What to do when flush gets there on the river? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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What to do when flush gets there on the river?

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02-20-2021 , 10:21 AM

newguyhere

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Ignition - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $15.39
Hero (BTN): $12.79
SB: $4.07

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A

Hero raises to $0.25, fold, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.55, 2 players) 6

BB checks, Hero bets $0.19, BB calls $0.19

Turn: ($0.93, 2 players) A

BB checks, Hero bets $1.49, BB calls $1.49

River: ($3.91, 2 players) K

BB checks, Hero

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02-20-2021 , 10:50 AM

moxterite

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How many of the worse 2-pair hands do you think BB is raising preflop? (A6, A5, possible KQ, more unlikely slowplayed 65). He can just be floating flop with Ax as well. I'm not slowing down here just because the front door flush came in. Sizing to allow a bet-fold though

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02-20-2021 , 12:36 PM

bailashtoreth

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I'm still betting, but not large. Not because i'm scared of getting raised, but bc I want v to call with his 1p hands.

Edit: I don't think this is a range bet flop. I'd bet bigger.

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02-20-2021 , 12:47 PM

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bailashtoreth

Edit: I don't think this is a range bet flop. I'd bet bigger.

I wouldn't range bet here. Just went with a smaller sizing since BB still has all 66-55 and every 2pr combo.

I could be thinking about that in the wrong way though.

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02-20-2021 , 12:51 PM

newguyhere

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As far as betting the river, I assume it's a bet/fold, because most players aren't going to XR the river without a flush.

But the issue I have is that Ignition players are totally capable of raising the river with worse hands for value, because they tend to overplay their hands.

So knowing how pool plays, is it still a bet/fold or do we lean more towards a bet/call?

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02-20-2021 , 01:17 PM

whitemares

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Pretty sure you want to check (at least most of the time) on this river specifically, particularly without the A

What to do when flush gets there on the river?

Think about all of the flushes, straights, and sets you'll have in this spot. Betting ranges tend to shrink dramatically on flush cards, and I'd have to imagine that effect is magnified when the straight comes in simultaneously

Maybe exploitatively you can do some bet/folding since micro ignition is mostly passive fish. I don't think you're gonna get value raised by worse all that often

Last edited by whitemares; 02-20-2021 at 01:43 PM.

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02-20-2021 , 04:35 PM

ionutd

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mid sized bet with a diamond, x/ w/o
if he's a bit of a station ye bet all 2p but I don't imagine the ev is that much higher than checking, I don't think you take the chance vs unknown

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02-20-2021 , 04:43 PM

Crab Cakes

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You overbet the turn cause you have a big nut advantage and then the river card completely changes who holds the nuts now, in this scenario we want to go more linear instead of continuing to polarize, I’d go about 1/2 pot here. I like what is ionutd said, check without diamond, bet with one, great way to keep frequency’s in line.

That being said this is the micros and if you think he’s a weak player who never bluff raises here and will call with all his 2 pair then bet folding this hand is definitely more EV than checking back. Just don’t bet and talk yourself into calling a raise lol.

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02-20-2021 , 04:49 PM

ionutd

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it's not because we need to regulate the freq of our value betting range otr (either a combo is a vbet or it is not, we just regulate the freq of our bluffs based on how many combos of value we have) , it's just that the bet doesn't really get called by more than 50% worse + we run the risk of getting xr and then he gets to make more money than he should

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02-20-2021 , 05:22 PM

#10

bailashtoreth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

I wouldn't range bet here. Just went with a smaller sizing since BB still has all 66-55 and every 2pr combo.

I could be thinking about that in the wrong way though.

You bet small when v range does not connect with flop bc they fold to a bigger bet. You defend against v having a strong range by betting less often.

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02-20-2021 , 05:54 PM

#11

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bailashtoreth

You bet small when v range does not connect with flop bc they fold to a bigger bet. You defend against v having a strong range by betting less often.

I thought when their range connects, we should bet smaller/less frequently, since they can XR us more often.

When their range doesn't connect, then we have free reign on the sizing and can bet more frequently. I think most just go with a smaller size since it lets you bluff more.

.
.
.
.

This is what I'm getting for the flop after giving IP 2 sizes to choose from (33 and 75).

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02-20-2021 , 06:51 PM

#12

Zuko

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that bb defend range tho

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02-20-2021 , 07:02 PM

#13

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuko

that bb defend range tho

MPT ranges

On ignition, players might be defending wider.

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02-20-2021 , 08:25 PM

#14

bailashtoreth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

But are you going to bet 1/3p 62%, 75%p 17.5%, and x the rest? I'd guess not, and if not, that sim means nothing.

Instead, I'd do 2 different sims, 1 with x or bet small, the other with x or bet big, and compare the ev to each other, and also compare them to the sim you already ran.

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02-20-2021 , 10:34 PM

#15

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bailashtoreth

Instead, I'd do 2 different sims, 1 with x or bet small, the other with x or bet big, and compare the ev to each other, and also compare them to the sim you already ran.

The first screenshot is check or bet small, and the second is check or bet big.

Solver bets more often with the smaller sizing. No surprise there.

EV of smaller sizing is 5.67
EV of larger sizing is 5.52

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02-20-2021 , 11:32 PM

#16

bailashtoreth

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Am I oblivious? Where's the ev of the entire tree?

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02-20-2021 , 11:35 PM

#17

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bailashtoreth

Am I oblivious? Where's the ev of the entire tree?

Oops. I'm an idiot. I locked in AQ

I'll redo it in a bit.

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02-20-2021 , 11:47 PM

#18

newguyhere

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EV of large sizing is 3.6 and small is 3.31

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02-21-2021 , 02:16 AM

#19

bailashtoreth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

Oops. I'm an idiot. I locked in AQ

I'll redo it in a bit.

Lol. I thought i was the idiot. I was looking all over the screenshot trying to find it.

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02-21-2021 , 02:34 AM

#20

bailashtoreth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

EV of large sizing is 3.6 and small is 3.31

This is a great illustration that the best ev play of a particular hand is not necessarily the best ev play of the entire range.

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02-21-2021 , 06:49 AM

#21

Zuko

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Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

EV of large sizing is 3.6 and small is 3.31

and no one thinks there is something wrong with that? having a 9% ev decrease does not ring a bell?

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02-21-2021 , 09:28 AM

#22

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuko

and no one thinks there is something wrong with that? having a 9% ev decrease does not ring a bell?

Sorry I'm not sure I understand. Is there something wrong with the difference in EV?

I thought that was the point of running 2 sims. To see which size is the highest EV

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02-21-2021 , 09:38 AM

#23

Zuko

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that amount of ev difference is not a thing.

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02-21-2021 , 10:04 AM

#24

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuko

that amount of ev difference is not a thing.

Not a thing as in it shouldn't happen (I solved incorrectly).

or

Not a thing as in it's negligible, and it doesn't matter what sizing I choose to bet on this flop?

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02-21-2021 , 10:12 AM

#25

Zuko

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Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

Not a thing as in it shouldn't happen (I solved incorrectly).

or

Not a thing as in it's negligible, and it doesn't matter what sizing I choose to bet on this flop?

9% is not negligible. but it should be negligible. if the ev for small would be 3.31 the difference to big should be mabye 3.30 or 3.32... in that ballpark.

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