Quote:
Originally Posted by Sinking Ship
Hero's c/r river range should be a decent flush at the least or KdX, imo, given villain's line and river sizing.
Villain could have any number of hands, KJ being likely and KdJx more specifically. Any flush, a bunch of straights, some sets or better.
Note: It's extremely difficult and frustrating to assign ranges to BOTH opponents in a 2nd-hand-of-tourney, readless, BvB battle.
Agreed with the bolded part. However, I think it offers a much more interesting discussion than if I come in here and say hey, I had the nut flush did I get the right value, or hey, I had 23o what a sick bluff I pulled. In most cases I agree 100%-in this one, I felt like this would garner the most/best discussion.
As hero in this hand, I felt like villians range was pretty polarized. On the flop, I'm going to assume he's raising any set/2pair combo based on the board and how deep we were. I also feel like he's raising a flush draw a certain percentage of the time to a)take the pot down (obv) or b) to build a pot for when he does hit his flush, becasue there is no way that SB (hero) can blow him off the hand without over betting the pot.
With that being said, I think he's a lot more likely to pot control the flop with a baby flush than he is with something that has equity on top of the flush, such as 87ss, KJss, etc, so I think when he does simply call, we can start to shade his range towards lower flushes than the nut flush draw.
On the turn, I feel his range is again highly geared towards a general set of hands. In order:a)KJ (floated flop, potentially with a diamond), b) baby flush, c) air, d)AQ/QT, and e) Nut flush. The only two pair combos that make sense for him to be flatting flop and raising turn are d, so I think we can start eliminating two pair and sets from his range.
Obviously he's raising a/b for both value and protection. He does not want to see another diamond or his hand loses value drastically (obviously). E is a little bit more interesting. He could be raising the nut flush here to build a pot so that he can get paid more on the river. However, if he's wants to build a pot, why not raise the flop and potentially get a free river card/build a pot then? Why not let me tripple barrell when I've shown no signs of slowing down? So in this case, I think that the nut flushes is a smaller percentage of his range than KJ/baby flushes. When I called, I planned on c/r 90% of rivers.
On the river, we can safely assume that he has nothing with marginal SD value (Ax, two pair, sets) and his range is pretty polarized to KJ, flushes, and air. I decided to go for a tiny c/r for a few reasons, non of which I want to say until I reveal my hand/theirs more thoughts on our respective ranges (even if it is obviously by some of my wording).
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