hand from WPT final table - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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hand from WPT final table

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03-10-2010 , 09:33 AM

Bikini Wax

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,212

I start with ~4.8m blinds 50k/100k
UTG (Tommy Vedes) ~3.8m
MP (Craig Crivelo) ~ 2m

UTG limps, I iso to 300k with AQo, MP INSTA flats, UTG calls

flop AJ2r - check check (I'll give my thoughts on this after) - insta 700k (~40% of his stack)

I hadn't played much with craig up until then so not many reads other then the fact that he's folded every hand at the final table so far and he's a nit (~30 hands in)

thoughts?

03-10-2010 , 09:46 AM

GALB83

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 96

You are 3way?

I really can't see a fold here, I would raise all in he has 20bb in total when the hand starts.

03-10-2010 , 09:55 AM

Bikini Wax

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,212

6 handed

03-10-2010 , 09:56 AM

poker edge

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,646

Super easy shove if the other guy folds. I dont see what he can have here that beats you apart from maybe AJ. He only has 20BB starting the hand just bet all your chips. If you lose you still have 2.8Mil.

03-10-2010 , 10:29 AM

simon1989

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 134

During watching this episode i said "what the hell he's doing".

Shove all-time...You are beat by two hands and i don't expekt him to bet so insta on flop w/AJ...If he had AK it's a cooler but rest of the time you are ahead...

03-10-2010 , 11:57 AM

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 15,623

This really really sucks. I have no idea what to do. I kind of want to fold as a result.

03-10-2010 , 12:12 PM

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

First let's try to narrow down his flatting range pre w/an UTG Limp and an EP 3x... As for his Aces I would say AJs+ and his PP's 99+, easy reship w/99-JJ/QQ so maybe he is trying to max value w/AA or KK on you here by flatting behind pre... figuring if he reships here he is probably minimally increasing his cEV w/folds whereas if he can flat and drag some eqty out of you (on the flop or post) it will be a lot better this late in the tournament.

03-10-2010 , 12:23 PM

poker edge

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

This really really sucks. I have no idea what to do. I kind of want to fold as a result.

Really? i think folding here is way to weak/tight man. What do we even lose to? [apart from AJ]

03-10-2010 , 12:25 PM

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by poker edge

Really? i think folding here is way to weak/tight man. What do we even lose to? [apart from AJ]

AA/JJ AJ? You really should be narrowing his range quite a bit when he is flatting behind a limp then 3x pre w/only 20 BBs behind. What does he flat(then open on the turn) with that is worse is a better question...

03-10-2010 , 12:29 PM

#10

poker edge

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrussel2k1

You think a good player is going to flat AA or JJ here with 20BB?

03-10-2010 , 12:39 PM

#11

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 15,623

Really tight live players may even flat AK here, especially if they have little TV experience.

03-10-2010 , 12:42 PM

#12

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by poker edge

You think a good player is going to flat AA or JJ here with 20BB?

What are you worried about flatting AA here? I said he is easily shipping JJ pre

Last edited by mrussel2k1; 03-10-2010 at 12:47 PM. Reason: so when I said he can have AA/JJ I just mean AA that beats us and can have AA/KK in his flatting range

03-10-2010 , 02:41 PM

#13

Bikini Wax

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,212

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

Really tight live players may even flat AK here, especially if they have little TV experience.

more scared of JJ and AJ from a live player though

03-10-2010 , 02:46 PM

#14

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bikini Wax

more scared of JJ and AJ from a live player though

I guess JJ can flat and fold to Q/K/A higher boards. More important here, what do you think he is putting you on that he believes he can barrel the turn?

03-10-2010 , 02:46 PM

#15

StephenAdms

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 350

Shove

03-10-2010 , 02:50 PM

#16

RocktheCasbah

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 441

OP, why did you decide to check the flop?

03-10-2010 , 02:57 PM

#17

Jiggymike

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 13,420

You are skewing your responses with your INSTA calls and bets. I guess you are trying to make it obvious that you should have folded because his range for INSTA flatting and betting is > AQ here? If that is your read live, I could see it, but from a purely poker standpoint it is tough to fold here. Who is this guy, a pro or just a rando?

03-10-2010 , 03:08 PM

#18

FyteOn

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 728

I just watched this again last night as it was randomly on a FSN channel. It looked to me like you had (or thought you had) a massive read/tell on him which is the only way I could see you laying down the hand. I thought at the time that there were only two hands he could show up with that would beat you (AJ, JJ) and that it was a shove. But the way you looked at him it really seemed like you thought you had a tell that he flopped huge.

03-10-2010 , 03:08 PM

#19

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jiggymike

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing...

03-10-2010 , 03:10 PM

#20

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,379

OP - why is a raise to only 3BB an iso? Shouldn't it have been more like 400-450K to iso with the B+A?

Oh and V has 2-2 ldo. Yeah, I know U can't put someone on a single hand, but a 30+ hand folder-nit could flat here for 300K with a small pp and his flop lead stinks of "please push me off this hand"

03-10-2010 , 03:11 PM

#21

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocktheCasbah

OP, why did you decide to check the flop?

Yeah, I feel like Villian really only had one viable option here if he missed the flop or has an underpair here. If you want him to ship it over you and or have a made hand here I believe you lead out thin to induce a shove. Your check looks like you have a hand you are not eager to get it in with and leaves the door open for him to get it in (or in this case show he is comitted to doing so)

03-10-2010 , 03:14 PM

#22

alekhine11

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,637

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrussel2k1

I guess JJ can flat and fold to Q/K/A higher boards. More important here, what do you think he is putting you on that he believes he can barrel the turn?

it is a good question.

03-10-2010 , 03:15 PM

#23

mrussel2k1

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beachman42

Ehhhhhhh don't really agree with the second part. He folded a bunch of hands b/c he is sitting on a 20 BB stack and is likely witing for a hand he can get it in with most of the time. Doubt he is throwing 3 BBs (15% of his stack) in w/a small PP here...

03-10-2010 , 03:17 PM

#24

Bikini Wax

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,212

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jiggymike

how am I skewing responses, it's obviously pertinent to the hand in question?

03-10-2010 , 03:21 PM

#25

Bikini Wax

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,212

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beachman42

I didn't really see the need to make it bigger, wanted to keep some room to play postflop in position because I never expected to get flatted behind me and wanted to show some fold equity vs short BB.

And ya fwiw I was pretty sure I was beat hence the fold

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