Just recently upgraded to PT3 and been checking out my showdown vs non-showdown winnings graph.

I only have 3000 hands in there so far but the non-showdown winnings is a steady line down, about $60 down so far at $25NL. My showdown winnings are well over $100 though so I'm doing ok overall.

I basically just want validation that your non showdown line on that graph is supposed to slope downward and that no one at micro full ring wins or even comes close to breaking even in that category.

If you run TAG-ish stats and play a (solid) ABC style game, it's typical that your redline will be a steady decrease. The goal is to get the slope as shallow as possible. However, it IS possible to expand the ABC game one step further and get your NSD to break even or slightly +$, with things like like 3-betting, double barreling, squeezing, floating, stuff like that.

As your hand reading improves, so too should your redline.

But certainly, if your line is a downward slope, I would not just shrug it off and go, "Well it's typical to be losing in NSD anyways." I'd make sure that you are losing as little as possible.

Alternately, if you want max variance, play like CJ and your redline will be a gradually increasing upward slope, while your winnings line will be a plot of the function y = {random}x

I did last month between $25 NL and $50 NL. I think it's less common in the micro stakes just because the style of play it takes to beat them. Actually the first half of the month at $25 NL I was losing, and then when I switched to $50 NL it turned around and I started profiting nearly each session in that category enough to put me in the black. I think you'll start to see an improvement when the game gets to a point where you're winning more from stolen blinds and blind defense.

25nl and what little 50nl I have played.

Yeah, actually right after I posted I realized this was supposed to go into the stats/graphs thread. I even tried to delete the OP but apparently that's not an option.

Anyway, I was checking out some of the graphs in that thread and interestingly enough it seems that often times the green winnings line is inversely proportional to the redline. This really shouldn't be the case since winning non showdown are winnings just the same and should move the greenline up as well. But it seems that maybe as people are opening up their game they go too far and are just spewing at that point, I'm sure this is particularly easy to do at the micros where opponents are the most reticent to fold.

It wouldn't surprise me if the people being the most patient and bluffing less often/firing less shells do better overall at uNLFR.

Seriously though, go check out some of those graphs and look at their redline spikes and how it affects their overall winrate. Conversely notice how a lot of times when the redline is really dipping sharply their winnings are blowing up huge.

Damn, that's a sick graph yz10. Mine looks nothing like that at the moment but I guess we'll see after 50K hands.

That's all fullring right?

Yea on full ring. Couple K of 6-m in there where I spew, but mainly full ring.

I think basically all bad redline is due to fit/fold and calling without a reason and then folding to further aggression.

Sort of agree with some of I vi ii's post, mainly the stuff on handreading.

OP, how do u post so much and still not know answer to your question?

Your redline shouldn't be a primary concern and depending on the types of games you are in it won't really matter all that much. But it is 2009 and uNL is full of loose passives and nits that you can take advantage of.
Positive red lines are by no means an indication of a good game and vice versa but it's very possible, the reason why not many people at uNL have +redlines is that they usually win and therefore move up.

redline is def overrated, focus on the overall money won line

Although this is true to a point, it's probably an indicator of some leaks if it's quite a bit down into the red, I know it was in my case.

Once I started limping less preflop and entering more pots for a raise or 3-bet my red line started to show an immediate improvement. It's easier to pick up pots without showdown if you're taking the lead preflop and know what spots are good to fire c-bets when unimproved. Also isolating limpers or players that play fit or fold on the flop will help out your red line.

agreed, I dont think this line has too much value until you start hitting mid to high stakes. Keep an eye on it , but don't but too much focus on it just win your money and move up.

Sometimes I think this line tells you more about the tables you're choosing to play than your particular game if you adapt to table conditions. If you choose loose tables and play tight, ABC poker, you are getting pushed off some hands by aggression while you wait for a good spot. If you choose to play tight tables and attack, your redline will be less negative because you are taking advantage of FE more often.

100% way to have a positive redline:

Bet / raise every street. Never fold.

Your winrate will be awful, but your redline will be rockstar.

i mean if u kinda think about it since micros has so many fish that dont like to fold and that dont bluff a ton. Your GOING to get to showdown more. And your going to be less inclined to bluff fish.

Just to prove it's possible at the uMicros, this is from 5NL. Sorry for the thinly failed brag. Yeah it's not exactly positive overall (damn!)but you get the idea.


Playing true "poker" at these levels will get you there. Identify opponents tendencies and exploit them. Way to many villian's at 5NL call too much to chase, identifying spots where they missed and will/can fold is helpful. Not everyone is capable of folding, but enough are. It's not necessary to focus on this to beat the level but it can be leaving money on the table to disregard it entirely.

To piggy back Zlax:

Break-even Non-SD winnings are reasonable for aggressive winning players (Break even meaning slightly +/- compared to overall winrate).

Your big winnings (fat value) comes when your opponents CALL. Your big leaks (frequently) come when you CALL.

Therefore, when you fix your leak, your non-SD winrate generally goes down while your winrate goes up (discounting the fact that fixing your leak might be to raise instead of calling).

If your opponent fixes their leak, your non-SD winnings will improve, but your overall winrate will get worse.

Steeply negative non-sd winrates can frequently be indicative of overly passive play though, so you should look at your aggression if you think you're loosing to much outside of showdowns. From Zlax's graph, his winrate and variance suggests a great deal of aggression.

In summary, working on making your non-sd winrate positive is unlikely to drastically improve your bottom line. However, being more aggressive WILL improve your non-sd winrate and (likely) your bottom line as well.

And again, if all you want is a rockstar non-sd winrate: bet/raise every street and never fold. Your % winning-hands will also be the envy of your friends. Just don't show them your account balance.

IT IS ABOUT MANIES

TAKE SOME ****ING MANIES

I can make my redline break even or better when I do play a 18/16+ type style but my im almost always losing money at the end of the day. Im just not good enough at recognizing what spots to slow down when im playing this style and to get away from the spots where the fish isn't gonna fold.

I end up playing my 12/10 type game and watch the redline go down but the green line goes up. For me right now its just about avoiding those spots where i make bad decisions, and there are enough fish that dont pay attention that i just wait for them to make a mistake. Im a reg at 25nl so it works for now.

Doublesooted hit the important point with 'the green line goes up'.

[Some pure speculation here:]

For TAG's and superTAG's, most of the redline is probably the blinds. The blinds amount to 8 ptBB/100 or so. There is a reasonable chance that your non-SD winnings is positive in almost every other position because you play strong starting hands and bet aggressively.

[End speculation]

This is NOT bad. There are many ways to win at poker, and thank goodness for that. The games would be painfully hard to beat if there was only one way to win.

inb4IFs

If you lose some money in non-showdowns there is someone who is winning that money...

A bad redline might be a good sign! If you always get paid off when you got a good hand and fold your bad hands, you will have a terrible red line and sick blue line... with a very nice green line!

Keep in mind that pushing people out of the pot when you got a huge hand is a bad thing even if it improves your red line. Focus on the green one!

Jimmyjack got his **** straight.

- Filter out blinds from your sample and see how your non showdown winnings are then.
- The thinner you bet for value, the more you should see a transference of showdown winnings to non-showdown winnings. If, as a rule, your thin value bets are well placed you should find that overall this tranference should see an increase also in your green line.
- Seat select better where you emphasise your capacity to act last....i.e. be less concerned with being on the right of the loose players but having tight players to your left. You will find that acting last more often will increase non- showdown winnings as well as it should allow you to open up your button exploitation range (blind stealing range).
- a heavily negative redline will also likely mean you are pot controlling too much and it will also mean you are likely folding the best hand alot on the flop or turn.

check out Iflatthenuts' graph. He's the only guy I've ever seen with a heavily positive red line at 2nl and 5nl. He's got nuts and he's gone nuts.