Poker Stars $1000+$50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t30 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BB): t6416 M = 10.43
UTG: t3955 M = 6.43
UTG+1: t11695 M = 19.02
MP1: t14693 M = 23.89
MP2: t6426 M = 10.45
CO: t3313 M = 5.39
BTN: t19424 M = 31.58
SB: t8595 M = 13.98

Pre Flop: (t615) Hero is BB with J Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t500, 5 folds, Hero calls t250

Flop: (t1365) 5 4 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: (t1365) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t750, UTG+1 calls t750

River: (t2865) A (2 players)

Villan is std tag reg. Do we think villans checking back range bets this turn. What kind of sexy betsizing can we make on this turn? river is cool imo. How do we get value here

bet?......our hand is not strong enough to c/r and he is never calling a c/r with worse i guess...not sure about sizing 1900 could look like an attempt to buy the pot

with your stack I dont think I would go over 1550. u got around 5500 on the river its really hard not to show huge strength when u bet around 2k.

checking back range has to be something like high cards with a club. Prob cbets all pairs, nice A's, and solid draws. Therefore, unless villain as AcTx+, you're probably not getting called a whole lot on the river. This minority of hands will likely value bet river anyway (but you can't extract as much value than if you bet yourself)

I probably start by timbanking, then checking - making it appear like you took a stab and gave up. A raise may or may not be in order if we induce a bet.
If for some reason villain checked back TT on the flop or something then berate self...

good post. what about turn? I think were losing value using a std betsize given the range we have villan on

nice turn bet, 14-1600 otr

id be pretty likely to chek this river, he bluffs a high percent at this card, rarely has pairs 66-kk and shud have a whole bunch of ax hands cr seems good to me, whatever his hand it seems likely he will bet it and might call off with strong ax hands

pretty easy river bet. dont let him get away from this cheap. nh

Bet 1500-2k and nh

River is a c/r against most villains.

To elaborate, most villains are betting their Ax hands on the river, have very few better hands after checking flop, and are bluffing river when they do get there with air (if they peeled KcXx or whatever on the turn). The chance you win two bets instead of one is going to make more of a difference than the difference in sizing between their river bet and yours, even if it only happens around 15% of the time. This is a river you aren't going to want to bluff-lead much (again, this is for most villains, who will be c-betting paired hand a really high % of the time and so have a misproportionately high amount of Ax hands in their range), so having a c/r range here consisting of strong value hands and bluffs is a good way to attack a range that has a small number of strong hands in it. It's also a good defense against getting bluffed on this river when you have one pair hands.

I was worried about backing the c/r into trips or a boat and playing for stacks where the villan gets to decided when to stack off and when not to, however your c/bet analysis of how it effects the range distribution makes a lot of sense and agree here 100%. On point good analysis imo.

sick post!

what i was trying to say..... only better, nh

Misproportionally good post

I was thinking of this too, but think that riverbet size discrepancy is more than made up for if villain has even a small bluffing frequency, which they obvioulsy will.

What if we know for certain that villain will never bluff river (i.e. we have a large sample where passive villain gives up on all busted draws, or something dumb like that). Does this hypothetical swing the river decision to betting and setting a higher price? Point being that I don't think villain has many hands that can call a c/r, even if they can not-so-thinly value bet river (AK or 5X being the only exceptions)

Thoughts?

+1 to neverscared, great post sir

I don't think so, although I could be biased because of my image. Your statement that you don't think villain "has a hand that can call a c/r" assumes villain won't call a c/r with an aces-up type bluffcatcher, which I think thinking villains will do with some frequency (depending on their perception of hero, of course). If villain was betting every aces-up hand in his range and folding all of them to a raise this would be a ridiculously profitable spot to bluff given our assumptions about his c-betting range.

I also think you're overestimating the value of setting your own sizing. I'd be much more concerned with villain checking back some hands that might call a bet than with the differences between your value bet and villains bet-fold, unless he's particularly stationy irrespective of sizing, or value bets particularly tiny. Without more specific information, I'd guess that it would be hard for your average bet sizing in this spot to be greater than villains by more than 450 chips.

It's pretty easy to toy with these assumptions using something like excell if you want to. Fiddle with ranges to get to the river in poker stove, make some assumptions about your bet sizing, frequency you get called, opponent's bet sizing, frequency he calls a c/r, etc. It'll help you build up a nice intuition about spots like these, so you have an idea of how much you have to get called when you c/r or how much bigger your bet has to be than your opponent's to make one line or the other better.

Given how good stacks are for CRAI, and combined with the game theory considerations WRT C/R bluffing and getting to show down medium-strength one pair hands, I think going for a CR is going to be better.

Yea this is what I was trying to decide gametime. good posts TY
How big are you blasting turn? what about CR?