Blinds 2500/5000 with 400 ante

Hero (168,000 chips) Qd8d
Villian (82,500 chips)

Villian is an mediocre player who is pretty aggressive, but yet has shown a few leaks and made a couple of bad plays. We are about 15 hands deep into heads up and Villain had 2-1 CL until he shoved 13 BB with J9off and doubled Hero up with AA. After the AA hand, villian has shoved quite a bit and seems like he might be a little tilted. Villian has shoved more then checked in the previous hands where Hero limped the button. Hero has the button and it is his turn to act. What would you do and why? (Good explanations on ranges etc. please)

i would take the GTO shove range for that stacksize, tighten it up a bit, and shove the bottom 75% of that range and limp/minraise the top 25%

I fold

Surely not?

22+ A2+ K2s+ K6o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s

super easy shove

shove this all day

yea i thought this was "not even close shove" spot

who cares about the ranges it's a ridiculously easy shove.

arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr in, you are 40-60 or better 90% of the time and dominated such a small percent, plus u got a chip lead and as u state you feel they are tilted, thus their calling range is wider, and they might call with like J-9 or w/e.

GTO play for this stack size already includes limp/reraising many monster hands.

FWIW i don't think this is an easy shove at all. While it might be slightly plus EV i don't think its optimal at all in this situation. I think limping is much much better here and playing smaller pots in position vs a weaker opponent. If your opponent is crazy aggressive you have enough room to get the chips in for the win as decent favorite. If you opponent is passive you can take down the pot most of the time on the flop in position. Too many times i think people are just shoving lighter and lighter without taking into account the dynamic of the player and their skill level, while also not realizing their actually is some play left with almost 17BB's effective. Once you get down to around 12BB then is becomes a much easier shove.

Man you sure showed hiim.

oh u have Q8dd lol I didnt even see that I didnt see u post ur hand at first so me saying I fold was a joke

yea i limp

So what are you saying here? Are you snapping him off with Q8s when he shoves over a limp or that he's going to check enough that you can outplay him in position with 16bb effective stacks. Or both. And that that has a greater $EV than raise-calling or shoving?

I mean I can see it, heads up, after some play with the guy, but against a kinda bad, kinda aggressive, possibly tilting random as outlined in OP, limp-completing Q8s just doesn't seem very good.

I am folding to his shove here after i limp. I am saying that i think i can outplay him in position more profitably with 16BB effective by limping rather then shoving preflop. Like i stated earlier i think shoving is slightly +EV but limping is greater $EV.

What are you trying to say here?

OK, so give us the parameters and let someone do the math. He's shoving what range over your limp, he's presumably 3xing etc. at least sometimes and he's checking with what range?

I'll guess that whatever you plug in, it's not going to have a greater expectation that raising/shoving and furthermore that, this short, cEV=$EV.

Agree that limping might be more optimal vs a weak tight player, but that isnt the case, and he's shown that he'll shove ur limp often enough to where ur giving up too much equity that shoving gives u. You wanna grind him down a lil to where u become a 3-1 cl, then 4-1 cl, now if u get it in and lose ur still even in chips or still ahead, whereas if u keep waiting to trap him, ur gonna be bleeding off chips and hes gonna be closing the lead and now if u get it in and lose ur prolly out. With these stacks if u win like 2 preflop pots in a row u go from a 2-1 cl to 3-1 which is huge. Ur hu, it's very likely u wont wake up w/ a huge hand when he shoves and if ur just wasting hands as big as q8s ur giving up too many chips. Ur not just gonna get it in sooo much better that warrants limp/folding here. Also i think even considering limping w/ 13bbs in this spot is beyond rediculous and is def very bad.

/thread

Unless your opponent is super weak tight, it's just not possible to have a huge edge HU this shallow. Suck it up and shove.

i like limping here much better than minraising... he's much more likely to jam over a minraise than to jam over a limp cuz when you limp he's like oh lol cheap flop, and then you flop top pair to his mid pair and win the tournament.

i like limping better than shoving because this opponent is crazy and no reason to get your money in here if he wakes up with something. lol "wait for a better spot."

yeah limp. limping is fun. but you won't hear that around these parts

super standard +ev shove, go play some hu sngs..

when people start shoving 17bb against me I take it as an open invitation to call super light. Any ace will do, two face cards, all pairs etc. Seems like your trying to get yourself into a 60/40 where your the 40.

+ = funny

shoving is plus ev, limping is prob higher expectation, there is room to play and ytake cheap stabs with no showdown. i lik what d peters said about how limping is better vrs weak tight players and its something to keep in mind