[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1,000 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #27020101

MP1: 12,640 (126.4 bb)
MP2: 10,279 (102.8 bb)
MP3: 16,368 (163.7 bb)
CO: 21,627 (216.3 bb)
BTN: 16,976 (169.8 bb)
SB: 12,259 (122.6 bb)
BB: 16,379 (163.8 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): 13,586 (135.9 bb)
UTG+2: 16,489 (164.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A A
Hero raises to 270, 2 folds, MP2 calls 270, 2 folds, BTN calls 270, 2 folds

Flop: (1,050) 3 5 2 (3 players)
Hero bets 500, MP2 folds, BTN calls 500

Turn: (2,050) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets 980, BTN calls 980

River: (4,010) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets 2,150, BTN raises to 7,300


Villain is a good reg and WCOOP-winner. Sofar he's been playing fairly snug with VPP 11% and PRF 7%, we have little or no history.

Assuming straights would raise sooner, I am beat by exactly one combo of deuces, one combo of treys and three combos of fives, which isn't much, but what hands is he bluffing with?
I'm pretty much representing the hand I have, does he expect me to fold an overpair on that board? Should I?

is he turning something like jacks or 4s into bluff? He is probably never balanced here since your range is QQ-KK-AA and if he doesn't have history with you, bluffing you off that range is over optimistic on his side. I would fold.

ez fold

I like c/c river. Gets him chance to bluff his missed draws. As played fold.

What missed draws? He's more likely to have 66-JJ than a missed straight draw and even 54s has enough showdown-value to check behind.