Full Tilt Poker $80,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t80/t160 Blinds - 6 players
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UTG: t5005 M = 20.85
MP: t5175 M = 21.56
Hero (CO): t8592 M = 35.80
BTN: t10475 M = 43.65
SB: t10605 M = 44.19
BB: t10268 M = 42.78

Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is CO with Q T
2 folds, Hero raises to t370, BTN calls t370, 2 folds

Flop: (t980) 8 4 K (2 players)
Hero bets t575, BTN calls t575

Turn: (t2130) A (2 players)
Hero bets t1400, BTN calls t1400

River: (t4930) T (2 players)
Hero bets t6247 all in

Dont have any reads on the villan unfortunately which may make this worse? I fiqure there are as many FD's in my range as the villians? (maybe more as he might raise?) Also would like comments on the river bet sizing as i overbet shove.

I don't like it, a bet of 3500 on the river would accomplish the same if not more, and he could easily have FD's in his range.

while yes there are flush draws in his range, most of them fold to a turn bet... Also there are a TON of 1 pair hands i feel.

more opinons?

I like it v someone good. As the only flush draw they should really have is the JQhh and they cant have that.

Thing is readless youre guessing because they could easily be bad enough to play a flush draw like this (which obv they dont fold on the river), or something stupid like a set or AK.

Id at least check location before shoving river. Germany/Brazil/France, id just give up because they are 90% massive stations and having called flop and turn I wouldnt trust them to be able to fold whatever it is they like to a river shove. Also these three nations often show up with something like AKhh/J9hh here.

Not a fan of it here. I dont think you need to shove river to get the same outcome your looking for. I honestly believe shoving looks a bit more fishy because if you rivered flush people tend to make more of a value bet rather than shoving.

aren't there some Ahxh combos that don't fold turn?

it's just hard for you to rep much on this board which seems backwards bc "zomg so much stuff got there"

what are you trying to make fold? does 2 pair fold? I guess you're trying to fold out like KQ exactly? I agree his range is thin (rarely has sets here) but besides flushes his hand seems to be like KQ/KJ/K10ss and some Ax's (is he capable of floating?)

bc of the sizing your bet has to work a fairly high % of the time and so i don't think its profitable (by a slightly small margin)

ridic bad

They definitely wont fold the turn, but id expect them to raise either flop or turn the majority of the time rather than go call/call. I suppose if they did flat the flop then theyre more likeely to flat turn.

44, 88, KK, AA, AK, A4s, A8s, AT, QJ, flushes. I really don't see how it's hard for OP to rep much. The problem I have is that it's such an obvious bluff spot, but just because it's an obv spot doesn't mean he's going to snapcall KJ. It's a marginal play, probably slightly good IMO.

I also disagree with fivetypes about it being best against a good player, the better regs in the 100r are more likely than the worse regs to hero call with KJ here.

I think his range is mostly flush draws, weighted toward AhXh, after he calls the turn.

Hmm, not sure how you can say that. Because without history/good reads (none of which are present in this hand), reg or not, its a horrible call with KJ imo.

Beacause like you say OP can rep so many value hands.

So in the context of the hand im expecting a better player to give credit to a strong line and fold more hands than a poor player.

Many many more times when ive tried to triple barrel bluff a random, representing a massively strong range, have I been hero called by players with bad records, than good winning players after ive sharkscoped them when the hands finished.

What are people doing with AJ on the turn/river in hero's shoes having gotten there this way?

standard


how on earth can he not rep anything geoff he can pretty much rep everything

Wasn't talking about randoms, was talking about really good regs vs. nitty ones who are more marginal winners. I think a really good player is more likely to realize that KJ=KT vs. this overbet, and usually fold both of them, but sometimes call both if their spidey sense is tingling, but most people are far more likely to call here with KT than KJ.

What other choice do we have??