PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 99.2 BB
SB: 336.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: 393.3 BB
Hero (UTG): 187.6 BB
MP: 144.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 45.4 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 T

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) K T 6
Hero bets 3.6 BB, BTN calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (14.7 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 9 BB, BTN calls 9 BB

River: (32.7 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets 25 BB, fold



How is the hand played in general? And then fold river here or occasionally call bluffs? Which combos are you calling with, if any?

At first I thought this was a snap on the river, but I think it needs a little closer consideration.

First let's see how much equity we need to call profitably otr. 25/82.7 ~ 0.3, so we need to be good around 30% of the time. What bluffs does villain have on the river? Well, let's assume he does not turn a pair into a bluff. Then it's mostly missed fds and bdfds.

For bricked fds there are AQs, AJs, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, 54s. I think most villains 3bet AQs/AJs at some frequency, so let's remove one of them. So that's 6 combos.

For bricked bdfds there is similarly, AJs, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s. I'm not sure if the wheel Ax call this flop for 1/2 pot, but they probably do.

So at most I think there are 11 bluffs total. This means villain needs to have < ~25 value combos to make this a profitable call. Exploitatively we can assume that most villains do not bet this kind of river thin for value. Additionally, they will raise nearly all strong value hands ott given the texture of the board. So I think villain will pretty much only have 8x hands here and maybe QJhh/QJdd that is slowplayed for value.

The 8x hands are: 88, 78s, 98s (11 combos). So that's a total of 13 value combos.

Seems like a call right? Well, in reality I think villains tend to check back their Ax bricked draws A LOT. So I actually think we can remove the flopped nfds from their bluffing range. This leaves just 6 combos of bluffs. Still a call though, but barely.

As you can see a lot of this is guess work, but in the end I think it is a call. (Don't expect it to be a super profitable spot though).

It's NL10 I would assume he has every single combo of QJo/QJs. Also he can have a bunch of 8x dd and you forgot at least T8s/K8s. Once again, NL10, people routinely flats Q8s and stuff like that, readless we have to considerer it's at least a possibility.

It's still close, my first inclination is to call river but the more I'm looking at it the more I want to fold. The thing is his he almost always has at least a pair with the missed FD and I think most people don't turn a pair into a bluff, so we basically hope he has exactly Axdd.

The decive factor is : how much AQo/AJo does he have ? If he floats those it's definitly a call. If not probably a fold.

Side note : value bet river is not absurd, we look polarized when we barrel that card and I expect him to hero most Kx/Tx. Check obv makes a lot of sens but something to considerer if V is a weak passive station which is a pretty common profile, we can exploit that by blockbetting river or even go for the hero 2/3 super thin value bet and feel like a boss when he snaps KJo.

I think even if he has QJo that nearly all the time they will raise ott. You could well be right about there being more 8x potentially though. Depends wildly on player/pool.

We have a pretty nice bluff catching hand. I'm pretty tempted to x/c this river.

Against the majority of the population I play against, I am check/snap calling this river and being shown diamond bluffs and naked kings A LOT. Occasionally you will run into a better hand, but when you check that river it will induce a bet from a weaker hand a lot of times.

Looks fine, only spot is river is likely a call. You'd expect on that turn that made hands would raise if you bet out 2 streets like that.

Thanks for all the replies so far, are we still calling even though V is betting river at 3/4 pot?

This is a fairly good flop for your range, but I prefer check-calling middle pair on the flop, as you have other combos that make more sense as triple barrels either for value or as a bluff. If you bet flop, then barreling turn when you improve is good/fine. (On other turns, you're in a horrible spot, as villain's floats will accidentally be quite balanced, making your hand nothing more than a bluff-catcher).

As played, the river seems really close. I can't argue strongly one way or the other.