$560 buy in, live, 290 entries. Top 28 paid. 21 players left.

Blinds 6000,3000,1000

Overall, I have a tight, adept image. I was card dead for a while pre-bubble. I have never shown a hand that was not played appropriate. Post bubble I open shoved 3 times without a call (Q,8 twice, K,3 once).

I had about 60,000 chips and, along with 1 other player, was the short stack at the table. There are 7 players at my table, with chip stacks ranging from 10 to 40BB. The chip leader is reasonably new to the table, but has played like an ultra-nit. Post bubble, the 2 aggro players radically tightened up (from playing 100% of pots between the 2 of them pre-bubble, to about 20% each post). Everyone else has been tight post bubble.

I am UTG. I am only interested in regaining as big a stack as possible. My intent was to shove any decent cards. I was dealt J,9 suited. I presumed at least a 50% chance every one would fold (UTG bets were given a lot of credit at this table), and even if called, I would have at about a 35% chance against a calling range, for a net win rate of almost 70%.

Everyone folded except the BB, who called with AK. I lost.

So, was this as positive an EV play as I thought it was?

You said it yourself - it's a live donkament, people play atrociously. Why would you punt your stack with J9 UTG...

Wait for a better spot imo.

its a fine thin shove

Was this the Bay 101 Summer Madness on Saturday? I played it and punted 30bb with 99 vs AA.

Shoving J9s should be +EV but I think you can fold it. In these live tournaments, you can shove an 8bb stack and people will consider folding so you can have the blinds go through you and you will still have some fold equity and less people you have to get through.

I think I would shove 50% of the time and you just happened to get called and lost.

Marginal but not a mistake either folding or shoving.

assuming there is a payjump at 18 i think you should fold. Prob kinda tank fold at that.


think cu or button this would be fine but in ep i don't really like it at all.

I think this is a solid shove as long as the stacks in the blinds aren't 30+BBs cause I think they will call significantly lighter. Otherwise your risking 60k to win 16k which is great.

If called 50% of the time...

.5 x 16k = +8k

.175 x 136k = +23.8k
.325 x 60k = -19.5k

Net: + 12.3k (~2BB)

Especially if blinds are not looser and/or bigger stacks I think these calcs are good

Thanks all. I had a gnawing feeling that I should sometimes exhibit more patience vs. making thin plays. Given that the ultranit was on my left I think I had one more orbit left before feeling the need to shove thin from ep.

Yeah, this was Bay101.

There are way better spots with 20bb UTG

he got 10 biebers

Lol shoving UTG 10bbs with J9 is a thread now? Should we shut this forum down?