This hand happens at 100/200 no ante - we've chipped up to like 34k from 30k in the first couple of hours and haven't really played any big pots. We've been reasonably active but not overly so.

Villain is an older guy who had been limping a dec amount but also opening to 3/3.5x some of the time too. We've played one pot with him where we isoed his limp pre w A7dd and took it down with 2 barrels on 5T5dd4x

Ok, so action goes;

Older guy limps for 200 from EP, we make it 800 with black TT from HJ, some splashy polish livepro flats the sb.

Older guy then makes it 2800 with like 32k behind.

We flat (thoughts? Im like 99.9% sure polish guy will flat too and also pretty sure that older guy has a premium - its a pure setmine, im folding 223 flops etc)

Polish guy flats.

Flop comes JT3r, polish guy checks, older guy leads 3.5k w/o too much thought. We make it 11,200 with like 20ish behind if my math at 2am/my memory is correct, he flats after around 30secs.

Turn is a rainbow K, he snap checks, we.. ?

I feel like he has AA/KK like always and im not honestly sure he doesnt find a hero fold ott w AA some % of the time if we pile as the board is now kinda "scary" (like the K basically affects none of our range but probs seems like a bad card for AA from his point of view)

Is it realistic to do anything apart from get this in? Am i just being a results oriented clown? (not to spoil results but its pretty obv whats going to happen lol)

thanks

If you have a set and someone else does as well, one of you should be broke by the river.

all in

What do you want to do c/f? All in Just unlucky. It'd be tough if you had twice as much on the river.

It would be a lot easier with 2x as much behind because we could bet/fold imo

flat the flop bet get it in now i guess

Why on earth would you want to flat the flop against a random live guy whose range is AA-KK and who's not going to fold it no matter what?

then don't flat flop! i suck at live still i guess

Go broke, then complain.

more AA than KK combos gg

You have about half your stack in there already, what can you do? If you can put him on exactly KK then yea go ahead and fold but if AA is in his range which it is you have to get it in.

more combos of AA then KK, but his turn check frequency is way higher with KK then with AA i think. Not much you can do here, though. Not enough chips left with the information we have.

Don't think so

He just picked up a gutshot with the 75% of his range that you beat. He's not folding those hands. You probably shove KQ iho.

if you're confident in your read, check turn and value bet on safe rivers. if he shoves the river you can safely fold no matter what it is almost, right?

Very weird spot, but given your reads, and that you feel he may herofold AA here (which makes sense given he seems to be worried you outflopped his AA/KK)... then why not check back?

You aren't giving AA much chance to outdraw you, and if it does you will see it and now *know* your hand is no good.

You also get some opportunity to observe his reaction (disappointment or relief) after you check behind.

Finally, by checking I think you credibly represent a QQ overpair on the flop that is now worried it got outdrawn by AK, which has the following desirable benefits:

• If he has KKK he might not get greedy at blank rivers, figuring you can't call much
• A river 9 or Ace will freeze him up no matter whether he has KK or AA
• You can SHOVE on a 9 or Ace river to represent broadway if you're feeling balla and your image can pull it off
• If the T comes at the river you played perfectly vs KKK and get all the moneez as your reward

If you're really lucky, maybe he'll be worried you checked back AQ as a super trap and will check all non-paired rivers.

Looks like a pretty clear fold preflop

Yeah I actually think this is more simple than It felt at the time.

Def agree with too eazy and chapula - guess i Just got caught up in the "I have a set and less than pot behind - cant fold" mentality, rather than actually thinking about the situation analytically.

I think the main thing that stops it being an easy jam is that i kinda think he finds a fold with AA. Like if it was T52K then i think he never finds it and we can happily jam, but in JT3K i think he might? Idk, rambling i guess

Yeah timex, a few people have said fold pre to the limp r/r also. I think its close but the reason i decided to flat is we'd be getting like 15:1 implied vs the older guy who I think has an absurdly strong range and the polish guy flats like always, he loves seeing dem flops. He might also make a pair or a draw and get excited too. I can def seeing it being a fold tho so Im willing to be convinced

Thx for all the input so far guys - I realize its a kinda dumb hand to post cos its pretty read heavy etc, just figured this was the best place to get advice on it.

I think the preflop is fine since you can play postflop nearly perfectly. And your read of the other guy coming along helps, not so much with the thought of stacking him, but there is significant extra dead money in there to win when you stack the AA/KK.

I did have an additional thought on Villain having KK vs AA... I believe AA would have simply stuck it in on that flop after you raise.

A good player would either fold (!) or shove to get full value from your relatively short stack QQ or KK before something scares you off on a later street, and a bad player on the "well I'm never folding AA here" theory (or to protect against all those draws, even though you almost never have one).

Conversely KK on that flop might start to wonder if you had trapped with AA preflop. I think his flat of your flop raise is a little silly vs shoving given how shallow you are... I mean if it's a brick at the turn is he now going to fold? But since he was kind enough to let you see that fate had preordained a miracle for him it would be awesome not to pay him off.

I think live reads change the likeliness of AA and KK in the math way. We have to count a little less combinations of AA.

A lot less combinations of KK than AA since there is an king out there. Also, couldn't he have AK/QQ some percentage of time or just be making a move preflop? Bad turn card, but I don't see how we fold a set here.