So,3 handed,you think that JJ are not tight enough ? Well,then you are obv. implying QQ+.

yup, ICM is huge here the more I look at payouts. Even if you're looking at a hypothetical 50/50 freeroll by folding, a good player should probably fold JJ, and you do gain a lot of information after the culmination of this hand as well, which is semi important as you're still deep enough to play poker.

fatcurt, I like the fold even without your reasoning and with it in mind its a very good (easy!) fold.

ignoring ICM and call because of that is burning money. its not an "ordinary" 10-15bb shove, its a 36bb shove + an iso + BTN have us covered which obv is a big factor.

You don't even need the ICM model to see that this is a fold. Use whatever equity model you want for 3-handed. You make $3k if you fold and SB wins. If he doesn't, SB and Button swap stacks ( Button has about 1/2 of SB stack preflop) and you are in the same situation as before. Folding is a freeroll for $3k.

On the other hand, if you jam and lose, you get nothing. Now what % of the time do you lose a 3-way pot with JJ? You lose a lot. Best case possible is button and Sb have completely random hands in which case you lose 39% of the time. If you put each one on any pair or broadway you lose 54% of the time.

The kicker-- if you win and triple up-- you still have an opponent with a lot of chips. No matter how you figure the equity, ICM or not, you need to win about 75% of the time to make it a comparable deal to the freeroll.

p.s. 8.8k already awarded to each plyr; now a bubble situtation $7k 1st, $3k 2nd, 0 for third.

if sb folded do we fold?

FWIW you turned my previous call into a fold.

Preety sure this is an EZ fold due to ICM. Button prob has a preety damn tight reisoing range here to a 36bb shove. As said before winning JJ in a 3 way pot is very hard thus take ur free roll for 3k plz

Yeah the more I think about it it's probably a fold but even against three overs it's pretty close. It's certainly not an easy fold, nor is it a huge mistake if you call.

Sorry for the wait, here's the results for anyone who's interested.


Full Tilt Poker $80,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10000/t20000 Blinds + t2500 - 3 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t1432135 M = 38.19
Hero (BB): t598283 M = 15.95
BTN: t738582 M = 19.70

Pre Flop: (t37500) Hero is BB with J J
BTN raises to t736082 all in, SB raises to t1429635 all in, Hero requests TIME, 1 fold

Flop: (t1499664) T Q 9

Turn: (t1499664) 9

River: (t1499664) 3

Final Pot: t1499664
SB shows A J (a pair of Nines)
BTN shows 7 7 (two pair, Nines and Sevens)
BTN wins t1499664

this

heeeellll no!