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08-07-2015 , 06:22 PM


No guarantee that this is accurate. This was all I could find.
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08-07-2015 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fallen Hero
how can you say this after watching dota for years, and specially after watching this tournament.
I realize you're exaggerating for the sake of making a point, but secret weren't winning 95% of their games, not online and not on lan. EG was close (and better at DAC), VG was arguably better before they went off the rails, C9 was very good at times, etc.

They were not this unstoppable force that you're making them seem like, they were "just" the best team in the world for a few months
in every sport people ridiculizing bookies lines are always the same people that the bookies want to bet.

Its no coincidence, ive watched every game of every major tournaments this year and even I dont think i have much of an edge on sportsbetting sites.

Maybe the real line was closer to 45% than 50%.

It certainly wasnt lower than at least 40%. Half the teams were near drawing dead. Teams like navi and mvp.

And yes, CDEC was one of those teams that probably didnt even have 2% of winning this tournament.

Which is what makes this incredible and that nobody in their right mind gave them a shot EVEN at only top 3.

This is pretty amazing and unheard of.


ps: those odds were before cdec and mvp phoenix qualified in the wildcard so cant take cdec/phoenix/vega/archon odds

If you want an example of power rankings before the tournament started this one is pretty good

http://www.liquiddota.com/forum/ti5/...rnational-2015

Keep in mind that people were pretty mad that newbee were invited (only cause they were last years champion), and cdec are barely above them). Nobody thought anyone bottom 4 had ANY shot at winning this. Ehome were actually respected.
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08-07-2015 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Team Secret -103 / 1.97
Evil Geniuses +421 / 5.21
Vici Gaming +791 / 8.91
Virtus Pro +1901 / 20.01
LGD GAming +1251 / 13.51
Cloud 9 +1671 / 17.71
Invictus GAming +1415 / 15.15
Empire +1949 / 20.49
Natus Vincere +3781 / 38.81
EHOME +5097 / 51.97
CDEC +4235 / 43.35
Newbee +8655 / 87.55
Fnatic +12543 / 126.43
MVP Hot6 +37903 / 380.03
Complexity +88465 885.65
MVP Phoenix +50755 / 508.55
42.5-1
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08-07-2015 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwax13
Re: Secret Odds

Anyone that watches competitive DOTA regularly would have to say that coming into TI5, they were the most dominant team ever. They were winning everything in pretty convincing fashion. If you don't understand how books, lines and public perception works, then I think you're on the wrong forum.

CDEC being top 2 is mind boggling, and I don't even know what I believe anymore in regards to DOTA.
checkout Na'Vi between TI2 and TI3, that's an insane resumé. But yeah, agreed in terms of public perception influencing lines in tiny markets, which is my entire point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirbynator
in every sport people ridiculizing bookies lines are always the same people that the bookies want to bet.
I'm not ridiculing the bookies, I said esports betting markets are generally a joke, which they are, because they're tiny markets with virtually no intelligent money, so the bookies take advantage.
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08-07-2015 , 06:28 PM
i'd be interested in seeing

a) how much you have to bet on a dota2 game to move a line aggressively
b) how much you have to bet on a dota2 futures price to move it
c) what kind of people are getting hired to set the opening dota2 lines
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08-07-2015 , 06:29 PM
IMO if you want EG to be in the Grand finals, you should be cheering for VG in this game. EG have had VG by the balls for quite a long time. LGD might be a tougher match-up for EG.
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08-07-2015 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
i'd be interested in seeing

a) how much you have to bet on a dota2 game to move a line aggressively
I wish I could bet on pinnacle but the bloody government has banned online betting in my country.

I think I recall the max bet during the TI2 or TI4 times to be a $100. Not sure whether they still have a cap now.
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08-07-2015 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackchilli
I wish I could bet on pinnacle but the bloody government has banned online betting in my country.

I think I recall the max bet during the TI2 or TI4 times to be a $100. Not sure whether they still have a cap now.
lol had I known this I wouldn't have bothered with any other argument
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08-07-2015 , 06:37 PM
༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ VG, draft a surprise pick please
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08-07-2015 , 06:38 PM
im surprised that the cap for TI5 pinny betting is only $100, its not like you're going to get corrupt players when the prizes are this huge

either that or they just dont have enough faith in their bookmakers

like i noticed during the tournament that G2 lines wouldn't move that hard even after G1 results (maybe not surprising?)... and games were available to bet on even as the draft was going (I was spectating the market being in the USA so maybe this part ends up not being correct)
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08-07-2015 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fallen Hero
lol had I known this I wouldn't have bothered with any other argument
I remember looking at the odds on pinnacle and telling myself I'd be a millionaire. Then I tried to place a bet and found out that the cap was a $100 and I thought wtf is this nonsense.

Still made a profit though!
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08-07-2015 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
im surprised that the cap for TI5 pinny betting is only $100, its not like you're going to get corrupt players when the prizes are this huge

either that or they just dont have enough faith in their bookmakers
The cap was either for TI2 or TI4 (honestly can't remember). I don't know what it is now as I can't even access the website. I wouldn't be surprised if they increased the cap significantly.
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08-07-2015 , 06:42 PM
you can immediately re-bet for the maximum on pinnacle, but the lines will be altered due to your previous bet

no clue what the max bet was
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08-07-2015 , 06:43 PM
LMAO THAT SIGN


WTF 10 MERLINIS
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08-07-2015 , 06:43 PM
think the key to beating CDEC will be running a hero that alters the normal flow of a game like techies/brood/wisp or maybe some kind of global strat like spectre+AA
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08-07-2015 , 06:43 PM
go VG? i guess o.O

Quote:
Originally Posted by PoppaTMan
think the key to beating CDEC will be running a hero that alters the normal flow of a game like techies/brood/wisp or maybe some kind of global strat like spectre+AA
rip techies first phase ban


Also I think EG had the perfect draft and perfect game in game 1.

Then that song+requiem blunder happened, with no buyback, lol. Brutal.
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08-07-2015 , 06:45 PM
Why do teams keep picking razor when his winrate is poopy? VG's draft doesn't look good here.
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08-07-2015 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirbynator
go VG? i guess o.O



rip techies first phase ban


Also I think EG had the perfect draft and perfect game in game 1.

Then that song+requiem blunder happened, with no buyback, lol. Brutal.
yeah, I actually agree with the G1 draft

except the song should probably have been used purely for disengage rather than setup

suddenly 5v5 in dire jungle, wtf
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08-07-2015 , 06:51 PM
THEY CAME FROM....

BEHIND!
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08-07-2015 , 06:57 PM
ICEX3 MLG NOSCOPE
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08-07-2015 , 06:57 PM
TI5 has delivered insane games over and over again. Incredible!
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08-07-2015 , 06:59 PM
yeah for reals

like 80% of the games were close and good, which is insane.

I remember when watching dota was basically 3 games out of 4 stomps one way, with a lot of boring heroes among them.
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08-07-2015 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoppaTMan
ICEX3 MLG NOSCOPE
He was the champ at this when he used to play invoker. He did a sick one vs VP in the last TI.
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08-07-2015 , 07:04 PM
༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ Double sentries at the same spot provide double the vision.

I still don't like QOP carries though
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08-07-2015 , 07:05 PM
wow vg

gogogo
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