This is in the 162$ on stars, no real reads. I know this guy to be a good regular, and he probaby think (realize?) Im just a random fish.

PokerStars Game #39909251496: Tournament #285011253, $150+$12 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2010/02/17 22:25:41 CET [2010/02/17 16:25:41 ET]
Table '285011253 2' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: sprstoner (2560 in chips)
Seat 2: elmasborrach (4300 in chips)
Seat 3: agriffrod (4445 in chips)
Seat 4: ANG RUS (3590 in chips)
Seat 5: leah28288 (3000 in chips)
Seat 6: seijistar (2235 in chips)
Seat 7: gyr1 (2215 in chips)
Seat 8: SNG Grind_15 (2365 in chips)
Seat 9: TheCronic420 (2990 in chips)
sprstoner: posts small blind 25
elmasborrach: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SNG Grind_15 [Kh Ad]
agriffrod: raises 100 to 150
ANG RUS: folds
leah28288: folds
seijistar: folds
gyr1: calls 150
SNG Grind_15: calls 150
TheCronic420: folds
sprstoner: folds
elmasborrach: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8s 5c]
agriffrod: bets 300
gyr1: folds
SNG Grind_15: calls 300
*** TURN *** [Ah 8s 5c] [Qh]
agriffrod: bets 550
SNG Grind_15: calls 550
*** RIVER *** [Ah 8s 5c Qh] [4c]
agriffrod: bets 1400
SNG Grind_15 said, "why am i wasting my timebank? AQ got there, nh"
SNG Grind_15: folds
Uncalled bet (1400) returned to agriffrod
agriffrod collected 2225 from pot
agriffrod: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2225 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 8s 5c Qh 4c]
Seat 1: sprstoner (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: elmasborrach (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: agriffrod collected (2225)
Seat 4: ANG RUS folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: leah28288 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: seijistar folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: gyr1 folded on the Flop
Seat 8: SNG Grind_15 folded on the River
Seat 9: TheCronic420 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)



While the hand played out I kinda didnt like the turn card, but didnt even consider folding. My MTT game is pretty rusy so Im unsure in this spot, what you guys do on the turn? Does anyone call river?

i prob fold pre, tough to beat anything by this river if he has a spade

I posted wrong HH at first, so i totally deserved that

well played imo, I play every street the same.

Yeah nh

I just dont see the reason to call turn, do we expect him to bet AJ here?

I'd definitely call the turn as I think he's still betting AJ almost always and sometimes betting AT.

The river's tricky, but after doing some math, I think it's an extremely close fold. We need 28% equity for the call to be correct. Let's say he's randomly bluffing 10% and betting worse value hands 5%. That means that we need 26% of his overall range to be AK for calling to be correct since we only get half the pot when we call.

Given combinations, AK should be equally as likely as AQ, but he might check AK occasionally and the bet-sizing also leans toward a large hand but doesn't necessarily have to be. So let's discount AK slightly and say that he has AK 2/3 as often as AQ. Let's also assume he always plays AA, 88, A5s, and A8s this way. (The fact that he doesn't will balance the times he lucks into something like QQ.) So we now have 6 combos of AK, 9 combos of AQ, 1 AA, 3 88s, 2 A8s, and 2 A5s. That means that 6/23 combos are AK. 85/23*6 = 22 so 22% of his overall range is AK, and we're 2% short of the total equity we need on the call. If he'd bet 1/2 pot, it would definitely be a call, but for 2/3 pot it looks like we have to fold.

why are we not 3-betting pre with a limper in front from the co?

+1

Maybe I am a lunatic, but I would 3-bet pre and ship it on the flop.

this looks right to me

Agriffrod always has it

id 3 bet/get it in pre
as played on the flop i prefer flat
as played, id just call on river
dont really see how u can fold at this pt..

ba