Sunday $215 on Carbon 100k GTD.

100/200 w 20 ante.

I (~20k) R UTG+1 75dd
CO (~10k) Calls
BB (~11k) Calls

Kd 9c 4d

I CB 800 into about 1450. CO Folds. BB calls. Turn 5c. Chk Chk. River Qd. He bets 1400 into 3050 relatively fast.

Should I raise there for value or just call with the flush? Obv, if raising then folding to a shove? Is 1400 a small bet that would suggest he doesn't have flush cause he would bet more or is it a guessing game and we should just call? No read on villain. Not even HUD stats to make conclusions either.

unless u have a maniac image (or have been caught river raise bluffing before), no value in raising here.

Probability of getting called by worse when hero raises < Probability of being beat/put in uncomfortable spots

The fact that the Kd and Qd are on the board sort of narrows down the combinations of better flushes. I also think AJdd, ATdd, A9dd, JTdd, J9dd, T9dd, 98dd are usually check / raising the flop. Obviously not all the time, but I really only think in general he will only have about 5 or 6 combinations of better flushes in his range. That being said, I don't see many combinations of other hands that will bet/call this river. KQ makes sense. I don't really see him having 44/99 but I guess we could give him a few of those. Do you have any reads? Is there any chance he has Q9 / JT / K5 in his flop call range? It is only HU when it gets to him...

I guess I make a thin value raise to 3875, just because I think in this day and age most people are taking more aggressive lines with Axdd / JTdd / T9dd / J9dd on this board, so I really don't think villain has many of those. But I could be wrong! Cool hand.

he just has so few combos of better flushes with the Kd and Qd out there that you can't give up the potential for him to just be playing like a monkey and pay you off with something weird imho

Nice analysis. I agree after thinking that there is a room for a thin value and one of your guess was right. He did have K5o

Indeed cool hand en interesting analysis, thanks for it! I'd also raise river and fold to a shove, nh

I would just call river. But I think you should bet turn. Its tough to analyze a hand without actual opponent names and your image though.

yes r/f river

I don't agree with betting the turn. The turn is a complete blank and doesn't change anything so if he's calling the flop he's calling the turn most of the time. You risk getting blown off your draw when you can either c/c and pot control or he checks back and you see a free river with a meh draw.

Like stated above, there are so few combos of better flushes not to raise for thin value. Even though it looks exactly like a flush so many people in this tournament just play ridiculous early on with the deep stacks. If he shoves it's a pretty easy fold.

Pretty standard r/f imo. The timing tell and bet size definitely only strengthen the raise argument. You guys give way too much credit for randoms being able to fold non-flush hands here.