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215 Sunday Million > Fold Top FH? 215 Sunday Million > Fold Top FH?

11-22-2013 , 12:27 PM
Haha I remember this hand was vs a friend of mine he is pretty solid, so I think with that information you should fold since this is a riv card he won't bluff very often and is always checking turn behind with hands that do have sd value. Pretty close actually between c/f and c/c turn, although he might have some floats theee, but I think he is def giving those up on riv since your hand is so face up and can't go from the assumption that someone is folding here KK+. Also with this line you might have sometimes Qx yourself.

Edit: although this might be some subjective analysis since I know his game pretty well. Pbb snapping riv vs unknowns as you saw him.
11-22-2013 , 12:45 PM
Wtf, bbv, snap call with 2nd nuts. Hard to make quads.

Turn is fine IMO. Would push river. He isn't going to bluff much here, but hard for him to fold a boat.
11-22-2013 , 12:49 PM
Oh I love those people who are saying 'cant have quads, call' without actually breaking down the hand.
11-22-2013 , 04:35 PM
Call call call call
11-22-2013 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foxyy
Ok so my thinking here is that im really only ever getting 2 streets of value from worse (77-1010). Kinda either way ahead, or way behind spot. JJ+ 4 bets pre. Therefore i feel that checking the turn here is maybe best? As villain will bet pretty much all hands flatting flop. I do have nut FD blocker, reducing FD floats, so i guess villains range after he bets consists of QX/broadway hh/AX/complete floats. In hindsight, i think this river card is probably one of the better rivers. Villain is pretty much never bluffing this river i dont think (my range is basically 99+, possibly AK/AJ which folds), and villain isnt value betting worse.

Really not sure, was a really awkward spot. Villain obvs had KdQd.
Villain could have flatted you with KK-10s and valueshove river since you fold, but if you have a read on him and he is a straightforward player that would get KK in pre and play JJ-1010 more carefully, being afraid of you having overpair/Queen....what other hands than quads does he play this way?
11-22-2013 , 08:06 PM
Yeh, only quads seem to make sense. I agree he usually doesn't play KK/JJ this way. However, you are getting 2.5-1 and there aren't many combinations for quads. Also, villain is unknown. Does that mean he isn't capable of floating the paired board that should miss both players?

I also think betting the river has to be better.
11-24-2013 , 01:44 PM
is there really a discussion about folding here? preposterous. even if u give him every single combo of AQ,KQ,QJ, and KK as the only hand we beat (which is absurd, assuming an unknown never floats/spazzes, and that he'll always check back JJ on the river when he underreps/traps and flats pre with it, lol) your AA has 37.5% and you're getting 2.5 to 1. under more realistic assumptions your equity is far greater and makes folding even more nonsensical
11-24-2013 , 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol
is there really a discussion about folding here? preposterous. even if u give him every single combo of AQ,KQ,QJ, and KK as the only hand we beat (which is absurd, assuming an unknown never floats/spazzes, and that he'll always check back JJ on the river when he underreps/traps and flats pre with it, lol) your AA has 37.5% and you're getting 2.5 to 1. under more realistic assumptions your equity is far greater and makes folding even more nonsensical
Sort of unlikely he flatted the 3b with KK, but he could push TT/JJ for value or have 44 or 66 and be bluffing after getting counterfeited. Or it could just be a pure float/bluff on a paired board.
11-24-2013 , 05:27 PM
i misread stack sizes before posting (thought we were at 30bb) but i still think it's incorrect to fold this river, and i'd prob be more inclined to just b/b/b
11-26-2013 , 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyha Karu
Ignore the post above. People who dont have a clue in general shouldnt post advice.

Easy fold. Worst river card to bluff and he is very likely to get J J plus in pre. He is not valuebeting 8 8-10 10 on river most likely.

Turn shouldve been a valuebet against a bunch of pocket pairs and river a check-fold on anything other than the Q(with the river Q he will now have loads more pair than Qx combos) just cause he will likely fold some of his pairs by river without any reads on u being agro.
***... If i want to give my opinion I will, if you dont like it, tough luck eh?

bore.

      
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