Thanks Alex.
I really hope FT is soft since Im moving there as soon as I get my new PC running.

Fair point that your already a NL100 winner, just pointing out that this would be bad for anyone without the same experience as yourself.

To OP -
Variance is sick, if you like equations you can read "Mathematics of Poker", you can work out variance in terms of standard deviation.

The thing is not to be too concerned. If you lose a few buyins move down (repeat this step as nessasary).

More importantly
- Read forums, post hands, do the maths, reveiw HHs.
Repeat as nessasary and variance will take care of itself.

I've never had a downswing of more than 5.5 at the $50 in ~165k hands. But see my location.

ehh....still a small sample size

also, i think ur "lucky" in that ur variance doesnt all come crashing down at once. thats how mine, and quite a few ppls, happen

I think I'm lucky to. Every hand that goes by I wonder how really lucky though.

I've been grinding 25NL since a withdrawl in August. Before that I played up to the 400NL tables...but usually the 50-100NL tables. I've got some experience.

That being said, I'm just treading water since mid-September. Lost about 16BI in a coupla weeks, build it back, lose some more.

Last night was a 'typical' down session for me. I was playing three tables and was card dead on all for the first hour. I usually show enough discipline to get through spots like this. At one point I think I went 140 hands without playing to the flop except when calling the BB. Card dead and down a BI or so.

Then I pick up a coupla good hands...but not good enough. Run into a cooler. Then another. End up the session down 3.5BI... playing well IMO.

String a three or four days together like this and you can get to 10-12BI downswings with ease.

The good news is that it can go the other way too.

Downswongs are bad. They change your game drastically. Last 20k hands - break even. I hate it. It starts a week ago - very bad card run. It lasts about 2-3 days. Then this swong halves my AF, went from 6 to 3. I saw everywhere monsters! EVERYWHERE! Now still I have very big troubles to get my old agressive game back and its cause tilt to me. Today tilted 4 buy-ins because this [censored] downswong.

If you are playing well and not tilting, changing games, etc, it would not be unusual to have downswings of 6-8 buy-ins. The problem for me (and many others from what I can discern) is that rarely do people continue playing their “A” game when during a downswing. A typical pattern that leads to more significant losses might look like this:

1. Take a bad beat or two (or three)
2. Overplay a few hands trying to get it back
3. Run bad and get frustrated
4. Tilt, then tilt some more
5. Switch games and styles, i.e., go from FR to 6-Max and try to be a LAG or try some heads up
6. Batten down the hatches and think you have gotten your head together. Maybe even win back a few buy-ins
7. Take another bad beat or two
8. Go on major tilt until you finally right the ship

Doing this put me on a 16 buy-in downswing once. Fortunately I never violated my bankroll management practices (I was almost ready to move up so this put me back at the beginning of the level I was on but I was ready to drop down if necessary).

Long story short, downswings happen and are a natural part of the game. The real bankroll busters, however, are usually more a result of factors beyond the felt and have to do with how well you can control your emotions and stay off of tilt.