So yeah relatively early, no real history with villain but he seems pretty terrible. Has been open limping and calling raises w/ garbage frequently. His near meaningless stats are 32/13/1.5 over only 30 hands. This at least shows hes played about 1/3 of his hands. Do I fold turn? Fold river as played?


Full Tilt Poker The Sunday Mulligan No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: t3010
MP2: t1815
Hero (CO): t6015
BTN: t2945
SB: t5480
BB: t2930
UTG: t5250
UTG+1: t6330
UTG+2: t5765

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is CO with A A
3 folds, MP1 calls t40, 1 fold, Hero raises to t160, 3 folds, MP1 calls t120

Flop: (t380) 2 5 9 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t240, MP1 calls t240

Turn: (t860) 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t480, MP1 raises to t975, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t495

River: (t2810) T (2 players)
MP1 bets t980, Hero requests TIME

eh wow, sets are certainly in his range, A3/54/t9 seem pretty unlikely. Getting 3-1 I just cant fold here unless I've only seen him show down the goods. You're mostly losing but he could still show up with smth like A9.

these fishes ussually just raise turn with the goods, I would just fold, as played i would call river for the odds and curiosity. Its so tough to play against these guys.

I would call given your description of the player and the pot odds.

I know a lot of people disagree with this "theorem" but I fully believe that anyone who is bad enough to take such a goofy line, is bad enough to take such a line with a hand that we can beat. People will argue against this til the day they die on 2p2 though, at least from what I remember.

Personally, in my experience, I would not be surprised if the villain showed us something like A9, KK, or total air.I wouldn't be surprised to see a set either but I think u have to call getting such good odds, you really don't need to have the best hand all that often to make calling profitable.

a9 and kk are really unlikley in this spot...

i think villain would rather check raise flop with a9 then c/r turn...

it really looks like a set if villain is really that donkish...

but folding turn... hmmm i prob can't... and river too...

Minraise on the turn beats AA 90%. This is the standard donkey slowplay, its the only way they can think of to build the pot.

Given MP1 history I would have just RR AI on turn. I mean look at that trifling SS 3k to start then makes that play. AA win like 80% against this donk. i would go as low to say Q10. not that i would have played the hand with that at least that way. folding to this character on the river is bad bad.

Given reads is anybody opposed to crai on turn, and b/f if turn checks through or are we missing value too often?

these smallish river bets are always a monster imo

FYP

ok but why would you all call the turn if you are going to fold on a blank river getting such good odds?

read + min/ghey raise + not shoving river = set

This is my experience too.

he already raised 4 times in the 30 hands we have on him, so i imagine he is going to raise TT+.

i disagree with every part of your statement here minus the sets in his range and the fact we're 'mostly losing' here.

i'll explain: 54/T9 are definitely part of his range. getting in this spot is the problem at hand (i.e. do we call the turn?) not whether to call now or not. aren't we being offered 4:1 not 3:1 (1000 to call to win 4000)? a9, again unlikely as we have two aces.