Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Facing open shove on paired board Facing open shove on paired board

10-16-2009 , 07:23 AM
~$300 live tournament with 26 entries. 10k in starting chips and 4 prizes.

12 left so avg is 22k.

6 players, 500/1000 (no ante)

Hero (21k) raises to 2200 UTG with XX and is only called by BB (16k)

Flop comes 6 6 2

Without much hesitation she shoves (about 3x pot), what do you do with?

a. K Q
b: 7 7
c: A K
d: Q J
e: 3 3

Hero has a been pretty active, mostly because of good cards. Villian seems to play a pretty solid game overall.
10-16-2009 , 07:47 AM
Call a and d, fold all others imo, she has a pair between 3-3 - 10-10 most of the time
10-16-2009 , 08:36 AM
I Call a,b fold others
10-16-2009 , 08:48 AM
I call a, c , d. Maybe b.
10-16-2009 , 08:55 AM
her line would be terrible with any hand except for Adxd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd (in this case it would just be bad). let's add anyway to her range 6 combinations of PPs above 6 because we can not really exclude a PP with certainty. So her range might be something like 88, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd. Against this range you have the following equities:

a) 39%
b) 32%
c) 37%
d) 41%
e) 31%

You need approximately 43% equity for a call to be profitable, so I would fold all 5 hands
10-16-2009 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fivetypes
I call a, c , d. Maybe b.
trust me, 77 is a call, lol

i doubt ak is doing much better than 33 vs w/e ******ed range she could have....probably like random flush draws, random 2 overs with a gutshot, a ******ed play with idk...AQ that wants to protect...i mean really i don't think i can give a very accurate range, but if we were to include all possible holdings 33 is gonna do about the same as ak i would guess
10-17-2009 , 11:50 AM
i think i might fold all of these hands to a solid girl live player who flats then insta open shoves 3x the pot on the flop... there is a very high probability that she has an overpair/set here, id ask her if she has a good hand and girl soulread
10-21-2009 , 01:11 PM
my actual holding was Q J and I was prepered to raise over a smaller bet or probably bet/call if checked to. when she put all her chips in I dont know what happened and did a terrible call.

she had A 3 and turn and river blanked.

I am not a big fan of big overbets like these in general but I really liked her play since it takes away the move from me and she is almost never in very bad shape when called etc.
10-22-2009 , 06:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattifnatt
my actual holding was Q J and I was prepered to raise over a smaller bet or probably bet/call if checked to. when she put all her chips in I dont know what happened and did a terrible call.

she had A 3 and turn and river blanked.

I am not a big fan of big overbets like these in general but I really liked her play since it takes away the move from me and she is almost never in very bad shape when called etc.
Yikes I hate the overbet, for her why not crai then, this is not playing poker, if you had like a pair or 2 overs or QJd in this instance, she can get you to fold some percentage of the time for a bigger pot without risking all her chips

Edit: I just checked the OP again and she is not that deep relative to pot size, so not terrible for here although I still dont like it
10-22-2009 , 07:30 PM
fold
fold
fold
fold
fold
10-22-2009 , 08:09 PM
fold
10-22-2009 , 08:47 PM
call all
10-23-2009 , 01:37 AM
I'd fold everything, pot odds dictate. Bad odds + not so great hands + unclear situation = fold.

I'd need a huge hand to call such an overbet, a very nice pocket pair, perhaps TT+, or trips/fh.

She put herself in a big risk with poor reward situation by doing this shove. I believe she made a mistake. And I believe hero calling and increasing her possible reward is a mistake too.

Give up your 2.2bb, and pick a better spot to accumulate chips.
10-23-2009 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonardo80
her line would be terrible with any hand except for Adxd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd (in this case it would just be bad). let's add anyway to her range 6 combinations of PPs above 6 because we can not really exclude a PP with certainty. So her range might be something like 88, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd. Against this range you have the following equities:

a) 39%
b) 32%
c) 37%
d) 41%
e) 31%

You need approximately 43% equity for a call to be profitable, so I would fold all 5 hands
So this would be the right analysis? Interesting everyone seems to want to put her on pps except this poster.

BTW I saw Mike Matusow make a very similar move at the FTOPS.

blinds 40/80
UTG + 1 calls, MP calls, SB call, BB (Matusow) raises to 400, 1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold

flop (t960): 7 4 4

Both have ~4.2k behind and Matusow moves allin

MP calls and Matusow shows A Q
MP shows 4 4

It's on youtube here but the commentator is a bit of a db imo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XoSANAoe-A

      
m