So... Brooke has been eliminated (huzzah!) -- which got me thinking "will I ever have to see / hear from her ever again?" -- and it occurred to me "I guess it's possible, but I don't really have a sense of this". I mean, sure, she could put out an album, but
apparently so did Phil Stacey, and I doubt I'll ever hear a track of his in my lifetime (and only found this article via an accidental Idol-related google).

This is probably a little early to discuss this with 4 contestants left... but hey why not.

As a reminder, here are S7's Top 24 Contestants

Personally... I don't think anyone hits it big from this season, and perhaps Cook and Archuletta carve out somewhat mediocre careers as recording artists (something around the level of Jordin Sparks, probably "worse" wrt to albums sold).

And that kid from Hollywood Week who was living out of his car will out sell all of S7 combined imo. (No I will not bet on this, but album sales props are welcome!)

-Al

FYI -- American Idol Alumni -- Album Sales

-Al

All of the alumni that have sold > 1 million (or 2 million) were recognized as great vocalists throughout their seasons. They might have had the occasional off night, but it was very obvious that they were extremely talented, at least in Idol terms, and had pretty rabid fan bases.

I kind of agree that no one this season really matches up to that profile. Perhaps Archuletta can find a good measure of success, but I struggle to think of the genre that's truly going to capture the imagination of his current base. He's just too ****ing weird imo. Cook has a lot of potential, but he seems so pretentious. Maybe he can carve out a niche just covering previously rearranged versions of hit songs. I'd probably buy it.

You think like me. I made a thread saying this just after hollywood week. Josiah would have been way more entertaining than this personality-less bunch of clowns this year.

Regarding this year's contestants - They're all decidedly mediocre for the AI aftermarket and won't sell much. Maybe *MAYBE* Archuleta's teeny fan club would translate into sales, but I don't see it.

The kid is talented -- not sure how this will translate to album sales (think he def has appeal to the indie / shoegazer / emo types), but I see him having some commercial success - all about the transparent niche.

Agreed -- I'm not sure how I'd package Cook or Archuletta (the only 2 with any real after Idol potential imo).

I'd like to hear arguments for Brooke -- cause I can sort of see it - the female singer / songwriter (e.g. Sarah McLachlan) is alive and strong commercially, but I just think she's not talented / likeable enough to ever sell say more than 300,000 albums for her debut (sort of around the McPhee level, slightly less), and then disappear.

-Al

Like a mainstream alt-rock version of Weird Al, huh? Haha although, I can sort of see Cook hitting that category hard... but I think the Idol association may hurt him with that fan base? Maybe not.

I think you're right in that it seems he has alot of commercial potential, but I think he will ultimately be difficult to market.

-Al

Which reminds me -- last year we were talking on these boards alot about Blake Lewis' commercial appeal... why did I think this kid would ever sell any albums?

-Al

Probably had something to do with my graph.

LOL William Hung outsold Guarini, Blake Lewis, Kimberly Locke, Diana DiGarmo, Tamyra Gray, Jasmine Trias, Paris Bennet, LaToya London, Mandisa and many others.

seriously, I think Brooke - with the right producer - could definitely have a decent singer/songwriter career. the key is whether or not she can come up with some decent songs.

David C. has a shot, although I'm not sure what to do with him.

David A. will either become the male version of Hannah Montana or a lesser Clay Aiken. He belongs in Branson or a theme park.

Archuleta could easily have a future career in kids' musicals or other various musical theater. Not sure he will make it in pop music but I'm sure his first album will do okay early on.

Possible that the biggest hindrance to AI sales is the next AI coming up so soon? It seems like Blake was a celebrity up until the next Idol started, then he was forgotten in favor of the next guy AI wanted to hype.

I'm curious where people are getting the demographic info from, specifically the idea that David A. is appealing primarily to 12 year olds. I would agree that he has zero charisma and has no chance of becoming a mainstream pop success, but he seems to me like he could have a career in the mold of a Michael Buble or a Clay Aiken, singing emotive/inspirational material blandly but technically proficiently. To me, that market screams middle age suburban housewife.

The main thing that I feel just about all of these people lack is stage presence. For that reason I can't really see any of them succeeding, except maybe in the mode I suggested above. I do feel like Syesha has been improving on this front, and she is also hot as hell, so maybe she could go somewhere.

You are a 12 year-old girl. You choice of guys is: receding hairline rockstar wanna-be, hippie, or cute 17 year old kid. Who do you most likely pick?

Those were 2 awesome graphs imo.



Huh, and looks like darko was not the only one pimping Jordin early on last season!

-Al

This presumes that he's actually cute - I'm unconvinced - and also that hordes of 12 year old girls are a major chunk of the voting bloc. That last bit is what I'm curious about. I'll certainly agree that it makes a lot of sense but I'm just wondering if there is data.

I think you're definitely correct. Hm, I wonder if the Idol hype machine is not optimal, or it's just not possible to continue momentum for Blake-level recording artists after their season ends (let's say the tier below "mega star" Idol contestants like Clarkson and Underwood, where they quickly shed Idol and become stars in their own right).

-Al

Not really a fair comparison.

Scruffy, intriguing, older looking rocker w/ emo haircut and doesn't work camera on slow songs(doesn't "make eyes" ala Constantine).

Good looking, dumb, laid back hippie w/ memorable 'look' with cute voice.

Cute, goofy, cheesy, awkward 17 yr old w/ amazing voice.

I'm trying to look at this objectively, cause I can't stand Castro.

Most likely? I think David A. has a small edge, but doesn't run away with this vote.

AI doesn't release data of who's voting for each contestant, nor do they necessarily have this specific information (they see votes from phone numbers and text messages). Also, I don't think that 12 year-old girls are a majority of the voting group. I would look at it more in ranges - like David A may be capturing most 12-16 year old girls but I'm sure he also captures much of the "mom" population as well. Anything anyone says though (myself included) is pure speculation.

You Give Love A Bad Name



-Al

My take which should shock no one. In order from most success post AI to least.

1. Jason Castro- Hip hop is dead and there are only a handful of good rock groups out that aren't eligible for Social Security. The Castro style of music is what is hot right now- I was watching the VH1 countdown and in a span of 30 minutes I saw a John Mayer, James Blunt, Jack Johnson and Jason Mraz video. Castro is soooo marketable with the dreadlocks and the AI run I have no doubt win or lose he'll be a star.

2. David Cook- I look at him as Daughtry-light. He doesn't have the talent of Daughtry and I don't think he will sell like Daughtry but he's going to have a solid career in Rock.

3. Brooke White- Like Castro her style is also in. I don't think she's going to be a world beater but she's someone that can easily hit 200K-400K albums every time on the folk chart. With some solid songs I think she can be another Colbie Caillat.

4. David Archuleta- I really don't know. All he can sing is boring ballads and I'm not sure if that will sell. I guess he's got a rabid fanbase but so did Blake Lewis and he didn't really sell too well at all.

I don't know about anyone else. KLC or Alaina could have a future in country music but its a wait and see. I really doubt Carly or Syesha will be heard from every again after Idol.

Updated for 2008's performance of the year:

Soul Daddy -

-Al

I am so confused by your assessment. I think we need to define our terms. What "style" music are you referring to? Male Adult Contemporary with folk-sy bent? What is so marketable about Castro? Who is his market?

Also - uhm, have you listened to a Top 40 station in the past oh, I donno, 5 years? Because the idea that "Hip Hop is dead" is fairly laughable.

-Al

Al,

C'mon. Using Top 40 as your measuring stick is pretty lol. VH1 is where all the hot acts be at.