FTOPS $320: Turn spot vs. Lowstakes Reg - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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FTOPS $320: Turn spot vs. Lowstakes Reg

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02-13-2011 , 07:33 PM

Vekked

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,294

Villain has like 2k games, ABI of $15. What do you make of his line/sizing? I feel like it can be interpretted a couple ways... Is it an easy fold?? A sigh/cram?

Full Tilt Poker FTOPS Event #24 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

UTG+1: t6270 78.38 BBs
UTG+2: t5840 73 BBs
MP1: t6086 76.08 BBs
MP2: t480 6 BBs
Hero (CO): t3495 43.69 BBs
BTN: t4800 60 BBs
SB: t4945 61.81 BBs
BB: t8480 106 BBs
UTG: t5845 73.06 BBs

Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is CO with T

2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t200, 2 folds, Hero calls t200, 3 folds

Flop: (t520) 4

(2 players)
UTG+2 bets t234, Hero calls t234

Turn: (t988) J

(2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t525, UTG+2 raises to t2575, Hero ...?

02-13-2011 , 07:46 PM

Sommerset

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 3,863

sorta looks like an overpair that found a safe turn card to get stacks in... maybe JJ... i dont think ur ahead very often.

02-13-2011 , 10:47 PM

NeverScaredB

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Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,314

I'd grumble-fold turn and I'm not sure betting is best.

02-13-2011 , 10:54 PM

rumnchess

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,485

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverScaredB

I'd grumble-fold turn and I'm not sure betting is best.

Why?

Random low stakes guy can peel turn with lots of worse stuff, and is unlikely to play draws / stuff we beat agressively so it's a pretty easy b/f

02-13-2011 , 11:17 PM

NeverScaredB

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Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,314

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumnchess

Why?

Random low stakes guy can peel turn with lots of worse stuff, and is unlikely to play draws / stuff we beat agressively so it's a pretty easy b/f

I agree with the first clause, disagree with the second, and think it'll be easier to get value on river than turn.

02-13-2011 , 11:28 PM

TheChamp11

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Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 6,953

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverScaredB

I agree with the first clause, disagree with the second, and think it'll be easier to get value on river than turn.

yep, this.

02-13-2011 , 11:54 PM

rumnchess

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,485

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverScaredB

I agree with the first clause, disagree with the second, and think it'll be easier to get value on river than turn.

On the turn he'll call with AK / AQ stuff quite often thinking (correctly in this case) he's on a ten out draw. Don't see him calling with these hands on the river unless he improves, and plenty of other rivers will make value betting too thin.

If we think he's super aggro, then maybe we should check, or bet/call (!) the turn, but we don't have this read and I default to thinking lower stakes playesr playing big MTTs will play tight and not run big bluffs

02-14-2011 , 12:15 AM

DDBeast

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Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,698

I think saying check turn is being results oriented. It's so rare that it gets check/raised like this. And you can get value from Ax/55-99 that you likely can't get value from on the river. I bet/fold.

02-14-2011 , 02:21 AM

Vekked

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,294

Word, thanks for the replies. Also note his smallish c-bet on this board texture. Do you think smallish c-bet + check/slam indicates anything as a line?

02-14-2011 , 02:22 AM

#10

Scary_Tiger

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Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 21,487

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDBeast

qft

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