UTG+1: $47700.00
MP1: $14359.00
MP2: $21482.00
CO: $27377.00
BTN: $25196.00
SB: $44988.00
Hero (BB): $31452.00
UTG: $27736.00

Pre Flop: ($1800.00) Hero is BB with 8 A
6 folds, SB raises to $3078

I am in the BB, blinds are 600/1200 w 15o ante.

The bubble just broke. We had both been very aggressive up to the bubble. What is the best plan of attack?

Call, yo.

ye you're kinda too deep to shove, seeing a flop in position is gonna be way more +ev

Stacks are pretty awkward here, I think I'd probably call, a little less effective and I like a shove. But I don't hate a shove here, especially ITM.

7200 and call shove

villains 4 bet shove range and a8os equity against it?
Unless you're deadly afraid of seeing a flop and horrible postflop I dont see how this could ever be more +ev, if it is pf at all.

There's two possibilities. Either villain is going to fold the vast majority of his range, making the play +EV just from fold equity even though we're in bad shape when we get it in. Or else he's going to monkey his stack off with a ton of worse hands which is also great for us. If villain is opening 50% or 60% from the SB which seems likely based on the OP's reads, then it's literally impossible for raise/call to not be significantly +EV no matter how villain responds to our 3bet.

^^ The fact that raise/call is profitable against a given opening range doesn't mean that the "call" part of raise/call is profitable, especially in terms of $EV, raise/folding could be more profitable if he's shipping a tight range, so I don't agree with what you wrote there. And if he's opening that wide flatting initially is going to be profitable as well.

a8o is about 30% against the top 10%, lets assume he raises 50% and shoves top10% (which incidentally overlaps quite well with the hands he would shove if we showed him A8o after raising) =>

80% of the time we win T5400
20% of the time we put in slightly over 30000 to win roughly 64000, losing 30000 14% and winning 64000 6%

=> 0.8 x 5400 - 0.14 x 30000 + 0.06 x 64000 = 3960.

That's quite a lot of chips to win without "having" to outmaneuver him postflop and only busting 6% of the time. If he shoves any tighter or wider it only gets better so yeah 3bet/calling seems pretty awesome.

I realize that, but I don't think it's very realistic that his shoving range would be that tight given the aggressive dynamic that was described. There's already 6K in the pot and I'm suggesting we invest an additional 6K on the 3-bet. If you really think villain is folding 80% of his range, when we're only risking the size of the pot, then sure, 3-bet ATC and fold to a shove unless you have the nizzles (and calling is not going to be more +EV than this) but I just don't expect him to fold so many hands. I think he's going to jam a whole bunch of middle SCs and broadway cards.

Also I don't think the cEV/$EV discrepancy is all that important since the bubble just broke. In these big FTP tournies, you have to eliminate like 3/4 of the ITM players before the payouts are even double the mincash so I just wouldn't worry about that at this point in the tournament.

FWIW this tourney only paid 36 spots.

Does anyone see merit in just shoving ourselves? I doubt he is rebluffing in this spot, so a shove may actually fold out some hands that a 3x 3bet would not. Thoughts?

Meh, a shove looks super weak and might force him to call optimally.

against an aggro opponent with no bvb history (ie this particular raise size doesnt mean anything to you) shoving has to have a positive expectation here, and with a ****ty ace which is going to be a pita to play postflop, i just go allin. id call with different sorts of good hands though. and if i were going to r/c id make it bigger, not 7200 like my mang bibbit suggested.

Is there no second decision point?