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uNL Stats Checkup Thread uNL Stats Checkup Thread

10-20-2010 , 02:27 AM
An extra note. Even if players were to notice, most will adjust in a way that's yet MORE moneys for you. Most will adapt by ... calling lighter without any plan whatsoever for the rest of the hand. It's pretty similar to players who fight back against an aggressive 3-bettor by agressively calling (lol) instead of 4-betting.

Very few players will answer aggression with more aggression and that's just great news for you. A lot of guys will also act similarly vs someone who barrels a fair bit. They'll start slowplaying everything into the ground and manage to stack off in ******ed spots because they wanna protect their hand, even though it's too late, or they'll value bet their set by donking the river when flush hits, and you just felt them with your flush that got there cheaply.

Don't get me wrong, letting an agressor spew and valuetown themself is a valid plan that you really should use. But there is a HUGE difference between doing it wisely with a plan while staying aware of how the board develops and when to stop slowplaying compared to just slowplaying like an imbecile without thinking about board vs opponent range. Also even if you do it well, you'll have to live with some suckouts now and then, such is the risk of slowplaying
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10-20-2010 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MBNdonk
Does anyone in here play 6 max 10NL? If so, I was wondering what your flop c-bet percentage is running at. I'm c-betting only about half the time because these guys seem to play back so often and this may be a major leak in my game. Would like to hear from someone who wins what their percentage is like.
Mines running at 76.7% Flop Cbet over 52.9k hands. I'm running at 4.89BB/100 so I dont think its a leak being this high up at these stakes.

edit: and Flop CBet% Success is running at 46.6%

Kaned

Last edited by KanedMan; 10-20-2010 at 03:04 AM. Reason: added Flop CBet success%
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10-20-2010 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by schism
@ 25hunterinraid

Your stats seem overall very reasonable. The only one that really looks sad is your W$SD. Maybe take a look at your hands by groupings and see which hand types seem to be leaking, then go over those issues. Probable culprits are suited connectors oop, maybe not stealing enough when they don't pan out, as well as small and medium pairs. Possibly too many showdowns with these / not turning them into a bluff. I might suggest c-betting less with made hands that don't require protection, either to see a cheap showdown or to induce bluffs from aggro villains. Once again I'm sort of guessing here, but I'd guess all of these are decent general ideas.

Also I noticed your non-showdowns, while reasonable, are still pretty steep in the negative. Possibly running bad put aside, maybe you can open up your game postflop somewhat, particularly in position, and see if that works for you. I've found at the very least, if your image gets tainted even decent regs will tend to get value towned a lot in the following hands (same with them imagining you're tilting after some unfortunate cooler).

Let us know your views on all this and maybe post your results by hand groupings.

PS: I know this is supposed to be a stat thread, but this might still be relevant. All the pretty numbers put aside, how do you actually feel at your tables? Are decisions easy, are your opponents transparent? Do you mix up your bet sizing in relation to villain's targeted range? And most importantly: which situations make you uncomfortable, how might you remedy those?
First of all thanks for the very useful post.
If my W$SD looks sad it means that.. i'm loosing too much when i see the showdown right? well.. i'm trying to also improve my hand reading skills, so maybe it will help to get into some sick calldown/ some tough fold. Probably here is where i'm losing money at SD, my graph with the filter river bet/call:


About steals, this is where i'm losing money i guess, my overall steal from small blind situation:


When i try to steal with 22+,AT+,KT+,QJ+,JTs (not so much money playing out of position indeed)


And the disaster, when i try to steal from sb without the cards above:


At my tables, i got to say, that i feel like i have an edge pretty much on everyone (sorry to appear arrogant, it's just my feeling), i also do tableselect..
The typical situation where i feel uncomfortable are in 3bet pots when i make a move with less than top pair, like calling ip with TT on K38 for example, but i have no idea on how to cut these losses, because if i decide to call at the 3bet i can't fold at the cbets so easily.
Also when stupid whales raise me on the river and i don't know what to do.. but we already saw i probably have to fold :P

(hand grouping: )



Any comment is welcome of course, thanks again
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10-20-2010 , 04:34 PM
(sorry the steal filter was wrong lol, forget it)
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10-20-2010 , 04:46 PM
What's your PFR from SB in unopened pot? At these stakes you should be able to have a substantial winrate in this spot with a pretty high frequency, supposing you don't steal from the 40 VPIP guy who floats every flop.
Also you have to c-bet quite a bit to make this profitable. I'd say 70%+ c-bet from sb when stealing from bb is probably sort of necessary. Remember overall, your steal doesn't need all that much success to be profitable. After all you get a little discount on stealing with half a bb already out there. You just need to be careful you don't spew oop to fish in this spot. Steal mercilessly from nits though.

Yeah about the W$SD, you really need to tighten up your river calling requirements for one. People just bluff less than you think, because they are just less competent. After all, how often do you see a fish c/c flop, c/c turn and donk his stupid river flush? Most players at micros are looking to hit a hand and value bet it, they don't multiple-barrel much and they typically don't know when to fire that third barrel on a missed draw, or are afraid they'll get called too much (which is often the case actually). To sum it up, don't try to be smart with thin river calls unless you have some justifiable read. This also implies that you should avoid turn calls that will put you in the situation of facing such a river decision.

Since you have a HUD, try to know your villains postflop. Against an aggressive guy who doesn't just c-bet and give up, you really should consider giving up more hands rather than peeling oop and guessing, and occasionally feeling like a prodigy when you make some thin call down (we all feel like that once in awhile, but looking at the math of the hand it's not always a deserved feeling). My point being, be more willing to give up against opponents who will barrel at you on the cards you hate. Against standard opponents, you've probably realised that at the micros, the 2nd barrel is rather rarely air, in the worst case it's a semi-bluff. So against opponents who like c-bet flop 70% but c-bet turn 30%, it's ok to peel planning to give up on the turn.

I'd advise considering all these things, plan the hand at least one street ahead. Sorry it's a bit jumbled, I just got out of a sort of long session after a tiring day and of course played like crap. Maybe someday I'll actually stop doing that
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10-21-2010 , 07:57 PM
Hi uNL forum! After going through a long losing streak, I'm trying to retool my game. I've dropped down to .1-.25, joined 2+2, got pokertracker, and I'm working on getting better. I'm here for my 10,000 hand checkup (I've been lurking for a while). Overall I'm pretty pleased with my results/play, but I'm sure there are leaks I'm missing. Here are my stats and graphs; any advice you can offer would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!



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10-21-2010 , 09:10 PM
Well all in all, that's pretty damn solid. Excellent winrate on that sample, solid stats too. VP$IP and PFR on the conservative side, but nothing nitty either. I'd say keep doing what you're doing, it's obviously working.

Only thing I picked up is low WTSD / high W$SD. Maybe you could take some time to think about what that might reflect in your play. If this were NL50+, I'd say it looks like a leak a bit. Judging from your red line and WWSF you're being aggressive postflop and in a lot of the right spots, even enough so to compensate those slightly high showdown requirements of yours.

Hope things still look as great at 50k hands, congrats!

Edit: I'm currently rebuilding a bankroll playing around the same stakes, moving to NL50 some time next month most likely. PM me if you'd be interested in some sweat sessions or just some mutual brain picking. I think we all profit from all the help and interaction we can get.

Last edited by schism; 10-21-2010 at 09:16 PM. Reason: an aside
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10-22-2010 , 08:42 PM
Hi guys. These are stats from all of my 20k or so hands at 25nl so far. The last 5k have been pretty rough.

Haven't been playing that long so there may well be some obvious things that stand out that I'm not picking up on.

Any input/feedback would be really appreciated. Thanks.



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10-22-2010 , 11:57 PM
Non showdown winnings, how important is it & how can I improve it?





Hope this is the right place to post this.
Thanks.
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10-23-2010 , 03:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parano1d andro1d
Hi guys. These are stats from all of my 20k or so hands at 25nl so far. The last 5k have been pretty rough.

Haven't been playing that long so there may well be some obvious things that stand out that I'm not picking up on.

Any input/feedback would be really appreciated. Thanks.
Overall very solid stats. Flop cbets could be bit more but you are around lower edge of good ballmark to be(60-70). Only critique is that you are bit too loose on blinds. Tighten up there. If you don't want to tighten overall game as a result loosen up on CO and button instead. Position is good to have. Being OOP on blinds suck.
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10-23-2010 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TLP
Non showdown winnings, how important is it & how can I improve it?
Lot less important than the green line Though finetuning red line isn't bad idea but you can crush the micro's while having negative red line. You can only get positive red line if opponents tend to fold which is not that popular action at uNL

Your winrate is 5.55bb/100 which is pretty decent. Could maybe be bit higher but since you are making profit at decent rate red line isn't undue concern.

But how to improve:

a) stop limping. Your stats is now 24/13. Way too big gap. Try not to have bigger gap between vpip and pfr than 4%. Limp call should be pretty much 0.
b) You seem to be playing pretty hit or miss. You hit big, you go berserk, you miss, you don't seem to be playing that aggressive.
c) Make plan for hand. Reduce the times you call 1-2 streets only to fold river.
d) VALUEBET THINNER! Common theory says valuebets are good for blue line and bluffs are good for red line. However thin valuebets are good for red line as well as opponents often fold to those adding to red line. And if opponents call it affects blue line either up or down. By increasing your valuebet amount you actually help your red line as well. I had yesterday nice over 1.5 bin up in non-SD. Most of it by valuebetting mercilessly. Only one real major bluff pulled. Rest were simply going bet-bet-bet when I had made hand and I bet reasonably big on flop+turn so that on river when he folded it added nice boost to red line(and I was sure on river I could get called by worse hand often enough to be good valuebet as well).
e) Stop limping Don't put dead money into pot you have to fold later.
f) check opponents stats when they are stealing. If they steal a lot and have decent fold to 3bet resteal occasionally rather than calling.
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10-23-2010 , 08:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parano1d andro1d
Hi guys. These are stats from all of my 20k or so hands at 25nl so far. The last 5k have been pretty rough.

Haven't been playing that long so there may well be some obvious things that stand out that I'm not picking up on.

Any input/feedback would be really appreciated. Thanks.



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Forgot to take into account that I usually get into games by creating new tables so end up playing HU for a bit quite often - perhaps that's why my blind stats are so loose?

Here's my positional stats with 3+ players.



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10-23-2010 , 08:28 AM
Agree with tneva mostly on all accounts. I think you can c-bet more profitably at these stakes, say 70-75% range. This will be specially true if you really favor position much more and INITIATIVE. Raise'em up baby!

This may seem absurd to you, but you can't imagine how many Sklansky bucks fish lose to you when they open complete sb, call your raise with ATC (yes, I do mean 62o) and then check/fold a crappy flop. Now you might be saying "omg, but that's so exploitable". Yes, yes it is. By Negreanu and other good players. But online fish are not those people and online regs pretty much don't complete their sb this way. Not allowing your right-hand neighbor to do this will give you initiative in position which is more valuable than your cards and will also train them to hand select. They will start folding or raising and you can define their range better.

Don't sweat your red line too much. At these stakes it is negative more often than not. Sure some sessions you might be able to brutally crush with like 1/3 of your winrate being non-showdowns, but a lot of the time even if you value bet thin and barrel lots of turns, fish will call you so much it'll still be negative.

If I were you, I wouldn't be concerned with graphed lines like all-in EV (stupidest stat ever, other than figuring if you're getting it in bad or not) and the infamous non-showdown. On the other hand, that W$WSF at 40%- seems nitty to me. You need to read ranges better and barrel turns more, then watch that move its sexy little number in the 45-50%. This will be a very good lead into having it at like 50%+ when you get used to NL50, making you a crushing reg at those tables.

Still, although it's a really small sample size to judge anything about your winrate, your stats are pretty solid and you should be winning comfortably for sure. Well done!
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10-23-2010 , 08:56 AM
Hey guys, I've been noticing a lot of us are discussing our elusive friend, the red line. I've been putting quite some bit of thought into it myself these days and I wanted to make a little independant post about it.

Now to any of you that may read this and think "well duh, I already knew all of that n00b, like you're gonna teach me anything", I say "well if you do that's good, I'm not trying to teach anything ground-breaking, just sharing a compiled version of my very basic thoughts on the matter and if it helps some people start their own train of thought, that's good". So here goes.

First I'd like to define what the red line exactly means. It is the money you win or lose in pots that did not go to showdown (again, duh everyone knew that, but still). So we chose to play our cards and we got to see a flop with them but we never got to see whose two cards were the luckiest because we don't play a card game, we play poker. Now two things affect this and I think it's good to realise they are two different categories.

1) We lost the pot without showdown:

I often comment about turn barrelling and thin value betting, not being showdown happy and winning pots this way, be it with or without a hand. I think it's very important and after all, a lot of what makes us feel good in a session is this feeling that cards were a luxury we didn't need all that much to win pots. But there is also the other issue.

When you elect to continue in a hand without initiative and peel, you need a plan. If that plan is "oh well I don't know, I'll see what he does on the turn", you have a problem. Actually I might go as far as saying you're not really playing poker and I'd be that critical with myself. If your reflection is "this guy doesn't barrel all that much, vs the range I think he has my hand is ok and I'm pretty confident I can c/f turn vs a bet because it'll be heavily weighted towards value", you are doing something right! Alternatively, if your plan is "this guy is a spew monkey and I think my hand fares well enough against his ridiculously large range, therefore I'll just call him down" you're doing something right... IF YOU CALL HIM DOWN. If you do this you need to buckle up, prepare for three streets of aggression and just not fold, unless some really specific read changes your plan.

The same goes for pots where you are the aggressor and get donked into at some point, or just stop betting and give up the initiative for the next street. Continue hand reading and don't just fold without some critical analysis of this guy's play and likely range vs board.

2) We won the pot without showdown:

This is all the times we bet our opponent out. I believe there are three common ways to improve this.

A- If you c-bet more on the right board, this goes up. This means being aggressive on those dry boards (AK7r) as well as being aggressive when you sort of missed, but you have like a 3-straight and 3-flush with one overcard. Plan ahead and barrel all turns that improve you AND all turns that are bad for your opponent. From there, barrel the river or not depending on the situation.

B- I sort of already said this, but be aware of the board and your opponent's range and barrel turns accordingly. You have 77 on a 3s2s9h board, you got called and the turn rolls off with a Q. Why in the world would that help them? If anything, it helps you (in their mind at least, supposing they're thinking about your hand). You need to barrel here because your pair is still vulnerable to anything 8 or higher and because you're value betting against their draws.

C- Value bet the river more. Now here I don't mean to tell you to spew ridiculously. Say you hold AJ on some A-high board and a pretty decent reg has called two streets already, it's unlikely he's calling you down with less in most situations. There's no shame in going for only two streets (be it flop+turn or flop+river depending on the situation), that's pot control and that's a very good thing .... except vs a complete fish whom you've seen show down 2nd pair or TPNK vs 3 barrels of aggression. In that case don't you dare not fire that river. I'd also like to add a little note on bet sizing. Try to be a bit imaginative about bet sizing. Specially on the river, 1/3 of the pot or even less can be optimal, an overbet can be optimal, don't just click buttons and make it something "unexploitable". Analyze the hand, as you've done on previous streets, and decide what the best bet is to target the range you want to target given villain's psychology/type of player.

These are just some of the random thoughts I've been mulling over about my own game recently. I'm pretty sure any MSNL reg would read this and go "lol n00b, there are still people who don't know all that?". But whatever, this is the uNL stat thread. Of course this is in no way a comprehensive post but the most important thing I wanted it to reflect was that stats are a result of how you play, leaks in stats are a result of real leaks. Play a solid, analytical aggressive game and your stats will always converge towards something pretty damn crushing. Just try to work on your game and have good ideas.
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10-23-2010 , 09:41 AM
Got my 11k hands and I'm posting stats right now. I'm a bit strugling at 2NL so any advice would be very helpful



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10-23-2010 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vitkis
Got my 11k hands and I'm posting stats right now. I'm a bit strugling at 2NL so any advice would be very helpful




Overall it really seems fine. Remember over 11k hands, variance is really quite huge. I'd advise to keep doing more of the same and see how it looks after 30k hands.
uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-23-2010 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vitkis
Got my 11k hands and I'm posting stats right now. I'm a bit strugling at 2NL so any advice would be very helpful
Well for starters stop limping. Don't limp. Your overall vpip is okay so raise up more.

Secondly call less from blinds. Your position there sucks.

Rest of stacks seems okay except aggression %'s. You could tune flop aggression bit higher but real issue I have is with turn and river. On turn you are very honest and then on river very bluffy. So either you play honest on turn and try to bluff on river(not that good idea) or you slowplay on turn which at NL2 is fancy play syndrome. Pretty unusual aggression %'s for you. I think you are first one on whom I see such aggression %'s as you do.

Could you explain what might cause that odd bump in aggression %'s? flop high, turn low, river high.
uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-23-2010 , 07:00 PM
Hey guys after a bunch of not very good sessions I decided to analyze a bit my game. So I found out this huge leak in my game(I'm so sure that is a leak). The problem is my river call. My graph is disastrous so the money that leaks out is.
I'd like to ask you'll to post some of your river call graphs
(filter:actions->river->call)
I'm so curious whether this graph everybody has that bad or just my one is that bad. And I'd also be very glad to take some advices from you how to fix it.
11k hands my WTSD is 29,05 and my W$SD after river call is 44,71%

Thanks
uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-23-2010 , 11:40 PM
I've checked a 33k hand sample or so @ NL25. For river calls I'm a massive winner, but an equally massive loser on check/calls. I guess it makes sense for calls in position to be more profitable than oop as you've played the entire hand with better information overall. To be quite honest though, even on that total sample these occurences, even put together, are a very tiny sample of their own so variance is still so massively dominating.

I'm not sure what should be expected, to be honest. But hey, I actually have good advice. As you probably have even fewer hands than I do to go over, why don't you go over them? Were those calls crap? That'll probably be a lot more useful than wondering what the stat should be
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10-24-2010 , 01:24 AM
fold to 3 bet 77% is this too high for 25nl?
uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-24-2010 , 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by african princee
fold to 3 bet 77% is this too high for 25nl?
It's high enough that you can be exploited pretty badly. You make it to 0.75, opponent makes it to 2.5, he needs you to fold 69% of times to be breakeven.

However it's completely fine to play exploitably if players aren't exploiting you.

This being uNL vast majority of players are NOT exploiting you

If you are unsure about your skill in 3bet pots it's better to lean toward side of caution. Err on the side of folding too much over calling too much. Folding too much is smaller error than calling too much.
uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-24-2010 , 10:15 AM
What tneva said. A solid reg might make your life hell, specially IP, if they notice that you are weak against 3-bets. But that's not too important, we play to be profitable and to play +ev situations. If you're uncomfortable 4-betting light or defending 3-bets oop (the even more scary proposition), well then either be weak against this player and try to target fish or just change tables. There's nothing really wrong with that, even though at some point you'll need to adapt and improve in that regard but you can choose how you do that and when.

I have one piece of advice I've found really cool to become more comfortable with aggressive preflop play. You can start 3-betting light yourself, particularly IP like BTN vs CO if you notice players who seem to have the same "leak" you do. I find often a great way to deal with something that bothers you is to do it yourself, put yourself in the driver's seat and do it to others. This will make you more comfortable with the inflation done to pots and with understanding the mindset of the aggressor.

If your opponent folds 70%+ to 3-bets, use a polarized range (premiums and weak holdings like suited connectors, suited kings etc). If your opponent defends a lot against 3-bets by calling and they are a loose player, use a depolarized range (AJ, KQ etc). The logic here is that you get value from the latter's dominated hands, whereas against the former you induce a mistake when he folds out hands far better than your bluffing range, but if you're 3-betting KQ he's only calling with AK/AQ but not the hands you could get value from by flatting.

Another lengthy post but I hope some ideas are helpful.

edit: if villain has a 5-6% 3-bet over 1k hands, please don't get all FPS and play back at them. Their range is still almost all value. If villain's range is really tiny, in the 2-3%, you might start thinking about set mining particularly in position if stacks allow it as they'll pay you off extremely often and tilt at your donkey calls preflop. Use your judgement though and don't spew, remember you won't be felting QQ or KK on an A-high flop even when you do flop your monster.

Last edited by schism; 10-24-2010 at 10:38 AM. Reason: know your enemy
uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-25-2010 , 08:28 AM
Hi all looking on improving my game, just wondered if anyone can see any major leaks in my game.

All Hands are from Rush Poker 3 tabling. 15k hands in maybe 2weeksish.









Few questions if anyone has any experiance on these issues:

1. My 3Bet % is fairly low in rush as you have little history with opponents. with a success of 37% should i increase my range a few %?

2. Am i turn c-beting too much>? as the sucess is 24% compared to 44% bet? Or is it more the spots im choosing to bet in more likely.?

3. Am i playing too passivley and going to showdown/rivers more often?

Cheers
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10-25-2010 , 09:37 AM
Hey guys! The advice i got here on my NL20 stats really helped my game and i went on to win 14bb/100 over 14k hands right after i changed my game up abit, thanks!

Now im having big trouble while taking a shot at NL50.

Here are my stats and graph, any comments are apreciated!



uNL Stats Checkup Thread Quote
10-25-2010 , 10:29 AM
I wanted to post this in here as I am trying to really open up my game a lot, and this was just over 3000 hands that I played over a few days.

I ran horribly, and as a result was like $80 or so down, however my EV said that I should be breaking even pretty much.

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