Ignition 5nl - 9 handed
No reads on villain

Looking for thoughts on the river decision/analysis, but feedback on other streets welcome also.

Hero: UTG+1, $5.07, AQ
Villain: BB, $5.28

PREFLOP
Hero raises to $0.15, Villain calls

FLOP ($0.32): AKT
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.21, Villain calls

TURN ($0.74): Q
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.45, Villain calls

RIVER ($1.64): 3
Villain bets $2.50, Hero activates timebank, Villain flashes the sunglasses emoji , Hero?


Looking back I think the hands he could be doing this with that I beat are:
AT (6 combos), KQ (6), KT (9), QT (6) = 27 combos

Chopping with AQ = 4 combos.

I think hands he's beating me with are:
JJ (6), TT (3), AJ (8), KJ (12), QJ (8), TJ (12) = 49 combos

Which gives me 36% equity. Calling $2.50 to win $6.64 I need 38% equity. Is this analysis right?

I think your math is about right there, but feel like your turn bet would have pushed out anyone who doesn't have the jack, as that's what you're representing when that queen comes out. It's possible that he's bluffing on the missed flush draw, but I'd be putting that at KT/K9/T9s, compared to all of your combos of jacks (JJ/AJ/KJ/QJ/JT).

He's got a good bluffing spot here too - he needs to win 2.50/(2.50+1.64) = 60% of the time, and an UTG+1 10% open raising range has AJ and JJ, and then a ton of other hands that get a good piece of this board (AA/KK/AK/AQ/KQ/QQ/TT) but get beaten by the straight. He's got the right odds to bluff here, but based on his calling range that shouldn't fold the turn, I don't know if you have the right odds to call.

Checking turn would have been better.

AP-I I would fold the river.