edge (not everyone will), it is much smaller than you think. Overall the field's have gotten much tougher and players are mostly competent, even if their are a few huge fish in the field.
10-28-2013 , 01:38 AM
I wonder if this would even be debated if it wasn't "end of day 1." End of day 1 is completely artificial, though it's useful to remember that lots of bad players tighten up at the end of Day 1 hoping to make it to Day 2, so you can use that kind of "day 1" bubble to punish them.

I also don't think it's so unlikely that the villain has AA or KK--why would he want to flat that hand against 3 opponents instead of hoping to get it all in vs. you if he has a hand like that? But I still think you have to call there, because TT, JJ, AK, and AQ are all in his range (as well as the other QQ), and even if they're all equally likely, you're still 55:45 ahead.

Even if the field is TERRIBLE, I don't think your edge is so great that you can afford to pass up that edge, since you'll have to take flips sometime. Better to take them with your triple average stack, if you win, then to hope for a better edge with a smaller stack.

I do think many live players have the mistaken idea that their "tournament life" is everything instead of seeing that over time, you just have to take a lot of spots that a lot of the time you are going to lose. That's why a lot of live regs will say things like, "Don't take a flip there." They see the times they're out of the tournament, but they don't see the bigger picture of all the value they lose by not shoving in a spot like this. Even if he showed you AK, I agree that you have to call.
10-28-2013 , 03:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots
No, you take the small edge with the dead money. This is not the WSOP ME, you aren't going to find a lot of spots where you will have a huge edge. An opportunity presents itself where you have an edge, you take it!

A lot of amateur poker players so grossly overestimate their edge these days. You have got to first accept the fact although you may have an edge (not everyone will), it is much smaller than you think. Overall the field's have gotten much tougher and players are mostly competent, even if their are a few huge fish in the field.
I agree with a lot of this. I definitely don't consider myself a professional, at least not yet anyway. I've got a few 5-figure scores, but nothing that would show up in a db and I'm still waiting on my first 6-figure score (had a couple shots last year but ran terribly in the end of 2 events) before I consider taking a real shot at this and giving up my 9-5.

A very nutshell version of my life story = I grew up around a bunch of the South Florida, Magic: The Gathering-turned-poker players you guys know. Only difference is, while they were pouncing on the post-MoneyMaker and "real poker in FL" booms, I was away in school earning IT certifications .

I've been taking poker more seriously since I earned just as much last year playing poker as just a "weekend warrior" as I did working my 9-5. I only share this all to agree that while I may have an edge vs. the field intellectually, I just haven't had the experience late in spots that some of the more "seasoned" regulars have had, so I'm sure I make some ICM mistakes still and feel like I'm flipping coins in any event with a 1k entry or higher.

TL;DR: At this stage of the game, I'm fine taking small edges with a huge potential payoff.
11-15-2013 , 07:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TClermont
Here's a hand that's been bugging me since it happened....

Last level of Day 1, 20 minutes until end of the day and I'm still new to the table (i've seen less than 1 orbit).

Blinds 800/1600/300, I've got 130k. Average for Day 2 was ~85k, so I'm almost assured to cash if I fold this hand.

I raise to 4500 UTG with 2 red queens, get 2 callers before the button shoves 150k.

Button = Aggressive Asian. I'd seen him raise 3 of the 5 hands I'd seen at the table. He's the only person in the room that has me covered.

I snapcall thinking there's no way he'd ever play AA/KK like that. He has AsQs. Board runs out 89A all hearts (so FD), turn Td (straight draw), river brick and I'm out. He cruises to a HU chop for 68k the next day.

The majority of regulars whose opinions I respect have said they'd fold there, not willing to risk their edge vs. the field over what's very likely a coin flip (assuming most people play AK the way villain did).

My thinking was that with almost triple the average going into Day 2, I'd be able to cruise like he did with a ridiculous stack vs. the field, and that was worth not cashing 40% of the time or so as a result.

Thoughts?
against this player, we have to call, wp.
11-16-2013 , 03:25 PM
I love how those thinking this is a fold pre also think they have an "edge" on the field
You have like 60% vs 99+ aq+ and if you take out aa kk you have like 70% giving up that kind of equity in a massive pot like that is not a good thing to do

Last edited by ebet33; 11-16-2013 at 03:33 PM.
11-17-2013 , 08:46 PM
Raise smaller, and yes call.

Part of the edge you have over the field is realizing a +ev spot and taking it. You're not against AA/KK almost ever, his range is probably TT/JJ/AQ, small possibility of 99 and QQ, and all combos of AK. Lots of dead money makes for a decent squeeze spot for an aggressive player - he could even just have a blocker some tiny % of the time (even though it's a huge shove).

It is not a flip, you're dominating. Good call, bad result
11-19-2013 , 03:15 PM
Nah he's spewy... Win the hand.. Cruise to first placebo chop
11-19-2013 , 04:22 PM
Against the V you describes it's a fold. Sucks but folding is prolly correct
11-19-2013 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TClermont
Yep.... Tampa Hard Rock. The series in September, and it was the end of the Saturday Day 1 .
Were you the young guy at my table in the back right corner of the room who flopped a set and got rundown by the big guy's runner runner straight (shoving air into me)?
11-22-2013 , 11:06 PM
You got it in w QQ vs AQ. How can ppl/you think it was played bad?

      
m