Just shove? Or give him a walk? Is limping a legitimate option? I've had a hand last 2 times it came to us blind on blind so I suspect he'll call me lightly. On the other hand, I hate to just give him 1/3 more chips... We're 5 away from the bubble btw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (t7935)
Button (t23085)
Hero (t22345)
BB (t3938)
UTG (t4999)
UTG+1 (t7120)
MP1 (t14207)
MP2 (t11375)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 9.
6 folds, Hero??

Your hand isn't even that awful, it's suited, easy shove. If you actually had a bottom 10% hand then folding is best if you really think he's going to make a correct call with like Q4o, but most people suck at calling ranges here so just shove 100% vs. almost everyone.

yeah 5 from the money and with you having a lot of chips shove is very good

My gut said shove, but my head wants to know why.

OP stated that he *expects* villian to call lightly, so what is the justification? HoH once stated that shoving/calling a short shove is acceptable when we cover by 10:1 which isn't the case here. I never really bought into that reasoning (mostly relates to being ITM as I recall).

Asssuming 600/300/50 & 8 handed, There is 1,300 in the pot. If we shove, villian calls for ~3,300. Do you really want to put 3,600 at risk here? Without my poker notes, I'm guessing 9-2 sooted is a bottom 25% hand. Versus any 2 cards, we are prolly ~66% dog here vs. 2 unpaired cards where at least one is prolly > 9 or villian folds.

I think the only calc is the % likely villian folds. Based upon OPs post, I'd say 50% is BEST case, so:

SHOVE = (.5)(1,300) + (.5)((.67)(-3,600) + (.33)(3,600)) = 650 + (1188 - 2376) or -538.

Since whether villian calls or folds is the biggest variable, villian needs to fold >48% of the time for this to hold (given my simple win/lose outcome).

I believe this is a fold IF we expect a call.

Beachman your math is off, this is a shove, and I'll never fold here.
(.525)(1300) - (.475) [(8478) (.348) - 3938]

(% Fold/100) (Pot PF) - (% Call/100) [(Total pot when called)(% Win When Called/100 - (Current Stack)]

682.5 - 469.1 = +223.4

Here is the stove:

3,869,807,040 games 0.043 secs 89,995,512,558 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.637% 34.00% 00.63% 1315843972 24544606.00 { 92s }
Hand 1: 65.363% 64.73% 00.63% 2504873856 24544606.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A4o+, K8o+, K6o-K2o, Q4o+, J9o+ }

Shoveaments all day long

Don't think so. V has ~3,900 BEFORE posting a + BB. This changes everything as I included his BB + a in the 1,300. You have double counted.

Beachman

If you aren't shoving ATC here you suck at poker.
This isn't up for debate. /thread. etc.

very marginal push if you do the math. None the less a push though.

ATCers:
is this really a 23o shove? if so would it be farther from the bubble? would it be a shove itm but far from the final table?

thx

I generally have learned from your posts & analysis. In this case you are pretty clearly wrong & sound like a dumbass as well. Please note that I didn't call you a dumbass, only commented that your post lacks its usual logic & insight.

If this is the best you can do here, please refrain next time.

Stacks are effectively 3938, 1300 is what you win every time he folds, 8478 is what the pot will be if he calls, where is the mistake?

gogoogogoogoogogogogog (allin)

w/ 23o too

I dunno about the other questions but it's ne2 v ne1 here.

Bubble makes this a shove with ATC vs. anyone. If it wasn't the bubble AND if the big blind is someone who you know is going to call correctly, then no, it's not profitable to shove ATC. I'd have to respect the BB a lot to fold anything here. For example if the BB was djk, I would fold 23o to him. "I shoved last two times so I think he's calling kind of light" isn't even close to enough of a reason to fold here.

I don't need to throw in logic/waste my time with equations, I've done them infinite times and know that vs 99.99% of calling ranges here atc is a +EV shove.

Take my word for it because I'm much smarter and better at mtts than you, or you can be an ignorant **** and say my posts lack insight.

It doesn't matter anyway because you are a moron, and most morons are incapable of learning, so I think you'd be best off quitting poker and/or swallowing battery acid and lighting yourself on fire.

This is HSMTT so a trivial push/fold spot in which case anyone with a brain knows is a shove with ATC, shouldn't warrant a thread, or a discussion. Its a simple math problem. And I know from the several times i've done the silly little math problem out that a shove here with ATC is profitable.

Can I interest you in some battery acid now?

Edit: I'm glad some other people have basically said just what I said but the moron randomly chose to call me out.

I seriously doubt your sample size is either documented or large enough to to be valid in this situation.

I don't doubt that you are better at mtts, hence the reason for my initial feedback. If you we not, I wouldn't bother to read your posts like 80+% of most responses here.

That you are smarter than me is a bold statement.

Another bold prediction as I am certain my IQ is easily >70. Is yours or do you even know the definition of "moron?"

As to your self improvement suggestions, I'll pass.


What % of time does the BB need to fold then? I doubt you know.

BTW - I'll be in Vegas for 10 days in June playing mtts. By all means come & take my monies if you are so inclined.

No thanks, I'll pass. However I welcome you being my SB when I'm in the BB. I just love lagtards on my right.

The push is only slightly cEV- even if villain always calls. There is 8270 in the pot with antes after he calls. You are 42.4% against a random hand. Your expected win is 3608 of 3938 gambled, for a 330 loss. If you fold, you lose the 300 SB.

Since, villain will generally fold a decent percentage of the time, it is cEV+ versus a pro. Against a random near the bubble, push ATC.

This isn't quite right since villain can correctly fold 23o etc.

^^ Don't confuse my nitty response for advocating a fold though. As stealthmunk said, quit tournaments if you're not shoving here.

quit while you are behind beachman42

I was never behind.

Villain will make some correct folds, but he also will probably fold hands where he is ahead, such as T4o. So on balance you do better if villain folds some hands.

Ok well then heres another hint lol:

All you have done this entire thread is dig a deeper and deeper hole.

As opposed to your stellar contributions?