Villain is a winning 5/10 reg. He is good, tricky and can mix it up. I have played a decent amount with him (6.2k hands)

stats are 27/20 (7% three bet as well as 7% squeeze)...fold to c-bet is low (37%), but thats prob irrelevant in this spot as an overcaller.


Here are a couple semi-relivent notes on him:

chk back a set on a 245cc flop when i (the pfr) chked to him

crai instead of cbetting AKss on a Q94 one spade flop in three bet pot (100bbs)


Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $917.00
BTN: $1114.25
SB: $3290.00
BB: $1015.00
Hero (UTG): $2294.00
MP: $1000.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, BTN calls $35, SB calls $30, BB calls $25

Flop: ($140.00) 4 9 A (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $100, BTN calls $100, SB calls $100, BB folds

Turn: ($440.00) Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $290, BTN folds, SB calls $290

River: ($1020.00) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ($1870 effective)

with his preflop stats/blind calling range, and the flop dynamic , i dont see much worse calling us. he really only has a set or a weak ace on river, and im not sure hes calling a third barrel after we bet into 3 people with a weak ace. i think the only worse hand he calls river with is a9.

pretty easy chk for me on river.

check, nh. think i like checking turn a little better

prefer this as well.

You guys must be seeing something I don't. But no way in god's green earth I check top two pair on this board on the turn with the chip stacks involved here.

WOuldn't a set c/r turn or bet into us on river?

To me, SB calling us down fits pretty well with SB two pair special like 94s, A4s, A9s, or perhaps AJs, ATs, Axs does it not?

I don't think checking river is terrible, but I value bet river here, 1/3 - 1/2 pot.

I just can't see a BDFD or set checking the river.

Again, if you have that sinking feeling in your stomach, fine check river. But given the board/betting progression, I've got to think AQ is good here majority of time and that villian calls.

a good reg isn calling oop multiway with 94, and he sure as hell isnt calling 3barrels for stacks with AT or AJ multiway against an UTG open.

meh, he's a nice guy who i believe plays live (see his location and posts). i don't think he believes these hand ranges are optimal, either, he just is speaking from observation about his opponents' ranges here.

this analysis doesn't have much relevance to the hand as played online but i think most could deduce that anyway and we could point it out to him softer.

you guys are insane if you are checking this river

Is hero some enormous nit that just never gets paid?

easy value bet in live games imo

youre right, i made edits.

i just would hate for a thinking player to spew money here. i care for him lol.

What?

Definitely bet against a competent opponent and it's not even remotely close. The sizing and whether it's b/f or b/c is debateable. I guess I'd b/f $500.

definitely prefer betting the turn, just about all of his Ax hands are Axs, so he will have a decent amount of Axhh hands that we can get value from.

I think I might check the river, just don't know you have 50% vs his calling range unless he is quite cally.

GTO 4 Lyfe.

not quite sure why you say definitely bet vs a "competent opponent", if anything that should make you probably less inclined to bet IMO because they are rarely calling with worse and sometimes c/jamming worse as a bluff.

yah this is a check.
theres a lot of ax/9x in his range and not very much at all that calls you.
i guess you could bet like 350 and by some miracle you might get called but i dont think its worth the chance of getting cr'd here.

nvm, I managed somehow to overlook villains AhXh hands, which are definitely a major part of his range. It might just be a check back, at least if villain never donkbets this river (which he should IMO).


If the flop had been 4d9sAh instead, this should be a v clear bet, assuming villain isn't slowplaying sets too often and that he will call our bet often enough to not get exploited.

exactly

Agreed

I'd probably check the river and always bet the turn, unless the sb c/c's a9,a4 on the flop there isn't a huge amount to get value from and after the river alot that has you crushed, not to mention the times he c/r's all in as a bluff.

Seems like a check. We are def betting JT/hearts/gutters etc on this turn and no way we should check turn and have button check like 90% of the time.

Even if he calls AJ 100% and we ignore hearts it's breakeven bet.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20 games 0.005 secs 4,000 games/sec

Board: Ad 9s 4h Qh 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 40.00% 10.00% 8 2.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 40.00% 10.00% 8 2.00 { 99, 44, AQs-AJs, A9s, AQo-AJo }

But this ignores the fact that he will have some worse Ax or AK some % and decide he has to call that river since we are prob betting hearts always with missed bluffs.

please give us a calling range for a competent 5/10 reg which makes betting the river +ev, considering the fact that we bet into 4 people on the flop, and then 3 on the turn

Few things, I'm in the bay area, 49s is the San Fransisco 49ers and lots of people in this area play 49s.

ALso, he is the small blind, BTN called the raise, its a multi-way pot, and they are way beyond 200+BB, in these cases its not unheard of for people to do the whole 'implied odds' thing and call from the SB with suited cards. Granted, 49s is a stretch unless you are in the Bay Area, but not Axs.

This is what is throwing me a little bit and making me think AQ is good.

Given the board dynamics and betting, would SB check a set on this river?

Would a BDFD check the made flush on the river?


To generalize a little bit here, isn't the typical line that everyone with decent hands bets flop and turn fairly hard then on the river, if river is any kind of scare card, check river (when IP)?

So given that, I just think its hard for a decent regular to check river when he has a monster into someone who fired two decent bets into him. The line that makes most sense to me is that SB hit two pair with suited Ace Rag.

IMO, that fits the SB c/c'ing down to the river, does it not?

Or put another way. If you flopped set or backed into the flush, would you check river here in hopes of a c/r?

Competent reg is never leading river with a set/flush (or any hand with this line).

Yes AQ is good here a lot, nobody is arguing that, but thats not a good enough reason to bet. For betting to be good we need to know that more than 50% of the time villain calls us we have the best hand.

I think that even if villain has A4s here on the river, that calling is pretty bad in his position.