I think Carly still has a shot to win it all. Love the 10-1.

I would like to know the evidence that they fake the bottom 3. I've followed the argument for years and haven't seen anything compelling. There are cases where Ryan uses weasel-words, but those are obvious and can't be counted.

This thread got out of control! Also thanks Imstillben for insulting my analysis while contributing nothing and not explaining why I'm wrong.

I don't know if I believe the show is rigged or not. I remember the discussion about it last year; interesting thread but didn't come to anything conclusive.

FWIW I wasn't shocked that Carly was in the (announced) b3 the week before based on Simon's comments, nor was I surprised that she was NOT in the (announced) b3 this week based on the rally effect, where a contestant in the b3 1 week is usually safe the next. So I have no reason to believe it's rigged based on the results I've seen, even if it is.

Carly is now 11.5-1 at WSEX. Her sell price of 6 is begging for me to hold on a while longer, but does she really have a legit shot at rebounding? I think so.

I'm biased because of my position, of course, but I still believe she has the potential to outlast any girl in this field. If Carly even squeezes into the final4 she will have been profitable, and we've only gotten a glimpse of her potential yet she's still the 3rd highest ranked contestant on wsex.

I have not bought or sold any positions (except a small recent buy on Syesha) so I am still holding on to my Carly buys and Archuletta shorts from the day the markets opened. I do have a substantial number of LL bets out that somewhat compensate for this though, and I am ready to take Carly to the final4.