Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
BTN ($68.29) [VPIP: 53.8% | PFR: 30.8% | AGG: 18.2% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 13]
HERO ($60) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 35.9% | Flop Agg: 42% | Turn Agg: 29.3% | River Agg: 32.1% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | Fold to 3-Bet: 58% | 4-Bet: 15.8% | Hands: 420201]
BB ($62.41) [VPIP: 21% | PFR: 15.2% | AGG: 38.7% | Hands: 1828]
UTG ($53.96) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 41.4% | Hands: 2527]
HJ ($99.37) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 538]
CO ($132.68) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 15.3% | AGG: 33.5% | Hands: 722]

Dealt to Hero: A T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $1.43, HERO Raises To $5.54, BB Folds, BTN Calls $4.11

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.7 effective]
Flop ($11.58): J 5 5
HERO Bets $8.68 (Rem. Stack: $45.78), BTN Calls $8.68 (Rem. Stack: $54.07)

Turn ($28.94): J 5 5 2
HERO ?

Nothing but a bdsd and 1 oc. I don't think you have enough value to polarize. Why bluff this hand?

This is a decent hand to bet but not great. I think I bet it at a fairly low frequency and mostly check. Clubs are good to have. I think we prefer hands with two overcards KQ but I'm not sure if a hand like AK or AQ are better bets given their showdown values. QT and KT I bet fairly often too. wheel draws mandatory bluffs i think

unblock floats/block Jx.

not sure about cbetting big with this hand

Looks like a clear turn bet high freq at least), what else do you guys want... Large % of his folds will come from QT-ATs bdfd.

Think the size we use is small, cages his pp and two overcard float really well. Going too big (2/3 ish) allows him to pure fold all those air hands, and jam his Jx forcing us to b/c some A high I think (cuz lol pot odds)

Even with this flop size, we should still be able to cbet 65% of our range, and the x will be built around underpairs, JJ, hands like T9s etc

Why the large flop size? Are villains at NL50 making fewer mistakes against a 33% sizing?

My cbet sizing OTF is too big - i should of gone 50%.

Solver would almost never go 1/3 here since we have advantage at the top of range.

Had T66r in my database, solver slightly prefers 2/3 over half pot as well so you are good.

Here's how it looks like

thx for the solve

Interesting. I'd go 33% here like always. No complain so far.

My intuition was that solver prefers larger size OTF. I checked in GTOWizard and it agrees with GTO+

Flop:



and just because, here is turn:

I think a 40-50% sizing puts his mid pairs/AQ in most trouble and leaves you 2/3 otr
as far as choice of hands to bet, op/good tp are betting a lot, the few gs, a hand like TT makes some sense cause he prob shouldn't be folding TT-88, then we got KQ/KTs/QTs which have priority over AT, you'l prob use some more 2 overs like AQ for better blockers/coverage on high rivers and that leaves AK as a clear x candidate and AT somewhere in between. the weaker stuff like A9/A8/T9/Q9 I'd more likely x cause no future profitable rivers in sight and it's not exactly a board where you can push your advantage to the extreme

when thinking about how much I want to be betting, I just quickly think about
1.texture, J high so I have QQ+ and he doesn't, but two 5 which he has more of so I can't go completely nuts but I get to airball a bit more all in all,
2. how much he needs to be defending + spr, figure out the indifferent hands in his defending range and target with a good bet size (if my range doesn't clearly dictate I use a different size), also keep in mind spr and room to maneuver otr. be extra careful when exposing myself to getting jammed off my eq
3. river play, do I get to play aggressively, preferably high freq jamming or some other exploit line I've studied and cross checked against pop tendencies. this is where I feel you're going wrong in some hands you post, you tend to tunnel vision on flop and turn in a vacuum and forget about what you're left to deal with otr, like I've seen you narrow their ranges too much and then have no good options, I mean no one can play their way around a bad river situation they've put themselves in, sometimes you just don't have any options.

so if you knew he's over folding mid pairs/2 overs then you'd pure bet the mixed combos, if he's a bit of a station and not folding enough, than vice versa obv + cut some more marginal ones. also keep in mind the hand doesn't end when you x turn to xf. he can x/ and then we have some river bluffs, together with the decent Jx or better we also x ott. sometimes we get more bluffs through that way, like when he x/ a pretty capped range and then overfolds to an exploit river block with his weak pairs and overs, that can def be the more profitable line, low risk/ high reward, best of both worlds.

in this hand, I don't think it matters in the least what you choose to do with a mixed combo like AT, because not being able to show up with AT otr won't matter in either node. it matters when you can't have enough river bluffs when you bet turn and it matters when you don't have enough bluff catchers when you x, in a nutshell. what will matter a lot more is how well you play the final street.

was going to go on a bit of a philosophical rant about the end game in chess but I have to go now. mby later xD

Is flop sizing optimal against an unknown who, using Bayesian logic (he’s VPIP’d 8 of 14 hands now, the chance someone with a true VPIP of 24% would VPIP 8 of 14 hands is around 1%), is converging on a bit of a splashy fish?

If that’s true, flop size doesn’t do much for us at all as he’s calling all pairs and folding his weak crap we have beat anyway


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Feel free to rant any time

Thanks for the response.

In my solve it has this combo at 100% % frequency bet because it unblocks the floats but all the other ATs are checked.

It's a good point. Flop sizing should be smaller as an exploit.

I'm still working on figuring out true vpip here - is this calculation correct?

No you have to go with X >= x as the sample exceeds the expected value (p*n = 0.24*13 = 3). I wouldn't test for such small samples though, especially in blitz as you could have encountered him in the BB 7 times for example.

Also, use the one that calculates intervals, I think it;s a bit more intuitive and easier to use for you: https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mb...applets/p.html

Thx Nacho - one day I'll get it!

Possible but seems unlikely. Yes it’s more likely they’ve a disproportionate amount of BB hands in a zoom poker sample, but I’m still pretty sure that if a guy who has entered 7 out of 13 hands prior to the current one enters again, that he’s converging fast on a guy who plays too many hands

This all being said I do like this convo as a barrel hand, blocking AJ, JTs and A5s


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