Is this play profitable?? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Is this play profitable??

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11-04-2014 , 08:41 PM

nevdog1990

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 7

Villain was playing 50/35/18
Not sure whether calling his raise on turn is profitable and once called turn must I continue on river? First proper post, the first one I posted with results like a 2+2 Noob! Any advice appreciated!

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #32370432

Hero (MP): $9.95 (99.5 bb)
CO: $11.43 (114.3 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)
SB: $33.35 (333.5 bb)
BB: $12.69 (126.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A

Hero raises to $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.90) A

(3 players)
Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55, BTN calls $0.55

Turn: ($2.55) 6

(3 players)
Hero bets $1.40, CO raises to $3.90, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($10.35) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.73 and is all-in, Hero calls $5.25 and is all-in

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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11-04-2014 , 08:49 PM

Krano21

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 81

I think so yes from the outset however it depends on previous reads and how many hands you have on him? Do you have any information on him when he plays pocket pairs? If you do and this is indicative of how the played it then maybe a fold on the turn should have been the right one. Could definitely have been repping one with no 3bet been made!

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11-04-2014 , 10:10 PM

mackeleven

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,593

Im checking the turn 3 ways. You have ah

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11-04-2014 , 10:17 PM

p0ker_n00b

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,264

I'm folding turn here. Then I make a note and then watch said fish very very carefully and make more notes...to see if he is a spewtard fish or a "I got the nuts Imma jam turn" fish.

Also mainly cause all you got is a pair on the turn vs aggression and a very highly probably river shove.

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11-04-2014 , 11:05 PM

Cole Phelps Tiger

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 104

Quote:

Originally Posted by mackeleven

Im checking the turn 3 ways. You have ah

I think this better. Unless we know BTN is a bad player then I can see some thin value here. Vs a raise I snapfold. Turn bet is already thin IMO.

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11-05-2014 , 03:10 AM

$veno

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 208

Checking Turn and giving a free card to flush draws? Nooo. There are so many hands in villains ranges to extract value from (draws, 9x, Ax). Bet Turn and c/c or c/f river, depending on the river card.

And I guess I fold to his Turn raise

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11-05-2014 , 03:20 AM

Aventon

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 824

^ problem is that you have the Ah

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11-05-2014 , 04:04 AM

Krano21

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 81

I agree with above posts but the Ah in this caseI believe is not as big as if the pot was raised preflop. It is very likely that J10s, 76s any suited connector not to mention all pocket pairs. I think even though it's hard a fold on the river is the most profitable unless you know he is over aggressive on Ax or when he has trips!

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11-05-2014 , 04:13 AM

PokerSpiv

banned

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,775

The other benefit of checking the turn is that fish folds his air/small pairs here if you bet, whereas many fish will fire a river bet with absolutely nothing if you check back the turn.

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11-05-2014 , 08:16 AM

#10

nevdog1990

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 7

I definatly dont think betting the turn here is too thin plus dont want to give free cards for him to hit his draws with K6hh for eg! Once raised I think folding the river is probably the correct decision. Thanks for your opinions guys!!!

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11-05-2014 , 08:37 AM

#11

Patje90

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,708

Quote:

Originally Posted by nevdog1990

Once raised I think folding the river is probably the correct decision.

No that is absolutely the worst decision. When you bet either fold turn or call river.

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11-05-2014 , 09:54 AM

#12

nevdog1990

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 7

Sorry I meant once he raised turn I should fold obviously when I call turn I should call river aswell!

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11-05-2014 , 09:55 AM

#13

DonkeyStars

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,018

Fold turn and I don't think it's even close. You block his bluffs and it's a multiway pot which people will bluff less at anyway. If he was going to raise you with a flush draw chances are he'd do it OTF.

This is 2 pair+ all day.

But if you call turn you have to call when the river bricks.

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11-05-2014 , 10:57 AM

#14

Rostucko

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 286

Quote:

Originally Posted by nevdog1990

Why do you make a thread if you have it all figured out how you should've played it?

As played I'm not calling turn, your hand is basically as good as A2o here.

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11-05-2014 , 11:23 AM

#15

nevdog1990

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 7

Ok thanks man I definatly dont have it all figured out! This was my first post on 2+2 me and my friend were discussing it and he told me to post on here.
Cheers for response anyway!

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11-05-2014 , 11:43 AM

#16

WeakTight.eh

Guest

Posts: n/a

I think there is pretty fat value in betting the turn here. Ax and flush draws dominate their flop flatting ranges imo. Having the Ah doesn't really change the amount of hands in this range I just described that are continuing to a turn bet.

I'd need some reads to call the turn raise. 50/35/18, I'd look him up here if that is over a reasonable sample.

I'd also size your bets slightly larger in general.

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11-05-2014 , 03:37 PM

#17

zereketh

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 689

Preflop:
I'd like a bigger raise preflop especially from early position. At least 3x. 2.5x I might use one the button since I open a higher range of cards.

Flop:
I like the bet sizing, you're gonna called by a lot of worse hands.

Turn:
I like the bet here too. Not betting here vs a 50/30 is a lot of value lost imo. After the raise I'd fold. From experience turn raises represent a lot of strength. (unless you have reasons to believe he's a huge spewtard over a huge number of hands).

This advice is being given by a losing 2NL player so take it with a grain of salt. Looking forward to more answers.

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11-05-2014 , 05:10 PM

#18

tmacTheorySSAnne

old hand

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 1,264

Please identify what the 18 is in 50/35/18 and over how many hands

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11-05-2014 , 05:17 PM

#19

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,105

He's got aggressive preflop stats, but how aggressive is he post flop? That's key information here. Without that information I suggest folding.

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11-05-2014 , 08:31 PM

#20

nevdog1990

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by universalpeace

Please identify what the 18 is in 50/35/18 and over how many hands

3 bet percentage!
His stats for post flop play are he called my c bet 53% and raised my turn c bets 50% (2/4) the initial 50/35/18 stats are over 200 hands

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11-05-2014 , 11:03 PM

#21

SCF

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by nevdog1990

3 bet percentage!
His stats for post flop play are he called my c bet 53% and raised my turn c bets 50% (2/4) the initial 50/35/18 stats are over 200 hands

Calling him down based upon this.

Wouldn't be surprised if he shows up with a non-nut flush draw or gutshot or a random 6x or 4x that he floated with and decided to turn into a bluff b/c he saw someone turn a low pair into a bluff on TV once.

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11-05-2014 , 11:03 PM

#22

WeakTight.eh

Guest

Posts: n/a

Definitely call him down then.

Turn raise reps really thin/odd value play and basically those stats mean he can have 3x as many fds/sds and probably isn't too fond of flatting draws twice.

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11-06-2014 , 12:47 AM

#23

Sepharim

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 504

I think you need to ask yourself where does this guy make mistakes? Aggressive Donks make betting mistakes, not calling mistakes. I would check the turn and have him bluff away. Leave the value betting against villains who make bad calls like Stations/ passive fish. When an Agro Donk is going to make moves like this it's better to just call him down instead of getting re-raised and making hero calls.

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