Venetian Deep Stacks, $1,000 + $60

21 players left, 18 cash

T2,000/T4,000 + T500 level

Hero has T74,500 before the blinds
Villain has approximately T475,000

Hero's image is reasonably tight, has moved in twice on Day 2 (this is about 40 minutes in - tournament has gone from 26 players to 21 in that time).

Villain is aggressive and good.

Pot: T9,500
Hero (SB): QT
Villain (BB): ??

Everyone, including Button Folds.
Hero (SB): ??

What do you do here?

I'm most specifically interested in shoving ranges for Hero.

I'm pretty sure there was a huge thread on this a while back and ppl were pretty evenly split between shoving and limp/reraising.

allin

arent we a bit deep to push here... i like call if hes very aggro limp rr

Added point, we're 4 minutes from T3,000/T6,000 + T1,000 level, if this changes anything. M goes from current 7 to 4.

QT is at the lower end of my shoving range and 75k is close to the maximum I'm willing to get jammy with here.

It would help to know whether villain lets me peek at flops when I complete...

I'm pretty sure Villain is re-popping most completes here.

limp/RR is much much better vs any feasible repopping range for villain (especially if that's top 80%) than open shoving 18.5 BB

^^ I don't know about the 80% part of it, if the guy's repopping that much maybe l/rr'ing QT is the maximally exploitive strategy (it would take some calculations that I don't feel like doing right now), but your general statement that l/rr'ing is much better vs. any feasible repopping range is contradicted by the writings of Bill Chen in the Mathematics of Poker and Tysen Streib in Kill Everyone, which both conclude that shoving is optimal here.

Edit: That's with cEV = $EV, in this near-the-bubble spot, I'm sure the gap between shoving and limp/reraising widens rather than narrows, because you're significantly increasing the probability of getting called by limp/reraising, which increases the probability of busting.

I'm clueless when it comes to ICM/$ev- is it definitely worth it to shove in this spot?

Hypothetically, what if he were calling us with the range below, which is 29% of the time (very light, but still possible), and we would be winning only about 4,700chips on average and be eliminated roughly 1 in 6 times- is it worth it to push?

Does it change depending on whether we're avg chip stack or near the bottom? If stacks are reversed, it's an easy push right? How do I figure out the point (in chipstacks) where a shove would be neutral $ev in this situation?

Sorry if these are stupid questions. Please enlighten me.




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

601,018,704 games 0.005 secs 120,203,740,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.693% 55.99% 01.70% 336530011 10214321.50 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, JTs, A3o+, K8o+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 42.307% 40.61% 01.70% 244060050 10214321.50 { QdTd }

Doing precise ICM calculations in this spot would require the rest of the stacks of all players remaining in the tournament and an ICM calculator capable of handling 21 players, I have neither. In general, the shorter stacked you are relative to the rest of the field, the less effect ICM will have. The closer you are to the bubble, the more effect it will have -- here being 3 away from the money and being short-stacked (at least relative to the blinds, OP didn't specify whether he's short relative to the rest of the field but I assumed he was) means that the ICM effects will not be that significant. And ICM will affect calling decisions more than shoving decisions, because the likelihood of getting knocked out when you call for all your chips is much higher.

And yeah, if the stacks were reversed this would be an insta-shove, because ICM would force the short stack to call tighter.

i think l/rr is better in this spot he may fold A2 and mb 33-44

I really doubt villian is calling this loose, it's a liveament...

I like open shipping for icm reasons and limp rr when it's straight cEV

22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+, Q8o+, J4s+, J8o+, T6s+, T8o+, 95s+, 98o, 85s+, 87o, 74s+, 64s+, 54s

This is assuming villain will call with 22+, A2+, K3s+, K7o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J9s+, JTo, T9s. If his calling range is tighter than this (which it probably is, given that you're on the bubble), you can profitably shove lighter.

Hard to be very precise here on everything but:

Average Stack at this point is T145,833.
So Hero is almost exactly 1/2 of Average Stack.

Hero is probably somewhere in the 16th-18th out of 21 range. There are some stacks shorter than Hero's, but not by very much (1 orbit or so).

Interesting, we have 2 calling ranges for Villain which are pretty correlated:

22+, A2s+, A2o+, K3s+, K7o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J9s+, JTo, T9s
22+, A2s+, A3o+, K6s+, K8o+, Q9s+, QTo+, JTs

You think the top range is too lose? What would be your calling range for Villain?

Really? The problem with l/rr here in my mind is that if he raises (say 3x, which seemed normal at the table), we have the following:

Hero has T74,500 before the blinds
Villain has approximately T475,000

Pot: T9,500
Hero (SB): QT
Villain (BB): ??

Folded to Hero, completes for T2,000 (Pot T11,500)
Villain: Raises to T12,000 (Pot T19,500)

Hero Shoves for T70,500 total (T8,000 call + T62,500 raise), Villain would need to call T62,500 for a pot of T90,000.

So 1.44:1. What is Villain laying down here that he would have called the T72,500 shove with? Also, what is he calling with now that he would have folded?

I feel that we need more background info.

One question I have is how important is cashing to you? If you are a tourny regular, than I like a raise to 15,500 and call a shove.

If you want to cash then fold, limp, or raise/fold.

Cashing would be nice, but not necessary.

Also, the payout structure really sucks to be eeking here:
245 Players:
1st: $73,292
2nd: $43,029
3rd: $26,007
4th: $21,278
5th: $14,186
6th: $11,821
7th: $9,457
8th: $7,093
9th: $4,729
10th-12th: $3,310
13th-15th: $2,837
16th-18th: $2,364

A bit of a philosophical question with this structure though: since FT is only double the money for 18th, should we be eeking? It seems like doubling up isn't very valuable to Hero here. How does this factor in?

Let's ignore that I think the Venetian structure sucks (having 89.2% of the money at the Final Table), how does this change things?

You said you have given him no reason to think you're going crazy and he may or may not understand hand ranges. The fact that he's "good" could be that he's a live pro who's a little lost with preflop play...

His range may be as tight as AQ+ and 88+. He only has to lay down a few hands in the above range for this to be a very clear ship on your part.

open ship>limp shove>open fold>raise call>limp fold>raise fold imo

I'm not sure I understand the question, but ICM dictates that if option A (shoving) and option B (limp raising) have the same EV you should go with the option that preserves your tournament life more often.

FWIW, my calling range was just a hypothetical, not for this hand, but more for online vs. a good player who assumes you're shoving any two. And thanks, Mr. Terry.

I think ur 2 deep to shove. If you raise, his stack is so big he can just call u a ton. I think the best play here is to limp w/ the intention of l/rr or betting any flop (unless u truly nail it).

My question is specific to the fact that because of the very flat payout structure from 10th to 18th - how does that factor into calculations, since doubling here is less valuable than it would be in say, the WSOP ME, where 10th is 1.77x 18th, vs. this structure, where 10th is 1.4x 18th.

(Or, I'll try in english: Doubling doesn't help your EV that much.)