I have been lurking for a while and have learned a ton. A sincere thank you to all of you who are willing to pass on your knowledge.

I only have 18 hands on this villain, but he is 58/28 in my small sample. I kind of think that I should have double barreled the turn and folded to any aggression after that. From what I had seen so far, I thought that the villain was capable of bluffing, but I have been burned for thinking that in the past. Any advice on any street will be greatly appreciated.



[converted_hand][hand_history]Merge, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11025982

BB: $3.71 (92.8 bb)
CO: $3.32 (83 bb)
BTN: $4.02 (100.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $5.29 (132.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q A
CO folds, BTN raises to $0.16, Hero raises to $0.52, BB calls $0.48, BTN folds

Flop: ($1.20) 3 3 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.80) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2.39 and is all-in, Hero???

You can't really double barrel the turn here and then fold to further aggression -- he's got less than a PSB left.

So, really I guess it comes down to how much you feel you know about Villain after 18 hands. Is he bluffing with any 2 here?

Versus an unknown I'm c/folding this turn.

c/f he's not folding anything on the turn that he called with on the flop (44-JJ) except random overs maybe.

Your gutshot+2overs is not enough to call here unless you really possess some information of him being able to bluff often here. It's a fold.

C/F the flop, he is probably never folding anything on that flop.

Thanks everyone. Ziyu, why would you consider this a bad flop to c-bet? My reasoning to c-bet here is that I see three connected low cards and I have two over cards and a backdoor FD. There is a pair on board, but that reduces the odds that the villain has a 3, and if he does he will probably raise and then I can muck my hand and move on. I am not disagreeing with you, I would just like some insight in to the thought process.

Just check the flop and see what he does

I'm not really concerned about the villian connecting with the board any more than we have, even though he is very loose pre.

The problem as I see it, is what does he fold? He probably never folds a pair he calls pre with and probably doesn't fold the rest of his range. Also if we miss on the turn, we pretty much have to just C/F to pretty much any bet.


If he is folding he is probably folding to a 1/2 pot bet just as much as he is a 2/3 psb so you could save some bb's by betting smaller.

Good point about the bet sizing. I tend to have problems with that aspect of the game so I usually just c-bet around 2/3 unless the board is drawy and I feel that I have some equity.

i start by checking the flop and doing something that doesn't involve folding

You can't call this turn. There aren't many hands if at all that you beat on the turn so you're not getting the right odds.

The villain also flatted a 3bet in the BB with the BTN still to act after him. Irrespective of whether this is a good idea for the villain, this suggests that villain's range is weighted to pocket pairs - and he might even be trapping with premium pairs. It would be helpful to consider the BTN's statistics. If BTN is fishy, that makes it more likely that BB flatted in an attempt to draw BTN into the hand.

Matchstick, in a 3bet pot villain is very unlikely to connect in any way with a 223r board, but the problem is that you are very unlikely to connect with the board, which villain should realize if he is thinking (a big "if" at 4NL). So on this flop both of you should have either a pocket pair or overcards and be in the same position relative to each other as preflop.

Since villain is aggro and has position on you, I don't think your cbet on the flop is a big mistake, since you can fold out overcards and claim the pot which you would otherwise have to surrender when he fires on the flop and/or on the turn. (Though, as mentioned above, 1/2psb should do the job.) However, once you cbet the flop and get called, his range has a ton of pairs which are beating you and you have to c/f. It's possible that he is bluffing you, but this isn't the spot to bluff catch.

you're never barreling turn here right?

Very helpful analysis. I understand the concept that when trying to get a fold, we should bet the minimum possible to get the desired result, but what indicates to us that 1/2 PSB will work?

it's a 3bet pot. also, his range either hit the flop (or, can autocall a flop bet like PPs) or didn't so it doesn't really matter if we bet larger since he will have already made the decision to call or not regardless.

Maybe me laugh and fully agree. I would +1 it except I'd feel like a hipocrat.... Because I'm terrible, lol.