Torchin' or scorchin' ?




BTN: 173 BB
SB: 386.5 BB
BB: 151.5 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB
Hero (MP): 107.5 BB
CO: 84 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 9

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 9 BB, SB calls 8.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (28 BB, 3 players) K 6 7
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 7 BB, fold, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn: (42 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 20.5 BB, Hero raises to 91.5 BB and is all-in

It's probably alright in theory...

But I think actual villains are way more polarized here than GTO. I wouldn't count on them folding Kx+ to a jam, and I believe that is most villains' only value range. We may even be called by Ah5h?


But maybe you can somehow argue that villain has a big bluffing range here that we fold out to make the play profitable with our 3 outs to the nuts.

Vilain is reping AK, KK, maybe KQ. I don't think AA is betting this small OTF here.

I don't really mind puting max pressure on AK sometimes, but I would prefer doing it with a FD. T9s feels way too loose

i would call that if i had ak.

^^yeah I definitely wasn't expecting better kings to fold, maaaaaybe some KQ. More realistically KJ/KT and bad FDs

Sizings were the main trigger. Kind of suggest either a thinking player or someone who can at least read the board. Which is one of my prereqs for attempting to bluff at the micros these days plus the runout is obviously scorching hell for the 3bettor.

Pros:

• don't get here very often. Low freq call for me pre. Thus low freq bluff we only launch vs those kind of bet sizing indicators on very specific runouts
• Besides FDs, not sure we have better bluffs? Pairs want to call - maybe 88 is better dunno
• Block Str8s
• Have a sizable nut advantage on turn/ extending b range to non FD hands seems reasonable
• Some outs when called
• We play value this way

Cons:

• Will get called a reasonable %, too often? dunno
• Blocking TT/99 isn't amazing and while I doubt he bets those on the turn we much rather he has KT
• One of our outs is counterfeit
• It's the bloody micros

Solver doesn't like it. But then it mostly donks the turn and i'm not at that level so **** gto

Don't go 3x preflop. Not 100% sure if this call is okay, going to ask some better players.

Turn probably just fold, I think it's okay if the turn is a Tx/9x though.

Fold pre (not even a pure open), call flop (don't hate fold with no BDFD but guess you have to call one). Fold turn

My impression that you're bluffing too much if you're doing this with T9, and I think you should fold to the 3b.

Okay Ceres preflop is good with the fish, wanted to check on that one.

Let's be realistic here. Is villain ever bet folding a king on the turn? This seems like a suicidal place to bluff in general after villain bet the flop multiway. I kind of suspect a king doesn't get folded. If he isn't folding a king, you would have to give him tons of AQo, AJo type hands before even comes close to folding enough even when you have a high equity bluff. Or you have to exclude a fair amount of his value hands from taking this line a good portion of the time. I just don't see it with a low equity bluff like Tc9c.

You have something like 9% equity when called with T9. You're raising a little less than pot, but the fact that villain already bet half pot and you are raising into that means your bluff has to work so much more often. With 9% equity, you need to get a fold 64% of the time. Compare that to Th9h that has about 26% equity and only needs to get a fold 48% of the time. Ah4h needs even less fold equity, but it blocks some folds and bluffs. Either way, you really have to assume either villain isn't taking this line with a lot of his value and is actually checking some Kx or he is really aggressive with his bluffs. Hands like AQo and AJo might not even 3bet pure pre, and do we think he is always barreling those hands on the turn, always bluffing a 3 way flop?

At any rate, I am skeptical that this is going to be a profitable spot to bluff at all, but I think having some sort of flush draw at a minimum and preferably at least a gutshot makes for better bluff candidates since they don't need to generate folds as often to work. At the same time, I don't think we are going to have tons of value hands here either that didn't raise flop, and we can trap them some of the time, so even in theory it's not like we need a ton of bluffs anyways.

Cheers. aner0 said something similar a while back so i've started mixing them in more in this spot which happens often enough down here. Trouble is when fishie folds we're trying to max vs the unknown IP and that's prob where i'm getting into trouble most

(RE 3x: I know. Still unsold that reducing FE and increasing pot size v fish is too insignificant to change @ 2-10nlz tho, unless you know otherwise. plus kinda good if I get a fish tag v the occasional ok reg)

I think that's a fair assessment. Reason I posted is mainly because it worked but I wasn't super sold. Concur with thread prob too loose but I still think there might be something in the turn bet sizing that just screams F.E.A.R.


Like even if he bets 1/3 I think I give him more credit and don't bluff. But just under 1/2 is so weird. Like he's fiddling with a bet sizer and can't choose either way. Solver mostly sizes up and you've got to think most humans would go 60%+ with AK+

I think it boils down to that. You may counter and say ah yes but he aint folding KQ, and you are probably right. So I'm not saying I'm right either. It worked this time but if your maths is solid (64% FE) and I knew that figure at the time I probably wouldn't have fired no

I would really like to know what he had. if you're out there random person. what bet/SNAPfolds 45???

Considering opp is reg, but with no stats, this is fine push
If he has good reg stats, this push would be better

hearts draw or AQ or T9.

You may be right on the sizing exploit, it's hard to say.

But yeah, if nothing else, it is helpful to work out the math on how much you need villain to fold. It is easy to remember a pot sized bet need folds 50% of the time with 0 equity, but I have to remind myself that number goes up if you're raising a bet as opposed to leading.