3-bet pre obv. I don't see him 4-betting insanely stupid wide but wide enough you def have his shoving range crushed. I do expect him to flat a whole lot with hands you completely dominate to try to outplay you postflop though.

What do you guys think Sorel's view of Todd's range is throughout this hand, and how do you think Sorel would act with his range given Todd's range?

What I'm getting at is that Todd's hand is either a draw or a middle pair once he calls the flop, right? And we assume Sorel's preflop range is wide, and at what point, if any, has that range narrowed given Sorel's view of Todd's range?

Given Todd's hand actually being at the top of his perceived range and Sorel's range never really narrowing, I think that makes this a call on the river.

I'm certainly not sure of any of this, though. I think it's a tough hand for Todd on every street and every time I think this way and call some aggro guy down with a medium holding I end up feeling like an idiot and grinding a small stack for the next six hours.

As for field strength, I would say it was about what I'd expect out of a $5k weekday prelim, perhaps a bit softer then my expectations. These are always going to be among the tougher fields. I would guess almost everyone that has posted in this thread had some sort of edge. How big, I have no idea. Probably quite similar to the online 109r or $1k.

eh, i dont really think todd has the top of his range here especially what sorel would assume is the top of todd's range. i say this b/c sorel's hand is pretty polarized by the river in that he's never valuebetting a worse hand and AQ here is basically the nuts given the turn action so sorel should know that todd knows that JJ here is the same as something like 77 (assuming the two bricks that rolled off weren't a 7 obv). I mean for everyone advocating a call on this river I assume you are also wanting to call with 77 as well?

As for the hand I think it's slightly more optimal to fold. I think it's so close because I really feel like Sorel will have a good idea what you have by the river and will be bluffing at a pretty good bluff frequency along with getting value out of everything that beats you that it really is a toss up here such that you should take other factors into your decision (i.e. tourney life, finding a better spot, etc.) If it was a cash game and Sorel had the propensity to start to tilt after being called down on a bluff than this would immediately turn to a call.

What better hands does Sorel think Todd has when Todd quickly calls the flop and slowly calls the turn?

Todd,
If he's callign 3bets with T5s you can't flat pf.

because you quickly called the flop i think it makes this a call. hes never giving up on the river after betting the turn, and because you quickly called the flop i think hes betting the turn a large chunk of time.

How deep are you on the river?

I'll have ~1400 left after making the call, which he knows because I told him I had 10K before making the call on the turn.

what i meant, and i didn't articulate it very well, was just that the fact that todd has the top of his range from sorel's perspective should not factor into whether it's a call or a fold. the absolute strength of todd's hand is meaningless here. we all know all he has is a bluff catcher and we all know that sorel knows this. sorel's range here is polarized into 'nuts' or air and since there are so many combos of the 'nuts' here (meaning there are a ton of hands that beat us, and he's playing every single one this exact same way) it's meaningless to say at this point on the river "we have the very top of our range the way we played it we have to call!"

unless of course sorel can show up with TT here...which is a bit of stretch

This wasn't in the OP, but that was at 25/50 with 15K effective, 300 BBs deep, he made it 175, I made it 525, he called, which left an SPR of 12 (144775/12). Here, if I 3x it and make it 1275 and he calls, that will leave an SPR of a little over 3 (9225/2800). So the situations are very different, I don't think he'll be calling that wide here.

Okay, I get what you are saying and you are mostly right. Although, I think you also said you view the river decision as extremely close, so if there is some chance that Sorel shows up with 88-TT then there is at least some small amount of additional equity for having JJ over 77. That being said, it is unlikely to be enough to make the difference in calling vs folding.

All that being said, my point remains pretty much the same. Sorel knows that Todd's most likely range by far when we get to the river is 77-JJ and missed flush draws so I maintain that it is pretty likely that Sorel's range on the river is the same as it was preflop.

If Sorel is good enough to turn 88 into a bluff and value bet Q9o on the river then i think the best play is to fold the turn as played.

I'm still not convinced 3betting pre is the most optimal play but I certainly understand the argument for doing it and could be wrong.