Sry if somebody finds this silly, but we had huge argument about this hand with some solid CG players so I'll post it here.

Villain is a reg who I saw few times already but never made a real note about him.

He was huge SS winner, 1k games/15k profit until he hit 50k+ in another FCOOP event couple days ago. I checked SS after his PF call, which seem pretty odd to me.

2 questions:

1. Turn check - std or stupid?
2. River - snap call or tank fold?

Not sure if it matters much but it KO tourney.

Poker Stars €71+€20+€9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: t9800 196 BBs
UTG+1: t9775 195.50 BBs
UTG+2: t9000 180 BBs
MP1: t9900 198 BBs
MP2: t10895 217.90 BBs
CO: t10530 210.60 BBs
Hero (BTN): t10125 202.50 BBs
SB: t10475 209.50 BBs
BB: t9500 190 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN with A K
UTG raises to t150, UTG+1 calls t150, 4 folds, Hero raises to t600, SB calls t575, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls t450

Flop: (t2000) 2 8 8 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t1025, SB calls t1025, UTG+1 folds

Turn: (t4050) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t4050) A (2 players)
SB bets t8850 all in, Hero

Id check flop probably as his flatting range is massively pair heavy he isnt folding.

As played I guess bet turn bet, jam river. Call river for random spazzness

I think betting flop is OK as long as your plan is to fire multiple barrels. Given that, though, I think you need to bet bigger. Checking the turn is a disaster, and consequently you have to call river against anyone capable of turning like 99 into a bluff.

snap call for glory the river.
I would like to bet the turn because he could have an overpair that wont fold or many times KQ,Kj etc.

just call pre

as played check flop/bet turn/bet river

pre fine
flop fine
bet turn

lol river i dunno

Fold river, he isn't going to have some ******ed hand anywhere near enough of the time to make this river call profitable.

^^this

My thoughs:

I fully agree his range pre is pair heavy, question is whether he goes as low as 22, or as high as KK/AA (I guess its bad but who knows, people get fancy sometimes). We can't exclude AK/AQs and sometimes other random hands like 89s.

On flop I know he's not folding pair often, but I think I still have to bet, he's never c/r smthg like TT since I rep overpair, so by betting flop I get next 2 cards for free if I decide to check turn (and he still might fold 77 on flop, plus there's still another guy who I don't want to give a free card).

Once he calls this flop OOP vs PF3bettor he shouldnt have anything else than pairs/random 89s, heavily weighted towards 99-QQ. I doubt I can get 2 more streets of value (esp. not by betting turn/jamming river), so check flop to get value on river.

Could you guys please elaborate what range u put him on, and why do you think we can bet 2x to get value?

River seems sick to me, the only bluff that makes a little sense is 99/TT hoping to fold JJ/QQ, but why the hell would he shove that when he can bet ~2.3k to get the same result? And I doubt he's ever shoving worse for value, even getting there w/AQ is ridic, so basically I am calling to split w/AK (likely), and lose to 22/8x/KK.

Foucault my turn check is obviously meant to disguise my hand/get value on river, so I agree that turn plan is to snap river in almost any case, but I think that A on the river and 2xPSB shove are factors which should cause at least thinking whether it still smart to stick with the plan.

I might be wrong all the way though so I appreciate further elaboration.

ISM,

I'd say it's very likely that 99 or the like will call a bet on the turn and quite possibly on a blank river though maybe not an A river (though obviously you should bet the river anyway). The bet-check-bet line really does not disguise your hand at all against a halfway competent hand reader, which hand reader will also recognize that the K is a scare card that shrinks your value range considerably. Granted he's somewhat more likely to call a river bet than a turn bet, but you win so much more when he does hero call both that going for the gold is worth occasionally letting him off the hook.