Yeah.

In this situation we don't know whether villain is an experienced player (despite not recognising sn) or a random donk (despite playing in a $500). A small sample of play suggests that he is tight, at least pre-flop. In that situation I would guestimate that he shows up with AA often, QQ sometimes, JJ occasionally, KK,TT very occasionally and air(eg AK)/disguised monster rarely.

I would discount the last 2 as they are rare and counterbalance each other. (You don't show suits but if there was a missed flush draw possibility I would increase the chance of air). I would assume a range of AA,QQ would be a good approximation for his range as the number of QQ,JJ,TT together are about equal to the number of times he shows AA and so using all the QQ combos would give a fair approximation (as the effect of all these hands are the same here).

I don't believe that AA is massively more likely than the others because his concerns about shoving the river should extend to that hand to some extent. He can't put you only on an overpair (which would justify shoving AA but not the others). With this board AA is almost as much of a bluff as JJ. Also, if he has QQ he may reason that you can't have KK, AA because you didn't rr preflop. Your passive play during the rest of the hand may have increased his confidence further.

i respect (and appreciate) your detailed arguments above and agree with you all the way to the river but imho this is a good +EV call.

I think you're way overthinking this. This might be a fold once in a while in a live tourney, but online...no way. Also 16 hands doesn't mean much, sometimes I'm 60/50 after 16 hands, and sometimes im 0/0 too...

Anybody non live one I have ever played with who would bet more than the pot on the river with two jacks in this spot would be doing it as a bluff.

Just because people will clown it up a lot, doesn't mean they will clown it up a lot in all spots. This hand is a pretty good example where clowns rarely clown it up, how often do you see guys bluffing in spots like this? It's not like you raised the btn, very few people three bet UTG opens light from EP and even fewer 3/4 pot, 3/4 pot, overbet shove as a bluff. Random clown factor is a much more useful thing when making thin vbets or calling down when people take weird lines etc, but just assuming well he is an unknown so he is probably a clown and I can auto stack off any hand that crosses an arbitrary threshold is a pretty lazy way to analyze the hand.

When you give randoms a chance to bet 3 times in position, they will no matter their hand a lot (thinking JJ is for value here, for instance), it's not like we raised on any of the streets to fold out air.

Really? You seem experienced enough to know better than to label someone as a nit just because they haven't played a hand in 17 hands. I'm willing to bet even a player who plays a VPIP of 20+ occasionally goes on a run that leads them not to open a pot for 17 hands.

In this spot villain is very likely to be behind your KK. Why would you fold here? It seems pretty weak to me

I would agree with you if he had bet 3500 on the river but he overbet shoved.

This is simple math there is a 3% chance his true vpip is 20%. There is about a 16% his true vpip is 10%. I can say with 80% certainty his true vpip is under 10%. This is pretty significant.

u dont play much on the internet do u dave?

I'd bet 2K and fold to a push on river.

+1, especially if you have doubts abtout having the best hand.

does the fact that his range is QQ+ and like a 3 barrel 2-5% of the time and JJ 5-7% of the time make it a call?

Still, this doesn't mean that he has AA or a set here more than 50% of the time. You played this very passively and thus you are going to get villain showing up value betting worse a significant percentage of the time. Not too unlikely that he shows up shoving air. Why is his river shove over pot?

IMO, he didn't think the hand through very well and his bet sizing was bad on the turn and thus he had to overshove the river. In my experience, this makes it more likely the shove is a bluff b/c the villain would be thinking the hand through multiple streets in order to have <pot size shove stack if he truly held the goods.

I fold and don't feel too bad about it to be honest.

Wow, this really is a hero fold. I would have tanked and looked him up first, though, but I like it.

What else is he putting 200bb in with if not AA, unless he's a spewtard, and you can usually tell if someone is a spewtard in 16 hands.

Good chance I call, but he definitely does not have JJ.

The math here isn't that easy. You are ignoring

- that VPIPs aren't independent, they vary by position

- prior knowledge. I don't think anyone has a true VPIP of < 6%. According to your math, there would be a more than 60% chance that his true VPIP is < 6% but in reality this chance is pretty much 0%

- your knowledge of how the hands went down

You really need a bigger sample size to draw reliable conclusions about his true VPIP.

4bet get it in!

Call, you can't play KK like this and then think about folding this turn or river. I don't think QQ or JJ are particularly thin value versus your line; not betting them would be a sizable mistake versus most. So Villain gets to choose between betting 3,000 which looks kind of goofy and valuetowny or over bet shoving by just a little, which looks more bluffy and less desperate for a call. If he chose to fire a turn barrel with AK, this river card is pretty perfect to fire a third one and he has a big enough bet to wrangle a fold a good amount of the time.

I would call. Eagles it seems like ur putting alot of stock in your INSANELY HUGE sample size of 16 hands in which he might have been taking a dump or running to the store for a cherry shasta and some funions. I think your leveling yourself. U has the K and the K preflop, U got 3 bet and got trixy and flatted, and now the board runs out good for ur hand and ur looking for an excuse to fold. I'm not saying he won't have AA/ doesn't have AA, just that if your playing KK this way your prob leaving a ton of value on the table in other hands.

Also, saying that ur 80% sure his vpip is under 10 because he folded 16 hands in a row is a pretty bad assumption.

i call...nobody has yet mentioned that AK is possibly in his range.

btw, people who haven't made a move in a while are more likely to make a move.

agree that villian will have AA way more often than QQ, and never JJ unless hes russian. But the spaz factor is enough for me to call combined with the small probability of QQ. I suppose it being early in the million, and folding leaves u a nice srack still might swing it to a fold, but I still prob shrug call

This is true if he is capable of making moves. But there are a large % of players who are not capable of bluffing here.