Very interesting hand came up when we were down to 12 remaining in the tournament. This villain has been restealing from me a lot preflop and I haven't been able to see a lot of his hands. This is the first time he flatted me OOP. He played 23/19 over 109 hands... sn is Quagmire if that rings a bell

Poker Stars $150+$12 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t4000/t8000 Blinds - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (CO): t241106
BTN: t182413
SB: t213174
BB: t115256
UTG: t282898
MP: t290203

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with A 8
2 folds, Hero raises to t22000, 1 fold, SB calls t18000, 1 fold

Flop: (t56800) J J T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t40000, SB calls t40000

Turn: (t136800) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t136800) 8 (2 players)
SB bets t40000, Hero folds

I check behind on flop a lot, as played I think you have to call the river bet.

Fold or Raise.

omg no to the fold or raise comment.....i prob call the river although the sizing means you are rarely good.

Calling with A8 here gives out so much information and can cost you a lot of $ in a tournament like this.

Anyways the turn was your time to make a move. You decided to check? Why?

Check behind on the flop. This flop hits practically every hand, but you totally missed it. Do you have to cbet every time?

I would call the small river bet, as villain could have a busted draw.

aaaand counterfeited pockets which he didnt want to resteal with since he has been restealing a lot and wont have that much FE, but could well se a flop with them. given the odds and his image he could expect a big payday often enough if he connects big. i think you cant fold here. i think this small bet either means value, but more often its a 22-99 that wants to fold out Q and K high. maybe he doesnt even expect you to fold A high and decided that your range of K and Q high hands is big enough and that you'd let em go for such a small bet.

i'm generally not a fan of those "if he had bet bigger, i'd be more inclined to call." thats just against logic and can be exploited very easily since ppl will adjust and bluff cheaply and valuebet as big as they want

jm2c

i think he'd resteal with top % of his range and flat with the rest pf, since u'll eventually become fed up being 3bet to death. his range seems so polarized on river so I really wouldnt mind a call, plus u have 3perr...that accounts for somethin.

i thinking checking flop is better on that board - given a 'reasonable' preflop villian range this flop is likely have to connected with him somehow

as played i would probably call river - but I would be expecting to muck fairly quickly a lot times...as i think villian bet sizing looks like value

Thanks for the replies guys. It really was a super tough spot and i think I regret folding the river as most of you have noted.

I am looking for more ideas about the flop play. If you guys determine that his range for defending is fairly likely to have connected with most boards, what do you think he can call the flop with against the range he puts me on? I hadn't been playing aggressive at all in this tournament, mostly due to not that many chances to pick up pots. I think my range has to be decent since he had been three betting me a lot and i'm obviously smart enough to adjust to that. Do you think he might have flopped a huge hand and thought i might have connected as well?

It's basically the FT bubble. Why WOULDN'T you cbet every time??

Quagmire is a solid STT turbo player. Usually brings the goods.

pretty easy river fold if you had been playing with him long enough. I played with him for maybe 2 hours including the FT that which i won monday and im def folding riv

Im guessing this is a pretty obvious level.

Anyway I don't hate calling, that said, I would need some sort of read.
Oh and I would throw my computer out the window if he had Q9 here =]
That said I fold

No
If he expects you to have connected he'll likely bet out, right ?

On his preflop calling:
lots of pairs, lots of Ax, Kx, QconnectedX, some sc.
Since hes 3bet a lot he'll prob not do it with marginal hands in this obvious 3betting spot and more with his strong holdings since thatll pay him off. Or at least, he should.

The JTThh flop connects with pretty much everything he has except for pairs and total random **** like 5c6c. With the latter hell also check turns and you then get cbet/take it down. With hands that connect youll get raised/called: thats why check is clearly >>> cbet on this flop.

I'd check the flop. Fold the river as played.

JSchnett, I know you were in this tournament too and got fourth in it iirc. Any chance you plan on putting that video up on Cardrunners?

I like calling river.

I call river and get shown a 10 a lot... still call though


Does anyone think a push seems interesting?

Are you serious?

A push here is interesting. Probably a bit spewy at this stage, but still, interesting against a good player. He is soooo unlikely to have a J here, as on that board, if he doesn't think you're aggro enough to fire the turn w/ air, he almost has to raise on that board and hope you have QQ-AA, or Asometime, and shove to his CR.

And with our line we could easily have one, and a good hand reader would know that. our play, if raising the river would be consistant w/ the big boat. I guess you really need to know if he ALWAYS folds the T here, and if so then raise might well be good on riv

shoving river is just f'ing terrible, and he's never folding a T obv

Split pot alot, no?

dont think so. he surely has sdvalue with A high, why would he turn it into a bluff?

Fold pre w/ reads and stacks imo, check behind flop, fold river