BCPC Hand v Dennis Phillips - High Stakes MTT Strategy

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BCPC Hand v Dennis Phillips

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11-21-2008 , 01:30 AM

NicholasJ

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

Blinds 300/600 w 50 ante. Dennis Phillips limps UTG w roughly 15k, he had been limping a bit, prob more than he open raised. I am in the SB with 9700. Big blind is bad and very passive preflop, and has 20k or so. Last time I shoved I showed AA and had otherwise been fairly tight. It folds to me. How is my shove? Does anyone prefer a complete?

11-21-2008 , 01:32 AM

OkTime4PlanB

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,957

telling us your hand would help, no?

11-21-2008 , 01:36 AM

NicholasJ

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

I have KQo

11-21-2008 , 01:41 AM

La Brujita

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 5,635

isn't this a super standard shove?

11-21-2008 , 01:47 AM

typohh

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 130

Its tempting allright, your relative stack size to utg is perfect, he is utterly crippled if he calls and loses. If he folds you increase yout stacksize by almost 20%. Still I cant help but think 16bb shove on single limper is spewy, I would much prefere 7-10bb. One reason he is limping in more than opening for a raise, is that there are too many stacks good for 3bet but not good for 2bet on limper. And ofcourse there is the fact that is is limping UTG, his range is kinda narrow andu will get called a reasonable % of the time.

11-21-2008 , 02:06 AM

NicholasJ

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

Quote:

Originally Posted by La Brujita

isn't this a super standard shove?

I thought/hoped so. What range are you shoving here?

11-21-2008 , 02:17 AM

typohh

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 130

This is without ICM, so the actual odds are a bit worse. First number of how often u get called, 2nd number what equity you need when called to break even.

20% -> 7%
30% -> 24%
40% -> 32%
50% -> 37%
60% -> 40%

We can assume, BB calls around 2% of the time, thats QQ+ and most AK hands. If UTG plays 10% of all hands (all pocket pairs, good broadways, some connected suited), and calls JJ+,AK, you will get called 30% of the time, and have equity of 25.3%. Which is close, and then BB calls 2% of the time, and u have equity 19.7%. Throw in ICM, and its -$EV to shove, and probably is -cEV too.

11-21-2008 , 03:46 AM

NicholasJ

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

Huh? He isn't calling with AQs? AQo? JJ? TT?

11-21-2008 , 04:04 AM

typohh

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 130

Quote:

Originally Posted by NicholasJ

Huh? He isn't calling with AQs? AQo? JJ? TT?

Just saying it doesnt matter what range he calls with its -$EV. If he calls with AQ it only makes it worse.

11-21-2008 , 04:35 AM

#10

olapetter

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 245

I shove every time

11-21-2008 , 04:41 AM

#11

OkTime4PlanB

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by typohh

Just saying it doesnt matter what range he calls with its -$EV. If he calls with AQ it only makes it worse.

$ev i doubt matters here at all, cEV does....

11-21-2008 , 06:43 AM

#12

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 15,623

Snippity snap imo.

11-21-2008 , 07:41 AM

#13

Dura_man

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 222

Dont listen to typohh. typo please shut up they dont need to hear about icm!

11-21-2008 , 09:22 AM

#14

Todd Terry

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 16,301

Against someone limping more than he openraised this is the easiest shove ever. I'd shove very wide there, especially with a tight image.

11-21-2008 , 03:09 PM

#15

typohh

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 130

So I guess you all think his UTG limp range is so weak he cant call much at all? If villain limps 10% of his hands, and calls with JJ+,AQ+ its definately -cEV. The wider he calls the worse it gets obviously. I'm probably wrong here, and just want to know why. What is his UTG limp range and call range aproximately?

Last edited by typohh; 11-21-2008 at 03:34 PM.

11-21-2008 , 03:56 PM

#16

Bond18

banned

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 10,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

Snippity snap imo.

Bingo bango bongo. Craaaaaam.

11-21-2008 , 04:18 PM

#17

NicholasJ

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,761

Thx guys. He obv had AQo because he is a luckbox.

11-21-2008 , 04:48 PM

#18

Reckless1der

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,552

Quote:

Originally Posted by typohh

What is his UTG limp range and call range aproximately?

Well we know that he will limp AK UTG.

11-21-2008 , 09:44 PM

#19

Tiltyjoker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 4,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by NicholasJ

Thx guys. He obv had AQo because he is a luckbox.

pwned

11-22-2008 , 02:45 AM

#20

BanSooners

adept

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 791

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bond18

Bingo bango bongo. Craaaaaam.

Well I guess I suck b/c I complete there a huge majority of the time & lead any flop rather than cram and hope a gambling player mucks after limping utg

11-22-2008 , 07:04 PM

#21

JesseB_11

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,301

Quote:

Originally Posted by BanSooners

Well I guess I suck b/c I complete there a huge majority of the time & lead any flop rather than cram and hope a gambling player mucks after limping utg

How is this better than shoving preflop? OP has stated that hes been limping more hands than he has raised, which makes this a pretty easy shove.

Last edited by JesseB_11; 11-22-2008 at 07:11 PM.

11-22-2008 , 09:24 PM

#22

OkTime4PlanB

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by BanSooners

Well I guess I suck b/c I complete there a huge majority of the time & lead any flop rather than cram and hope a gambling player mucks after limping utg

is this a level?

11-23-2008 , 02:40 AM

#23

s33w33d

adept

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 722

Vs. Phillips this is the nuts, but he's a luckbox and runs good.

11-23-2008 , 03:54 AM

#24

TheNewf

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,593

lol the first thing I was thinking when I opened this thread was the one time I saw him limp UTG in the EPT London high roller he (claimed) had AQo and folded to a 4x raise from UTG+1 or something but that was close to a very large bubble.

11-23-2008 , 06:55 AM

#25

uksupermario

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 428

Shove seems natural but isn't this kinda dependent on Mr. Phillips' previous limp-calling behavior? You say he's been limping a lot, but has he limped UTG before? If yes, what happened? If no, how confident can you be that he is weak here? I'd be more inclined to shove if he's previously limped and folded to a raise, and especially if he's limped UTG and folded to a raise.

Completing wouldn't be tragic, but shoving has to be superior if you can somehow discount QQ+, AQ+ as part of his limping range.

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