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Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But...

03-25-2008 , 04:47 AM
UTG is 27/10/3.5 unknown TAG ish player, seems okay. CO is regular sorta-TAG who's like 18/15 but who has LAGtard tendencies and spews here and there making dumb aggro raises and hero calls. BB reraiser is a 30/3 for whats its worth.

I never fold sets but justify how the **** I can call here?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($576.65)
CO ($408.30)
BTN ($776.40)
Hero ($1035.60)
BB ($324.70)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is SB 2 2
UTG raises to $14, CO calls $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, BB raises to $37, UTG calls $23, CO calls $23, Hero calls $23

Flop: T J 2 ($148, 4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4, UTG calls $4, CO raises to $100, Hero calls $100, BB folds, UTG goes all-in $535.65, CO goes all-in $271.3, $435.65 to Hero ($898.6)?
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 04:53 AM
put CO on JT and utg on a poorly played AA and call ldo
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 05:00 AM
yeah, this is a sick sick fold. But its a fold imo.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 05:06 AM
UTG (27/10/3,5) is not a TAG player, its somewhat fishy stats. I think he might take this line with an overpair.

CO can have J and maybe QK, and you are getting 1:2:

I call
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 05:11 AM
You usually call 22 PF to 4 or 5bets like that to more than 1/10th of villain's stack??

Flop play is atrocious by almost all parties. 4 players to the flop, you flopped a set, why just check and rely on everyone to build the pot for you?? They don't have huge laggy stats, nobody suspects you flopped a set, just donk this flop 2/3-pot to misrep and take it from there. Someone with an overpair or big drawing hand will put you all in everytime and it's a fistpump call. Your total passiveness in checking, then calling with a set, created the whole problem here.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 05:12 AM
Seems like UTG has AA or maybe AK. CO is the scary one. I dont think an 18/15 would ever lead here with KQ, so its like JJ, TT, JTs and thats about it.

Board: 2d Jc Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.550% 25.55% 00.00% 20534 0.00 { 2c2s }
Hand 1: 12.365% 12.35% 00.02% 9924 13.50 { AA, AKs }
Hand 2: 62.085% 62.07% 00.02% 49882 13.50 { JJ-TT, KhQh, JTs }

1059 in the pot. 436 to call. 1495 total pot. You need 30 pct equity to breakeven on a call. UTG could also show up with a set as well, and I highly doubt a coldcalling 18/15 ever shows up with worse than JTs here. I put one combo of KQs, but I don't even think it should be there. Tough fold in real time, put easy on paper. However, if you think CO would raise KQs here like this 100 pct and make this play, adding all combos of that makes our equity against the new ranges 39pct and you can call, so it really all comes down to your read on CO, but I think its probably a fold still.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

476,784 games 0.016 secs 29,799,000 games/sec

Board: 2h Td Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.352% 28.35% 00.00% 135180 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 26.659% 25.78% 00.88% 122895 4212.00 { AA, JJ-TT, KQs, JTs }
Hand 2: 44.988% 44.10% 00.88% 210285 4212.00 { JJ-TT, KQs, JTs }

Even giving both players a very wide range here, it looks like a fold.

Last edited by krmont22; 03-25-2008 at 05:32 AM.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 05:25 AM
I have CO on TJ and UTG on TTT,JJJ,KQ. You have 48% equity.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:19 AM
you are toast here, fold.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:24 AM
I would never fold this at 2/4

ever
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:25 AM
this is so gross! its easy to say fold looking at it on a forum, but at the table, i don't know if i can make this fold (and it is a fold you should make). But I would probably say **** it and call, even if im beat i got out
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:28 AM
wtf, this is a fistpump call.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:29 AM
Not a great spot, but I dont think u can fold.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:37 AM
I can't imagine folding this against a 27/10 and an 18/15, especially when the latter is described as having spewy tendencies. That tiny pf 3bet juices the pot and keeps utg's and co's ranges super wide...they never fold JT(o)/KQ(o)/98(o)/Q9(o) etc to that tiny raise.

I disagree with krmont's definition of "very wide." His last range isn't nearly wide enough. Throw in a couple offsuit combos of stuff like KQ or JT, maybe the occasional Q9s or 98s that people can't get rid of because OMG OESD, and you get well over the 30% equity needed to call here. Hell, you'll even see stuff like AJ getting it in here because he wants to make someone pay to hit a straight or something.

I'm starting to think this is not only a call, but a fistpump call.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:39 AM
if your fistpumping here thats extremely spewy. read the hand and focus on utg, he has TT, JJ, or JT here...and i think it's heavily weighted toward the sets since i think he only ever shows up with suited JT here and usually pumps it up at the first oppertunity on the flop when the pfrr basically gives up on the pot
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:48 AM
Revising range to only include suited TJ and suited KQ along with the sets then you're equity is still 40%
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:50 AM
18/15's are not coldcalling offsuit JT,89,Q9 and probably not raising this flop with bad straight draws.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:58 AM
no way i fold this. theres a chunky pot going down here fella
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 06:59 AM
do you think an 18/15 is coldcalling more often with JT of JJ/TT?
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 07:01 AM
I think they coldcall an UTG raise with TT-JJ a lot more than JTs as well.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 07:06 AM
If it was monotone I'd fold.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 07:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by krmont22
I think they coldcall an UTG raise with TT-JJ a lot more than JTs as well.
i was always under the impression that an 18/15 will 3b TT/JJ in position, especially versus a weak player.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 07:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by clarkatroid
no way i fold this. theres a chunky pot going down here fella
made me lol for some reason.


yeh i also am not folding this. Other hands other than sets are in villans ranges. ul though
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 08:19 AM
Why is everyone concentrating on CO, it's UTG that has a bigger stack, and also shows up with a set more often here
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 09:35 AM
i'm gonna be a fish and put them both one one hand and call.

utg - KQ
CO - JTs

i just can't give utg credit for a set after he just called the minbet on the flop then went big. and as for CO unfortunately i think his range is only JJ, TT, JTs and like some said not necessarily JTs all the time either. does that make this a call?
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote
03-25-2008 , 10:20 AM
If you had 10J this might be close. As it is, easy call. I'm amazed how many people advocate a fold.
Woah, I Never Fold Sets, But... Quote

      
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