What could villain be holding on the river? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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What could villain be holding on the river?

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02-15-2009 , 01:50 AM

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

(There is a HEM bug with the HH. Should be ok for the next beta release.)

Villain is 23/17/3bet8%/300hands. Never squeezed. Since it is a multi way pot on the flop, we put villain on either a draw or somekind of pair?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $6(BB) Replayer
SB ($591)
BB ($241)
UTG ($701)
Hero ($576)
BTN ($410)

Dealt to Hero Q

Hero raises to $21, BTN calls $21, SB calls $21, fold, fold,

FLOP ($72) Q

Hero bets $48, BTN folds, SB calls $48,

TURN ($168) Q

check, check,

RIVER ($168) Q

check, SB bets $90, Hero ?

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02-15-2009 , 01:58 AM

cheer

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,375

fold

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02-15-2009 , 02:04 AM

GuiGui_88

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,660

ill go for TT or most likely QxXd

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02-15-2009 , 04:55 AM

Zanka

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 204

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02-15-2009 , 11:50 AM

S'c'ow'l

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 100

Yeah the flush draw on the flop comes in on turn so that seems pretty likely, or a decent Q that has decided Hero doesn't have the flush. Flop FD coming in on turn seems plausible though, especially if he thought delaying a bet until the end might convince you he did not hold diamonds. Just my thoughts.

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02-15-2009 , 05:23 PM

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

Wouldnt villain rather check a Q on the river for pot control?
And wouldnt rather Villain value bet a flush on the turn?

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02-15-2009 , 07:08 PM

cheer

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,375

sorry. i should have given more input then "fold." He calls in a multi-way pot OOP and the only conceivable draw hits on the turn. he has QT+ 99% of the time. the other one % is Qx which you are chopping

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02-15-2009 , 10:51 PM

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

My thought process was like described in my previous post.
1) Villain would/should check a Q on the river.
2) And villain would bet a weak flush on the turn.

So less hands to put on villain. And it is was only 3way action on a ragged flop. I called and he showed 43s with no flush draw.

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02-15-2009 , 11:22 PM

meatyfish

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 486

Nobody bets this turn? We check turn & river & fold to a bet? Are we this nitty?

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02-15-2009 , 11:36 PM

#10

cheer

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by allwind

1) y?
2) y?

43s is at the absolute bottom of his range so I would say you got lucky... Unless he does this with JJ/99 sometimes but he prob wouldn't be river so yeah. his range that bets river > Q9

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02-16-2009 , 12:57 AM

#11

tvta

banned

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 2,460

Quote:

Originally Posted by meatyfish

Nobody bets this turn? We check turn & river & fold to a bet? Are we this nitty?

why is checking turn so bad?

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