Villain here runs around 19/15 ish and is notoriously pretty nitty. He doesn't vbet particularly well, doesn't 4bet very often, goes to showdown as much as a nit should. Not too much relevant history, and his style simply is not all that remarkable. Earlier in the session, villain saw me punt 200bb's to jiggaman with KK on an Ahi board in a 5bet pot pre to his A6o. My image should still appear untilted/solid.


Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $2421.00
CO: $1200.00
Hero (BTN): $1191.00
SB: $966.90
BB: $1570.60

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is BTN with Q Q
1 fold, CO raises to $18, Hero raises to $60, 2 folds, CO calls $42

Flop: ($129.00) 2 7 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $88, CO calls $88

Turn: ($305.00) 3 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $196, CO calls $196

River: ($697.00) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ? ($847 remains)

FWIW, I think villain has KK almost as frequently as he has QQ/JJ/TT, and c/shoves the turn with KK almost never.

i check very fast here. The only thing a bet accomplishes is bluffing out KK which I dont think is a very large part of villain's range.

believe me spinoli i know u check very fast here

might be some timing tells i use here but checking doesn't seem awful since it seems unlikely he will call u down with TT/JJ. If he folds KK a bet mite be good. I think making this expensive of a merge is probably not good to fold out 6 combos and get value from 12 that he probably wont call with anyway

willw9 you honestly believe a giant nit is going to call you down with 99-JJ in this spot ever? Take it from someone whose had a lot of experience being the nit, no nit will call you with worse here. They will put you on AK/AA/Ax and say nh and fold. Even a non-nit wouldnt be paying off here I dont think.

i think i can work out who villain is, and i think that the villain im thinking of likes to hero call a bit sometimes.

i very much doubt he hero calls with worse here though

fwiw i would not have thought twice about checking the river if it was the 6c

chk

now im really confused. The 6c is a far better card for you to get value from than the 5c. 5x is really not in your perceived range and so you can value bet thinner. Ax is a huge portion of your percieved double-barrelling range and so you wont be able to get any value from QQ because of this.

im struggling to find a quick response to this, but essentially, come up with a turn barreling range for me, and then a river shoving range on each of the 2 rivers. which river range is wider? which includes more value hands, which includes more bluffs? which card would you feel more comfortable calling off your stack on as villain? the obvious answer to this last question seems to be the 6c, but why?

I should definitely add that villain bumhunts up to 25/50, and just because he is a nit, doesn't mean he doesn't have a brain.

your thinking too hard. The villain is just going to see 2345x on the board, noticed that you rr'ed preflop and think that Ax is a big part of your range and fold his 99-JJ. Remember its your PERCIEVED range in villain's eyes. No villain is going to do all this legwork during the hand, espically anyone playing lots of tables.

lol wat

so you're saying that when you play, you just kind of autopilot and not think about hands? wtf

i know u try hard to get better but if u truly stand behind this statement then the future isn't too bright for u bud

haha yeah, hes multitabling he prolly won't do any analysis on our line, he'll prolly just think ''duhhh, 2345, if he has an ace he has a stwait, aww i fold''.
And ur response to chk went completely w out saying spinoli.

We can argue back and forth whether some nit will actually call here with 99-JJ and we will never come to an answer unless we go and ask a bunch of nitty villains. SamH do you fold here? How about you chunmin? and you Leatherass? how bout you mypkrtime?

If the villain was you oldjude then maybe we'd have something to talk about because it appears you do think about willw9's line here on a deeper level. But thats not who the villain is.

u don't know who villain is.

also nittiness doesn't mean someone lacks coherent thought, which you are clearly alluding to. that would be a fish.

sure nits think, but i think your giving them too much credit. But your right I dont know who the villain is, perhaps if you told me it would give me more insight.

Im kinda suprised your argueing with me so much on this point since i am supposedly a huge nit and so is villain (and not you or oldjude or anyone else who replied in the thread) and we are talking percieved ranges here and I would percieve your range as Ax in villain's shoes.

this might be stupid question, but will, how many Ax hands do u think are in villains range? can he c/c flop with A high, then pick up flush draw+ gutter on turn for instance?? or is the best hand in his range a weirdly played KK?

because in terms of calculating the ev of betting, knowing how many hands beat us is pretty imperitive.

1. maybe something like 40% KK, 5% QQ (just cause I have it), 20% JJ, 15% TT, 10% AA, 10% other random ****...this is all a very rough approximation of his range for getting to the river

2. i dont ever see villain having an A except for AA

3. i dont think playing KK this way would be particularly "weird," probably not vs me anyway

.

if this is really the case and you really believe he will call you with JJ-99 here then he will also call w/ KK/AA and you wont get any value at all. Its probably not that bad since sometimes he folds KK when he shouldnt and calls with JJ when he shouldnt (your bet has some 2-sidedness to it that is in your favor) but still.

idk how you play tbh but you must be the biggest spew monkey in history to make flatting a 3bet 200bb deep oop with KK more +EV than 4betting

if your estimations are that you're only ahead 50% of the time on the river, then i dont see how you can possibly get value (since obv he folds sometimes he's behind) so unless u want to bluff out KK idk why u wud bet

If he folds KK here like ever then I like a bet for sure tbh

This river spot depends 100% on villan and also his image of you. Does he realize that KK is the same hand as basically any other pair here since 90% of people in this spot just insta check back with anything that has showdown value on a 4 straight board. Any bet on the river turns TT into basically a set. I think only OP knows if villan knows this. If he does know this then bomb away on the river. If not, the there is really no value here. I have no idea idea if that made any sense.

Edit: most nits don't think that much

yea same.

but OP was asking if theres value.