After the flop action, his range isn't just big draws and sets. It's not sets very often and it's weaker kings a reasonable amount. Our line is saying 'we will fold' and CO's line says 'I'm in position and it's been checked to me'. Once CO folds, I don't see this as a clear fold at all.

SRSLY?
Its a weaker king rougly 0% of the time.

Why are people putting random hands in villain's range that obviously are not there to justify stacking off. FWIW Betting the flop is fine as well. Kramer the reason I check is because often times one of the people behind us will bet and if lots of ppl get involved we can save our cbet.

So what is is his range? Why is he checking a set on this board second last to act?

I think a weaker king is absolutely possible when we scream weakness and CO is making a position bet. I don't think it's likely but it's definitely possible.

Edit: looked at another way, if you have KQo here, do you check-call three-way OOP to flop bettor, check-fold, or check-raise, once PFR meekly check-calls?

FWIW, I'm not saying we shouldn't fold but I'm interested in why people think this isn't close. I'm relatively sure that we're good agaisnt MP2's range. Whether we want to take a small edge here is a different matter. Whether we can actually play the hand in any other way than either shoving or folding is also a different matter.

registrar,

if i had KQ there, as with any real hand, i bet it.

that's why there's about a 90+% chance that MP2 doesn't have a real hand.

and that includes 89dd, which is a real hand.

no

rupert,

give me a range that checks that flop that destroys us. and if you say 'sets, 89dd' you're totally wrong.

THEOSU,
Just because you would bet a real hand there doesn't mean a random unknown will.

Yes, there's nothing that I play like MP2.

However, I do think it's reasonable that MP2 checks a made hand, and then raises it once a check-raise isn't forthcoming so I think 90%+ air is optimistic.

I maintain that MP2's range is everything I mentioned in an earlier post and we're good against that range, only dead in the water against a small part of it, and crushing a larger part of his range than most people seem to think.

i think 90% air is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too optimistic in a world where people wet their pants just thinking about slowplaying. i honestly think there is a 0-3% chance of a lower king showing up in MP2s range.. for all we know MP2 could assume that any flushdraw would have already bet the flop and if the person behind him had a flushdraw he would auto bet the flop allowing him to slowplay his set who knows; i think the only reason everyone who wants in wants in is because they think our hand is underrepped so villain is jamming rags and i dont think this is the case

i think with this much action on a board that hits so many cold call hand ranges throwing away 1 pair this early in a fairly high buyin mtt is not that big of a problem; we are checking tihs flop because we cant stand too much heat with this hand...

90% was clearly an exaggeration, but no more so than to say his range is destroying us and he's obv got a set.

it's a 1k. it's reasonable to assume some level of competence, is it not?

BTW the thing about combo draws is there are so few combos of them and you are racing vs. them there are 12 combos of 66/77 and stuff like 89dd, 9Tdd, etc. there are one combo each.

You're not racing against KdXd or AdXd.

Edit: There are probably 3 possible combos of KdXd - KQ, KJ and KT - but any combo of AdXd is possible here IMO (which adds another 10 combos). And as I said above, I'm discounting the hell out of 66, 77 and 76 given the flop check.

you guys are giving his flop check way too much weight.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 7d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.232% 52.63% 00.61% 4689 54.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 46.768% 46.16% 00.61% 4113 54.00 { KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d }

bad reason to check

this is a reason to bet, not to check

well, it looks like it still does, and you're even more clueless about where you are than you would have been if you bet.

(And before you start making "so you're betting to see where you're at?" cracks, remember this: poker is a game of information, and it DOES benefit you to play in a way that allows you to gain the most information possible about your opponents' hands, so you know what to do. by betting this flop, you define your hand and make it easier to interpret your opponents' actions (since they clearly will have some idea of what you have, and nobody is just cold trying to push someone off TPTK in these things). by not betting this flop, you have no clue as to what anyone has, and you increase the chances that you're being bluffed or semibluffed just enough to make things difficult. now you're just guessing.)

i bet close to pot on this flop and decide what to do based on who plays back at me. if mp2 cold raised me with everyone still to act i'd fold. if he called and then CO raised i'd probably fold.

just at first glance.

can we just tempban people who post **** like this? seriously? because the answer is "yes, i do like flipping coins early in ANY MTT. please continue to fold to my shoves because you don't want to."

easy chief you better back the **** up before you get smacked the **** up

This is a gross spot but honestly if I know the CO wasn't calling I'd probably shove because I think you're almost never up against a set or two pair here just basically because of his raise size.

What Nath said.

(1/sec)


sheets

i don't think he ever has a weaker king and his bet-sizing doesn't indicate a small flush draw, so we're flipping-ish against a combo draw/axdd some of the time, and destroyed some of the time. i.e. you can find much better spots than this

I like the flop check and a fold now.

holy christ, i got so pissed off i went and did math.

let's give villain some percentages here, shall we?

a) 15% chance of 66 or 77
b) 15% chance of Axdd (we'll even make it A8dd for backdoor straight possibilities)
c) 10% chance of 89dd or 45dd or 85dd.
d) 15% chance of Kxdd (we'll make it KTdd for runner runner straight possibilities)
e) 15% chance of KQ and call (and we'll make it KxQd for backdoor possibilities)
f) 5% chance of 67 (will make it 67hh blahblah)
g) 2% chance of AdKx
h) 23% chance he folds.

after calling the bet we have 2136 chips.

a) pot will be 5229. equity 1.92%. expected chip result: 100.40, net -2035.6
b) pot will be 5229. equity 61.5% expected chip result: 3215.84, net +1079.84
c) pot will be 5229. equity 43.74% expected chip result: 2287.16, net +151.16
d) pot will be 5229. equity 52.73% expected chip result: 2757.25, net +621.25
e) pot will be 5229. equity 82.83% expected chip result: 4331.18, net +2195.18
f) pot will be 5229. equity 24.55% expected chip result: 1283.72, net -852.28
g) pot will be 5229. equity 47.73% expected chip result: 2495.80, net +359.80
h) pot will be all ours! net +1138.


-2035.6 * .15 = -305.34
1079.84 * .15 = 161.98
151.16 * .1 = 15.12
621.25 * .15 = 93.19
2195.18 * .15 = 329.77
-852.28 * .05 = -64.19
359.80 * .02 = 7.19
1138 * .23 = 261.74

equals net + 499.46.


let's go major hyper conservative. he's only bluffing 15% of the time. he's only got KQ 10% of the time. we'll add 13% to a set.

-2035.6 * .28 = -569.97
2195.18 * .1 = 219.52
1138 * .15 = 170.70

you still yield a positive result, albeit only 33.54 chips. and this is giving him every backdoor straight or flush possibility possible. and if you can honestly think he has a set this often, then you're so far off base, it's not funny.

this is a clear push, and the numbers show it.

You's guys forget all the random sat donks in the ftp 1k. I agree w/ gobbo.

i forgot to mention that i was already being overly conservative with respect to my opponent's holdings in my original math. if i would truthfully put my opponent on a range, i would put 67 at about 0, a set at about 10%, a combo draw something like 30%, KQ and call about 15% or so and then a folding hand the rest which is what, 45%? but that's just me, and apparently nobody's particularly agreed with me (other than registrar, shout out, yo!).

it's way too early/late to be doing math imo.