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Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25)

05-31-2008 , 10:40 AM
The player seems standard, hasn't made any crazy moves but I can't be sure as I hadn't been sitting long enough to develop a good read.

I really struggle with these types of situations. I'm not sure if an insta-shove is hoping for a fold or a call on this board. How often is it a worse 2-pair? Top pair with a draw? pair with a flush draw etc?

Can I call here?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

MP: $12.10
CO: $27.15
Hero (BTN): $25.55
SB: $2.75
BB: $24.95
UTG: $23.80

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with J T
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) T J 9 (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $23, [color=red]Hero....
Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Quote
05-31-2008 , 10:55 AM
I'm calling here without hesitation. There are so many hands that you're ahead of, and with top two you're even ahead of the very best of Villian's possible combo draws. If he's got QK or a set here, so be it - and you still have a few outs vs. the straight and 99.
Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Quote
05-31-2008 , 11:03 AM
Depends on the player, but generally I call just due to how drawy the board is. 8x clubs, Qx clubs, and Kx clubs could do this, sometimes even AcJx.
Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Quote
05-31-2008 , 11:18 AM
W/o reads, it's very dificult, so I would fold and wait for another spot. If you don't want to get annoyed with that, I think you're behind. His range (given his shove) es JJ-99, KQ, AJ+ (not so confident).

Maybe he's raising to protect his set in this infernal board, maybe he's beggging for you to fold to his F/SD. I would wait.
Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Quote
05-31-2008 , 11:22 AM
Heres how you are doing agaisnt poss hands.

Youa re beating:

v AA = 67%
v 88 = 63%
v AcKc = 57%
v Tc9 = 85%
Any 2 clubs, not 8c7c. = 60-68%

Coin flip:
v QQ = 49%

Dog:
v KcQc = 13%
v 99 = 19%
v TT= 11%
v JJ = 2.5%
v 87 = 19%
v 8c7c = 14%

Pot = $31.1
Need to call $18.95
Odds = 1.64 = 61%. So you need to win 39% of the time to break even. Ithink its close, but I think you might have to make a crying call. What are the villain's stats. If he is mega loose and aggressive, call, if he is a tight regular, I think you might have to consider yourself beaten. Im not sure, I tried to do a Harrington type analysis, but I realised its quite difficult!!!
Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Quote
05-31-2008 , 11:25 AM
Add to those

AcJx = 79%

. I think there are enough hands that are making this play for you to call profitably. I dont know, its true that you could wait for another spot, but the idea is to try and see if this spot is +ve or -Ve EV, simple as that.
Two Pair on Drawy Flop (NL25) Quote

      
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