I can't really wrap my head around the math at the moment, but here are my thoughts on the FFA win rate thing

If everyone in the game stands an equal chance of getting in the top 3, you have a 3/30 chance to place 1-3, or 10% (same probability as if you rolled a 30-sided dice and needed the numbers 1-3 to come up). That was my starting point, but I know the statistics get a lot more complicated then that. My instinct tells me that if you are marginally good at this game, then your chance of placing in the top 3 is going to be pretty high, higher then you probably think.

I was looking at the maps that goofy just posted in the stickied thread and wanted to specifically look at the SubBase sabotage map because I rapepwnd that game the first time we played it, which I got a kick out of. I don't see a Sabotage thread so I'll just post it here.

I noticed the map was wrong. I have fixed it, but added my sabotage route.

It's showing the red bomb site where the A flag is at in Domination. My bright green dot is where it actually is in the game, with the light blue as my route, which goes up the ladder to the rooftop and jump down on the bomb.

Are you saying you're playing against 29 other people? It is a lot less than that, I don't even know for sure, isn't it? So you're odds, in an equal chance, would be higher.

**I'm probably wrong and making myself look stupid.

Nope I'm the idiot . I got the number of kills you need confused with the number of players

I know its 8-12 people in a TDM game, and iirc its that same number in FFA games. For simplicities sake, lets say its 10 people in an FFA game (reasonable). So if you assume you are 3/10 to place in the top 3, assuming everyone has an equal chance to win, than you're looking at a 30% chance at being in the top 3 every game. Give yourself a slight edge and that number creeps up over 50% pretty quick. Give yourself a bigger edge and you should be placing first a fair amount of the time as well.

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And not to be a huge nit but I think the path you drew on your sub-base map is a little off. The blue line shows you climbing up the latter to get onto the warehouse roof, but then it shows you going through the impassible chain-link fence up there.

See this is why I don't care too much for the math about this game, to solve the problems you have to make too many poor general assumptions like this one (not a shot at you gateswi). How can you predict the average competency of 11 random players?

ya this, its a pointless exercise

I think I was wrong about what a good win % is in ffa any way, because today I tried playing with the ump (like I said been using the sniper for last 5k or so kills) and I won 23 out of 30, placing in the top 3 28/30, average kd over that 30 games was 1.8. This was not in the same lobby, it was over like 8 or 9 lobbys and I know I wasnt running good any way. Yes it is easier than I thought using marathon/ump silenced, I put my kill streaks as 3-5-7 or hardline 5-7-9, with the hardline set up I can average a pavelow at least once a match, and that helps.

So yeah it is harder than I originally thought for the other players to run good and Id say a good player should aim for 65% win % with top 3 virtually all the time. But I dont think 95% is possible. Its about getting kills fast and you can only go so for with that. I can regularly go 1 minute without finding anyone and that with marathon. But yeah I didnt realize ffa was as soft as it is, 70% of the players are usually on prestige 2 or below.

Im going to keep sniping ffa's anyway for practice and fun. Like I said I can prob win 1 in 4 sniping, the problem is not get killed, its that I cant get kills fast enough. Any tips? I dont camp at all, al though I obv not moving as if I have a sub. I try and stay back because thats the advantage of a sniper but I know if you do that too much you wont find anyone that often.

**** just almost gone 34-0 on tdm until in the last 15 seconds (and I decided to not risk it and just stay in one of the buildings on highrise) a bloody rpg gets me.

Don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but one thing I discovered recently (at least on 360) is your claymores last until you respawn, so if you watch the killcam for a couple seconds, you can get an afterlife kill way more often if you have claymores near where you died.

Also, watch the killcam whenever an AC130 or chopper gunner gets you cause you can sometimes see the green cross hairs showing where the operator is hiding.

Glad someone else has picked up on the claymore thing.I think I've subconsiously delayed a second or two for a while now to try and get those afterlife kills! I wasn't sure if it was just a coincedence or not.

I've also noticed when I set my first claymore it seems to set another one off somewhere on the map.Not useful at all but a bit odd!

I do the after life thing pretty often.

That is weird. I know with scavenger pro you can only have 2 claymores set at once. Once you set the third, your first claymore blows up.

The assumption that all players have an equal chance to win was just to get a rough idea. I agree though, this same kind of problem (trying to come up with data that is pretty arbitrary) comes up in the microstakes NL forum all the time (e.g. 'how many players at 25NL actually stack off JJ pre?' )

(Pro) Tip

Try using a blinged LMG w/ grip+thermal on Wasteland. I've been using the M240 with a PP2k silencer+ext mags. The thermal really makes a huge difference on wasteland. You'd be surprised how well you can do with this. If I have the patience to grind it out, I think RPD w/ grip+thermal would be better since its a 2-shot instead of 3-shot kill with SP, and you want to have to land as few bullets as possible w/ the thermal.

when I was a first starting I used to put up some huge scores with FAL + Thermal + Silencer on wasteland (Bling, CB, Whatever) just laying prone in the grass with an eye on a Dom flag.

Yeah. I always try to convince myself that thermal w/ the FAL is kick-ass, then I unlock it and use it a few times (mostly on wasteland, underpass, other dark maps) and realize its about as 'meh' as the last time I tried it.

I don't think I would ever use it now, but back when I was first starting and wasn't very good it was a life saver. It's probably the best thermal with CB + silencer on, and I needed all three of those when I was a fish. I didn't know the maps well enough to run and gun, I couldn't really pick out targets that well without thermal, and my aim wasn't good enough to win 1v1s a lot, so the only way to not go 5-25 was to camp. I'd find a tall spot of grass, lie down and go 10-1.

Would you guys but an acog on the FAL? I was messing with it yesterday and I hate it up close but it does seem like it would be awesome to snipe with.

If you want to ACOG something why not ACOG the M21 EBR? I haven't tried it but I heard that's really nice. FAL with bling, holo and silencer is just too strong to be using an ACOG on it.

Ill have to try that once I get it unlocked. I havent used any other sniper rifle then the intervention and barret for a long long time.

ACOG utility in order of effectiveness:
1. ACR
2. (intentionally blank)
3. M4
4. Famas
5. M21
6. M16
7. Scar
8. FAL
9. M240
10. Barrett

Beyond this it is way too big of a hassle to even attempt

the ACOG is pretty good on the ump in touch football iyam

I hit level 70 on my 5th prestige. I'm 315 kills into the AK47, and so far I have to be honest, I'm a little disappointed! I expected a lot more tbh. Maybe I need to get used to it more... but it seems to me that if its not completely even with the Tar-21 then it might even be a little worse. I don't think the iron-sights are that great at all, the upward kick makes it so damn hard to get quick long range kills.

This isn't to say the AK is bad though, I've had my moments of ownage w/ it too where I'm like 'wow I'm never prestiging again'. Anyone have tips for AK use? I've been using FMJ and plan to unlock ext. mags eventually.

I'm seriously considering stopping prestiging but I get this feeling that eventually I will end up doing it, and then feel like an idiot for sitting at level 70 for so long on 5th prestige.

I haven't experimented at all w/ this tbh

The ACOG on the TAR is by no means good, but it's kind of fun for the 20 kills it takes to unlock the Thermal. Not like I'm going to use the Thermal at all, but I like completing the Mastery challenge on the TAR every prestige once I've unlocked everything important and start to get bored.

OTOH, I like the MARS sites on the TAR almost as much as the Holo, so it might just be me.